NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The NBA is not data-driven in the same way that sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis. Here are five stats I want to build around in DFS for Wednesday.
1. 1.09
1.09 is the stack rating for Wednesday’s GSW/IND game in our Game Environments Tool. Both of these teams play fast and turn the ball over at a high rate. It’s an even better matchup for the Warriors since the Pacers are terrible defensively, as well.
It will be interesting to see rostership for this game because the 237 total will attract a lot of people, but the individual prices are no bargain, especially for the Warriors.
2. 26%
After finishing third on the team in usage a year ago, Bam Adebayo is pacing the heat in usage rate so far this season, at 26.0%. The advanced DvP matchup is as good as it gets for him tonight, as the Thunder are 29th against skilled centers and 28th against rebounders. Look for Bam to continue his aggression and success.
3. 36.4
OG Anunoby and his 36.4 minutes per game are out for Toronto in a solid matchup with the Kings. So far this season, here’s how the fantasy points per minute change for the key Raptors with OG on/off the floor (powered by our Splits Tool):
- Pascal Siakam: 1.40 with OG, 1.41 without
- Fred VanVleet: 0.98, 0.91
- Gary Trent: 0.82, 0.85
- Scottie Barnes: 0.97, 1.10
This isn’t the whole story, of course, as those vacated minutes mean multiple Raptors are sure to play more than usual, but I’m hopeful that Scottie Barnes will be overlooked.
4. 35
Myles Turner played 35 minutes in Indiana’s last game, his fourth consecutive game at or above the 30-minute mark. Turner has spent a lot of the year in the mid to upper 20s (frustratingly), resulting in an average of just 29.2 minutes per game. For a player who produces 1.23 FPPM, a sustained minutes increase would be enormous for his nightly fantasy production.
This is a tough matchup for him (the Warriors are first against rim protectors and fifth against skilled centers), but the pace will help him out.
5. 123.2
Charlotte’s defense has taken a nosedive over the last seven games. Their season-long defensive rating remains at a respectable 111.5, but it’s an absurdly high 123.2 over their last seven. The Pistons’ rotation is a headache and a half right now, but they will consequently all be contrarian despite real upside.
