Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying stands to make and angles to take in your GPP lineups.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate, whether they be about an individual player or an overall team trend of note. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.
With both Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma off the floor this season, Deni Avdija has posted a 20.7% usage rate and 20.0% assist rate
This also accounts for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Spencer Dinwiddie and Montrezl Harrell (the latter two who are no longer with the team) off the floor. With such slim pickings for Wizards players with relevant upside, Avdija immediately stands out as a strong mid-range option. His usage rate doesn’t jump off of the page, but coupling it with his 20.0% assist rate and 12.9% rebounding rate showcases his all-around upside. He should be primed for at least 32 minutes, whether he starts or not, and given his 1.01 DraftKings points per game rate, he grades out as an exceptional midrange value Friday.
Over the last five games, Jalen Green (10.6) and Kevin Porter (10.0) have attempted the second and third-most above-the-break threes, respectively, per game in the entire NBA
Both players have seen a massive uptick in shot volume with the Rockets mailing their season in and both have opted to fire away from deep, particularly above the break. Green has shot an exceptional 45.3% on these attempts and Porter has been a rather mediocre 34.0%, but both could run into issues Friday. Over this same span, only four teams have allowed a lower field-goal percentage on above-the-break threes than the Raptors (32.5%) and only three teams have allowed fewer attempts from this zone than the Raptors (23.4). While the volume certainly isn’t going anywhere, the efficiency could regress, especially if Fred VanVleet, an exceptional individual defender, suits up for Toronto. Both Green and Porter are priced up and given their inherent volatility (that we have not seen as frequently lately), this is a matchup where I am most comfortable avoiding them and will hope for a regression game, especially if they become popular throughout the day.
The Cleveland Cavaliers improve in, quite literally, every notable statistical category when Evan Mobley is active compared to when he is inactive.
The laundry list of metrics I am referring to includes: offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating, plus/minus, true shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, points per game, points allowed per game and pace. Every single one of these sees a notable improvement with Mobley on the court versus when he is inactive. With Mobley expected to make his return Friday against Brooklyn, we should see an improvement in the Cavs’ statistical production on both ends of the floor in a rather exploitable matchup. We can expect a bit of a jump in Darius Garland’s assist rate to mitigate a slight dip in volume, we can expect an increase in floor spacing and efficiency across the board and an additional knock to production around the rim for the Nets players. With this game carrying weight and serving as a potential play-in preview, the Cavs could run their starters heavier minutes, making Garland, Mobley (barring a hard limit on playing time), and Lauri Markannen viable pieces in tournaments, while providing a knock to players like Andre Drummond on the other side of this game.
In eight games without Julius Randle this season, Obi Toppin has averaged 105.8% more DraftKings points per game
His production more than doubles from a DFS perspective, as he’s averaged nearly 33 DraftKings points per game across this span compared to just under 16 per game with Randle active. Not only has Randle been ruled out for the rest of the season, but Mitchell Robinson has also been ruled out for the second consecutive game. This time, however, the Knicks get a very exploitable matchup, especially for their frontcourt. Toppin has averaged 15.75 points on 10.38 shots per game with Randle out this season, but more recently has posted games of 20, 20 and 19 points on 10, 16 and 13 shot attempts. He’s played at least 31 minutes in every game and most recently is coming off a 43-minute outing against the Nets. He should see similar time against the Wizards given how depleted this frontcourt is, making him a great target in both the DFS and betting markets.
In two games against Charlotte this season, Nikola Vucevic has averaged 24.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.5 blocks per game
From a real basketball standpoint, Vucevic has been rather disappointing in terms of his impact on winning since coming to Chicago. That’s certainly not to discount his DFS appeal in an exploitable matchup, however. Vucevic has feasted on this undersized frontcourt for the Hornets this season, as he matches up well against both small-ball lineups as well as more traditional centers, making it hard to run him off the floor for a team like the Hornets. Priced under $8,000 Friday, he makes for one of the best mid-range plays on the entire slate, as the Bulls still have skin in the game in terms of their seeding.
