NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
We have a total of 13 games of NBA goodness on Sunday, but it’s likely to be a challenging day. Of the 13 games, a whopping six of them have a spread that opened at 9.5 points or higher.
Some of those games involve teams that are fighting for their lives for the playoffs, so maybe they still play most of their minutes. It’s a lot to navigate so let’s get the ball rolling.
1. Utah is tied for the eighth-most points per possession allowed to spot-up shooters (Early)
When you’re just looking at raw points allowed, Utah is not that high with just 23.4 points per game allowed. That’s the second-fewest in the game, but they also just don’t face it that much at the third-lowest frequency. Since Mikal Bridges has been in Brooklyn, he leads the league in spot-up points per game and has been the main triggerman in the offense. The usage rate is spiked at 29.3%, while Bridges is on a tear over the past five games. He’s scoring 34.4 real points per contest and is still very affordable, something to get on board with for the early slate.
2. Keegan Murray is shooting 43.5% from beyond the arc in the last six games (Main)
If that doesn’t sway you, he has the rookie record for 3-point shots made in a season and is at 40.9% for the year. Keegan Murray has averaged over 30 minutes per night over the last six contests as well, while the Spurs allow the highest field goal rate in basketball from a 3-point distance. This game shouldn’t be close, but either way, Murray should be safe-ish for his time on the court and you can attack the San Antonio defense (dead last in defensive rating) for a cheaper price than De’Aaron Fox or Domantas Sabonis.
3. Kevin Durant is only $8,900 on DK (Main)
Even on FD, he’s only $9,400 and I’ll go right back to the well. He didn’t fully pay off against the Nuggets, but Kevin Durant played 33 minutes so I have no fears about any restrictions. What was odd to see was he only took 15 shots but still scored 30 real points, and the Thunder are second in pace, a huge bump for the Suns at 20th. It’s only 160 minutes, but Durant has scored 1.32 points per minute in Phoenix and is sporting a 27.3% usage rate. With the Thunder ranking just 22nd against crafty finishers, this is too tempting of a spot for Durant to ignore.
4. The Nuggets are 13th against bench players (Main)
One of the more competitive games of the night should come from the late-night hammer when the Golden State Warriors travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets. We’ve been targeting Jordan Poole as of late, and I’m not ready to stop yet, as he’s scored 27, 21, 27 and 33 real points in the past four games. It couldn’t have come at a better time of the year for the Warriors, and Poole’s rotation will allow him to get minutes on the floor against the second unit of the Nuggets. That’s good news for Poole, and he’s up to 1.06 points per minute with a 30.1% usage rate.
5. Golden State is tied for the eighth-most points allowed in the post-up (Main)
The spread in the Nuggets and Warriors game has been moving to the Nuggets, so I believe we may get Nikola Jokic back in the lineup on Sunday. If not, it’s easy to play Jamal Murray in his stead, but Jokic is leading the league in points scored per game in the post-up, not to mention he has some paths to success in the FTN Advanced DvP Tool –
It’s hard to see how the Warriors can defend Jokic, even with Kevon Looney and Draymond Green on the other side. Jokic is scoring almost 1.70 points per minute and should be about as fresh as a player gets this time of the year, as he’s missed the last two games.
