2025 NBA Playoffs: Timberwolves vs. Warriors Preview and Analysis

(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff coverage!)

The final second-round matchup in the Western Conference is set: The No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves will host the No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors in one of the most unconventional series of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. It marks the first time since 2023 that two teams seeded 5 or lower will meet in Round 2. That year, it was the Knicks (5) vs. Heat (8) in the East. 

Minnesota arrives with momentum after dismantling the Lakers in five games. Despite being the lower seed, the Timberwolves owned the Lakers and looked anything but underdogs in Round 1. Anthony Edwards was the engine, averaging 26.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game. But the Wolves’ success went well beyond Ant. Julius Randle thrived as a secondary scorer with an efficient 22.6 PPG, Jaden McDaniels hit big shots all series (17.4 PPG on 37.5% from three), and Rudy Gobert delivered a dominant Game 5 performance with 27 points and 24 rebounds. Add in strong bench minutes from Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid, and this Minnesota team looks deep, confident, and dangerous.

The Warriors took a rockier path. After jumping out to a 3-1 lead against Houston, Golden State faltered, losing Games 5 and 6 and limping into a Game 7 on the road. Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler had strong early moments, but the Warriors looked banged up and out of sync as the series wore on. It took a Game 7 explosion from Buddy Hield to keep their season alive. Now they face a tougher challenge: S Timberwolves team that’s clicking on both ends and believes it belongs.

FTN’s simulation model actually gives a slight edge to the Warriors, diverging from the betting market, which favors the Timberwolves. If Anthony Edwards continues his rise and dominates the series the way he did against the Lakers, Minnesota has a clear path to the Western Conference Finals. But if Curry and Butler control the tempo and stay healthy, Golden State has the firepower and experience to pull off the upset, and this could end up being the most competitive series of the second round.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors Series Odds

Before diving into the matchup breakdown, let’s take a look at the current series odds for Timberwolves vs. Warriors at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The betting market gives Minnesota the edge at -175, making them the favorite despite this being the most evenly matched series of the second round on paper.

However, after simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives Golden State a slight edge. The Warriors came out on top in 51% of simulations, even with road games in four of the seven possible matchups. While home-court advantage keeps this series close to a coin flip, the model views the Warriors as the better overall team. Given that, and the +150 price tag, the value may lie with Golden State.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors: Regular Season Results

The Timberwolves and Warriors met four times during the regular season, with Golden State winning three of those matchups. However, the last meeting came all the way back on Jan. 15, and both teams have changed significantly since then.

Key Trends from the Season Series:

• Point Differential: Despite the Warriors taking the series 3-1, the total point differential across all four games was just +2 in Golden State’s favor.
• Curry is the Engine: In all three of the Warriors’ wins, Stephen Curry scored at least 30 points.

Major Takeaways:

The regular season results don’t tell us much. A lot has changed since these teams last faced off. Most notably, Jimmy Butler had not yet joined the Warriors. His presence completely changes the dynamic for Golden State, and Minnesota has yet to see this version of the team.

On the other side, the Timberwolves have also transformed. Early in the season, they were still adjusting to life with Karl-Anthony Towns back in the fold. After falling to 21-19 following that Jan. 15 loss to Golden State, Minnesota has gone 32-15 (including playoffs), emerging as one of the league’s most dangerous teams.

With both teams evolving over the last few months, there’s real uncertainty heading into this matchup. One of the biggest tactical questions: who guards Jimmy Butler? Earlier in the year, the obvious move for Minnesota would’ve been to stick McDaniels, and his 7-foot wingspan, on Curry. But Butler’s arrival complicates things. Edwards is capable of defending Curry, but that assignment could sap his energy on offense. Chris Finch and the Timberwolves’ coaching staff will have tough choices to make on the defensive end.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

This series could be slower-paced than most, especially compared to other West matchups. Minnesota prefers to grind things down, while Golden State plays with a bit more tempo — but still below the league’s fastest. Expect deliberate half-court possessions, especially in close games.

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Minnesota. Both teams are top 10 in net rating, but the Wolves have a more complete profile, with a top-10 offense and a top-6 defense. Golden State is solid on both ends but doesn’t stand out the same way.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Minnesota. The Wolves are simply a more efficient shooting team across the board, ranking higher in eFG%, TS% and from three. Golden State gets to the line slightly more often, but overall Minnesota has the shooting edge.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Warriors. Golden State has a slight advantage on the glass, particularly on the offensive boards, and they take slightly better care of the ball. These extra possessions could be crucial in a tightly contested series.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors: Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward in this series.

