Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It doesn’t get a lot better for an NBA DFS slate than Christmas, because the teams are very motivated to show out and we have a lot of time to react to how the slate unfolds. That can be very important throughout the day and the FTN Discord is sure to be hopping even though it’s a holiday. Let’s talk about who we want to chase in the Five Stats for the Christmas slate.
1. James Harden is shooting 41.2% from a 3-point distance in the past five games
The 76ers are in Madison Square Garden in the first game of the day, and while the Knicks do allow the third-lowest field goal rate from deep, they also are in the top five in frequency allowed. Harden has started to shoot a little bit better, up to 36.4% on the season through 17 games. He’s not going to rack up 21 assists as he did in the last game but he does lead the team with a 46.5% assist rate when teammate Tyrese Maxey is off the floor. Harden also scores 1.28 points per minute and is a triple-double threat that should be at least $10,000 on DK.
2. Luka Doncic is scoring 9.2 points per game in isolation
The spread between the Mavericks and the Lakers is a mild concern here, but if Doncic gets his full allotment of minutes, he’s in one of the best spots on the slate. Without Anthony Davis, the Lakers have posted a defensive rating of over 122.0 — for context, the Spurs are dead last at 118.3. The last three games have seen the opponent score 117, 134 and 130 points, so Doncic should have a field day. The lakers are also tied for the third-highest points per possession allowed when they face isolation and Luka is leading the NBA in scoring in that play type. He’s coming off a 50-point effort Friday night, so we just saw he has one of the highest ceilings on this star-laden slate.
3. Robert Williams will play his fourth game of the year
Williams missed Friday but it was an illness, so he should be ready for this game when the Celtics host the Bucks. He’s only played three games coming back from a knee injury but hit 22 minutes last time out, so 24 are in play and the salary is never going to be this cheap again. He’s scoring 1.12 points per minute and 30 DK points are within reach if he does tick up to 24 minutes. The Bucks are 13th against rebounders on the season and even though Milwaukee is sixth in points allowed in the paint, Williams doesn’t need to score a ton of real points between rebounds and blocks. The Bucks are also 11th in rebounds allowed per game so if we’re pressing for value, punting center could make some sense.
4. Ja Morant has a 35.4% usage rate this year
Revenge narratives can be a little overrated in my eyes, but the Grizzlies and Warriors have a healthy dislike of each other from last year’s playoffs. Golden State had the last laugh on their way to a ring but there was plenty of trash talk and Morant has already been on ESPN talking about how big this game is.
There is nothing Morant wants more than to embarrass this team on their floor, and he’s sporting 1.50 points per minute along with his usage rate. Morant is driving to the hoop 21.6 times per game and scoring 14.3 points from that play. Golden State is down to 18th against primary ball handlers and Morant has had this date circled since the schedule came out.
5. Michael Porter played 27 minutes in his last game
It was his first game in a month, so I was surprised to see him play so much. That helps in this game between the Suns and Nuggets because he should get to right about 30 minutes and he’s under $6,000 on DK. The Suns are 15th against shooters this year and Porter is scoring exactly 1.00 points per minute on the season while shooting 42.2% from a 3-point distance. He’s the perfect way to get some exposure to a fully healthy Nuggets squad. It also doesn’t hurt that the Suns allow the highest points per possession to spot-up shooters and Porter is fifth in scoring in that play type.
