NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
It’s a quiet day on the NBA front (I think there might be a big game happening for another sport later on Sunday), so there are only two games.
That’s just fine because we still have some quality options to choose from, and both games have reasonable totals, although the spread is 11 points in one of these games compared to four points in the other.
1. Ja Morant is driving to the hoop 21.0 times per game
It’s going to be an interesting clash because Ja Morant is scoring almost 15 points per game from this play type, but Boston is 10th in points per game allowed in the paint along with allowing the third-fewest field goals per game within five feet of the basket. The loss of Marcus Smart makes their perimeter defense more vulnerable, and the FTN Advanced DvP Tool tells us that Boston is only 18th against primary ball-handlers and 19th against superstars. Morant is going to challenge their rim protection often on Sunday.
2. Boston is also 18th against scorers
On paper, it’s not the best matchup ever since the Celtics allow a 3-point frequency under 37%, but Desmond Bane is showing he can be productive even when that aspect doesn’t work for him. In the past two games, he only took 12 shots in each and went 4-for-12 from a 3-point distance combined. That’s in sharp contrast to his seasonal rate of 43.2%, but even still, he scored at least 38.5 DK points in both games. The rebounding and assists ticked up slightly for him, and if you find Ja Morant to be too expensive, Bane is a solid choice at a lower cost. If his shot gets hot despite the matchup, he could easily vault 40 DK points.
3. The Grizzlies are second in defensive rating
I’ll preface this by saying Jaylen Brown is also missing for the Celtics, but the loss of Marcus Smart hasn’t had the most positive effect on Jayson Tatum this season –
The FTN NBA Splits Tool shows it has been slightly negative, although it has to be said that in three games without Brown as well, Tatum does go to 57 DK points. With it only being a three-game sample, the rates matter as well, but those aren’t as great as you would think. In almost 520 minutes this year without Smart and Brown on the court, Tatum carries a 33.6% usage rate but only 1.29 points per minute. I believe I’ll be lower on the field on Tatum on Sunday.
4. Killian Hayes has been starting for the Pistons
He has been abysmal shooting the ball in the past two games since re-entering the starting lineup, but the minutes have been there, and that’s what we’re chasing. You have to hope he can hit something in the course of the game, but the 44.7% true shooting rate would lead you to believe it may not happen often. However, the Raptors are 23rd against dimers and 14th against primary ball-handlers. The salary demands very little, and he still approached 20 DK points in the past game while shooting 1-for11, in part because he leads the Pistons with a 33.2% assist rate on the year.
5. The Pistons are 28th against rebounders
Coach Nick Nurse will not be on the sidelines today, so perhaps the Raptors don’t run their players for mass minutes, but I doubt that. I want the player who starts between Precious Achiuwa or Jakob Poeltl, as Poeltl came off the bench in his first game and Achuiwa played over 30 minutes. Detroit is 29th in points per game allowed in the paint and 22nd in rebounds allowed, setting up the big men for success here. I’m hard-pressed to believe the Raptors made a move for Poeltl to bring him off the bench, so I think he jumps into the starting lineup sooner or later.
