Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
More and more NBA teams are starting to lock into the playoffs — the Eastern Conference has seen its 10 teams set, though seeding is still up for grabs. Things are a little different in the West with 12 teams still mathematically alive for a spot. Wednesday, we have games with a closer spread. Of the eight games on Wednesday’s schedule, only two are into double-digits, so let’s start picking our players for DFS.
1. Immanuel Quickley scores 1.09 points per minute without Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson
Those two Knicks will not be in action Wednesday when New York faces the Pacers and the FTN Advanced DvP Tool tells us that we want to play the primary ball handler against them this year –
The usage for Quickley is up to 27.1% in this scenario with a 25.3% assist rate. He should take most of the pick-and-roll ball handler role from Brunson, who has scored 9.6 points per game with a 43.3% frequency. Indiana is allowing a 44.2% field goal rate and the sky is the limit for Quickley in this matchup.
2. The Celtics should be short-handed when they face the Raptors
Boston sat out Jaylen Brown Tuesday, but he is in line to play, while Jayson Tatum has been listed as questionable. In addition, Al Horford has already been ruled out and that’s going to leave Derrick White with a 24.8% usage rate and 1.07 points per minute. In a vacuum, I’d rather play Malcolm Brogdon since he’s at a 28.6% usage rate and 1.17 points per minute but he also played 28 minutes Tuesday. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Brogdon only played for 22-24 minutes or so, meaning White could be in line for over 30 minutes, and is a reasonable way to get a piece of Boston.
3. Trae Young is still scoring over 1.30 points per minute
It has been a struggle for Young and his fantasy results lately, with three of his past five games under 35.0 DK points. However, that has allowed his DK salary to fall under $9,000 and he’s also under $10,000 on FD. That’s just too cheap for a player of his caliber and Atlanta has to win this game. They are tied for the eighth seed in the East but can fall to 10th and the matchup is a layup not only for the Hawks as a whole but for Young as well –
4. Luka Doncic could be playing his last game of the season
The rumors are swirling that Dallas could shut down Luka and Kyrie Irving to protect their upcoming draft pick from the Knicks. Let’s face it, Dallas isn’t beating anyone from the play-in tournament so it makes some sense for the franchise. However, both Luka and Irving are listed as probable and I’ll take that as they’ll play their full minutes. Dallas is a six-point favorite against the superior Kings, which makes me think they’re sitting someone. That should clear the way for Luka even more as Sacramento is 25th in defensive rating and Doncic is still scoring the most points per game in isolation.
5. The Lakers are 21st in points per game allowed in the paint
That has gotten slightly worse across the past three games at 54.7 points per game allowed, which sets up quite nicely for Ivica Zubac of the Clippers. This game is wildly important for both teams as they are currently tied at 41-38 and the winner will be the sixth seed in the West with just four days left in the season. I do think Anthony Davis and LeBron James wind up playing even though they are listed as questionable and if Davis plays, Zubac is going to play plenty of minutes. Zubac has scored 1.02 points per minute and the salary is very affordable on both sites.
