Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are going to be a lot of options on Friday’s nine-game NBA DFS slate, including one team that is down to eight players for its game. That’s going to attract a lot of attention, and justifiably so but there will be a lot of other really strong spots to target so let’s talk about the Orlando Magic and get into other portions of the slate.
1. Magic players are serving one portion of their suspensions
Orlando had so many players suspended in the wake of the incident against the Pistons Tuesday that they will only have eight players in uniform Friday, and they had to stagger them so they had eight players to suit up –
I would suspect Bol Bol is going to be one of the most popular options since he’s just $4,800 on DraftKings and the quartet of Terrence Ross, Caleb Houstan, Kevon Harris and Admiral Schofield are $3,100 or under. There is no sample for the team being this shorthanded but odds are we can book Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz, Bol Bol and Ross for at least 35 minutes. This is chalk we likely want to eat to some extent. It doesn’t hurt that the Wizards are 20th in defensive rating so even in a blowout, five of these players have to play until the final horn.
2. Jalen Duren has scored over 36 DK points in each of the past two games
Duren has been helped along by the fact Marvin Bagley has been missing from the lineup, and he may return tonight. However, Chicago is 13th in rebounds allowed to the opposition and 12th in points per game allowed in the paint. Since he entered the starting lineup, Duren has trailed only Domantas Sabonis in rebounding chances per game and he’s brought down 12.9 of them per contest. Chicago is going to throw out a big man for almost the whole game and that means Duren should be on the floor for 30 minutes or more, and he’s still under $5,500.
3. Jrue Holiday is doubtful for the Bucks
This would mean Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to fly solo as far as the big three in Milwaukee and it’s a great spot for Giannis –
He’s scoring 1.74 points per minute with Khris Middleton and Holiday off the floor and he’s under $12,000, which likely shouldn’t have happened. The usage rate is absurd at 40.6% and the assist rate is 44.3% on top of it and I would imagine Giannis will be needed in cash games given the value we have available from Orlando.
4. Michael Porter is shooting 42.0% from a 3-point distance
The Denver Nuggets have listed Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown as questionable, although I fully assume Murray will be back since sitting in the last game was injury management. Even if everyone plays, Porter has been logging some good minutes for the Nuggets since coming back from an injury, playing at least 30 minutes in the last three games. Aside from one poor shooting night, he’s mostly picked up where he left off and has hit 11 of his last 17 3-point attempts. He’s scoring the fourth-most points per game as a spot-up shooter and has a 67.4% effective field goal rate while the Heat allow the second-most points per game and the most attempts per game. Lastly, they allow the second-highest frequency from beyond the arc and that makes this a prime spot for Porter to score a ton of points.
5. Domantas Sabonis played 38 minutes in the last game
That’s a big deal since he’s playing with a fractured thumb and he played well on top of that. Sabonis has helped spearhead the Kings this season as they make a run to the playoffs and he’s scoring 1.35 points per minute, including 8.4 points per game in the paint per game. Utah is dead last in points per game allowed in the paint and they have gotten hammered by centers all season. Sabonis adds in leading the league in rebounding chances per night and Sabonis is one of my favorite plays of the night in the late-night hammer.
