Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Out of the eight games today, only one has a spread over seven points, so we should get plenty of strong environments today.
The Five Stats are going to focus on the six-game slate that’s functioning as the main slate. The other two games are covered in the Game-By-Game Breakdown.
1. Donovan Mitchell is scoring 1.27 points per minute without Jarrett Allen
I haven’t played Donovan Mitchell a lot after Darius Garland came back from his injury, but the $8,500 salary is very appealing. Mitchell not only has a 32.7% usage rate to go with his points per minute, but he’s also third in points per game as the pick-and-roll ball-handler. That’s a great match against the Knicks since they allow the 10th-most points per game and generally can’t guard any player like Mitchell.
2. Anthony Davis leads the league in points in the paint
It’s not a good matchup for the Lakers big man since the Wizards are top 10 in points allowed in the paint this year. They are 29th against rim-protectors and 16th against scorers, while Anthony Davis is scoring 1.56 points per minute. He’s also playing massive minutes, logging 40 in his last game, and this game should be a close one with a 3-point spread. There is no reason he should be under $11,000 at this point.
3. Jayson Tatum is in the top five in points scored off screens
That’s a nice stat to know since the Brooklyn Nets are allowing the most points per possession in that play type. Jayson Tatum has been outstanding this season with 1.41 points per minute scored, and his usage rate is over 32%. In addition, the Nets are still just 13th in defensive rating despite being excellent lately. Tatum feels like he’s expensive, but given the game environment and what he’s putting on the court, he should probably be over $11,000 as well.
4. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 25.8 points per game
This is probably my favorite play of the night since the Bulls are taking on the Sacramento Kings. It’s the highest total of the night and both teams are inside the top 10 in pace so far, not to mention DeMar DeRozan is taking 18 field-goal attempts per game. The Kings are 24th against crafty finishers, and he’s not far away from a 30% usage for Chicago. The salary doesn’t reflect the upside possible in the game environment. Pairing him with Kevin Huerter is a great mini-stack since Huerter plays over 31 minutes per game and is a sharpshooter from 3-point range.
5. Steven Adams is questionable for the Grizzlies
If Steven Adams winds up sitting, we could get some much-needed value from the Grizzlies side of the game. They take on the Pistons, and we could get a start out of Brandon Clarke, who leads the team in minutes with Adams off the floor. The usage rate won’t ever be high at just 17.6%, but the 0.97 points per minute would fit perfectly for $3,700. As of now, it’s going to be more of a balanced slate with little value, but that seldom happens in the NBA.
