Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The NBA Play-In tournament continues Wednesday with two Eastern Conference matchups. Both the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks will be without key pieces of their rotation, while Joel Embiid looks to remain one of the most dominant players in basketball.
1. Tyler Herro led the Heat with a 27% usage rate with Terry Rozier off the floor this season
That rate dates back to Rozier’s first game with Miami Jan. 24. Rozier, who is out for this one, missed Miami’s final four regular season games. During that stretch, Herro led the Heat in touches per game, averaging nearly 74 per game. He is also averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute with Rozier off the floor and while playoff Jimmy Butler is a real thing, Herro should be plenty involved with Rozier sidelined.
2. Joel Embiid is sporting a 40% usage rate since making his return
It is both shocking and not surprising at all to see his usage rate so high in the five games since making his return. Embiid also averaged over 1.70 fantasy points per minute during that span and now with playoff scenarios in full effect, he should play closer to 40 minutes, compared to the 31 minutes per game he played to end the season.
3. Clint Capela has double-digit rebounds in 16 of his last 19 games
With Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu banged up to end the season, Capela has played a much larger role for the Hawks. Both Johnson and Okongwu will continue to miss time, which means Capela will once again be called upon to play a lot more minutes than usual. With both Johnson and Okongwu off the floor this season, Capela is averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute, while his usage rate (though still nothing to write home about) does climb by 1.6%. Over his final 15 games, Capela converted nearly 66% of his rebounding chances and now gets a great matchup with a Bulls team that is coughing up the second-most points per possession (1.26) and fourth-most points per game (8.4) to the roll man out of the pick and roll.
4. The Heat are coughing up the second-most spot-up points per game (33.2)
This could bode well for Tobias Harris, who scored 27 points on 10-of-18 shooting in a game against Miami earlier in the season. Harris played over 40 minutes that game and, yes, both Embiid and Tyrese Maxey also played. Harris is undoubtedly not as good of a fantasy player when both Embiid and Maxey are healthy, but his price has also come all the way down to just $6,200 on DraftKings.
5. Nikola Vucevic led the NBA in points per game as the roll man (7.6)
This is a great spot for Vucevic, who also posted a 38.1% frequency rate as the roll man out of the pick and roll. Atlanta’s defense has been awful all year long, regardless of who has been in the lineup. During the regular season, the Hawks surrendered the third-highest field goal percentage to the roll man (57.8%), as well as the eighth-most points per possession off the play type (1.19). Opponents also shot 65.3% at the rim against the Hawks, the fourth-worst rate in the league.