Stephen Curry vs. Anthony Edwards

This matchup pits the seasoned veteran against the rising star. Stephen Curry, a four-time NBA champion and two-time MVP, continues to be the engine of the Warriors’ offense. Anthony Edwards, on the other hand, has emerged as the face of the Timberwolves, leading them with his dynamic scoring and athleticism.

Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors

• Games Played: 70
• Stats: 24.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.0 APG
• Shooting Splits: 44.8% FG, 39.7% 3PT, 93.3% FT
• Advanced: 24.5 PER, 5.8 Win Shares

Curry’s experience and shooting prowess make him a constant threat. His ability to stretch defenses and create space is unparalleled. However, at 37, maintaining peak performance throughout a grueling series is a challenge.

Anthony Edwards – Minnesota Timberwolves

• Games Played: 60
• Stats: 27.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.6 APG
• Shooting Splits: 43.9% FG, 40.5% 3PT, 84.2% FT
• Advanced: 25.3 PER, 6.2 Win Shares

Edwards has taken a significant leap this season, showcasing his ability to take over games. His athleticism and confidence make him a challenging cover for any defender.

Key to the Matchup: If Edwards can continue his scoring efficiency and handle the pressure of the playoffs, he could tilt the series in Minnesota’s favor. Conversely, if Curry finds his rhythm and dictates the game’s pace, the Warriors could leverage their experience to advance.

Draymond Green vs. Julius Randle

This frontcourt battle features two players known for their physicality and versatility. Draymond Green, the defensive anchor for the Warriors, brings intensity and leadership. Julius Randle provides the Timberwolves with scoring and rebounding from the power forward position.

Draymond Green – Golden State Warriors

• Games Played: 68
  Stats: 9.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.6 APG
• Shooting Splits: 42.4% FG, 32.5% 3PT, 68.7% FT
• Advanced: 15.8 PER, 4.5 Win Shares

Green’s defensive IQ and ability to guard multiple positions make him invaluable. His leadership and playoff experience are assets for the Warriors.

Julius Randle – Minnesota Timberwolves

• Games Played: 50
• Stats: 18.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 4.4 APG
• Shooting Splits: 47.3% FG, 31.9% 3PT, 81.7% FT
• Advanced: 18.4 PER, 5.1 Win Shares

Randle’s strength and scoring ability in the post and mid-range add a different dimension to Minnesota’s offense. His performance can alleviate pressure from Edwards.

Key to the Matchup: If Green can disrupt Randle’s rhythm and limit his scoring opportunities, the Warriors’ defense will benefit. Randle has struggled vs. Draymond in the past, as Randle won’t be able to take advantage of his strength in this matchup. However, if Randle asserts himself offensively and controls the boards, it could give the Timberwolves a significant advantage. 

Series Prediction: Timberwolves vs. Warriors

Our model at FTN does not agree with the sportsbooks. While the market thinks the Timberwolves will win the series, our simulations project a toss-up that anyone can win. 

Marshall’s Pick: Timberwolves in 7

This series is going to be a war. Anthony Edwards has built a playoff reputation by knocking off some of the biggest names in basketball. Last year, he outdueled Kevin Durant and Nikola Jokić. This postseason, he already dispatched LeBron James and Luka Dončić in Round 1. Now, he sets his sights on another all-time great: Stephen Curry.

Minnesota’s depth gives them a critical edge. They’re comfortable playing eight or nine guys in high-leverage spots, with the flexibility to adapt. If Julius Randle struggles, they can turn to Naz Reid. If Mike Conley isn’t sharp, Donte DiVincenzo can soak up big minutes without skipping a beat. The Timberwolves have answers that the Warriors cannot match. 

Golden State will make this a fight. Curry and Jimmy Butler are still capable of swinging any game, and they’ve proven they can rise in the biggest moments. But the Warriors are more top-heavy, and their bench has real limitations. Over the course of a long, physical series, I trust Minnesota’s youth, depth, and defensive versatility to carry them across the finish line.

Prediction: Timberwolves in 7

Best Bets for Timberwolves vs. Warriors

I don’t want to be on the series winner. I like the Timberwolves, but not enough to bet them at -175. But there are other angles we can attack this series. 

Best Bet 1: Timberwolves -6.5 Game 1 Spread

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Timberwolves will be well-rested heading into this series. Unlike the Warriors, who will be playing on one night of rest, the Timberwolves will have almost a full week to rest heading into the series. The Timberwolves had to be licking their chops as the Rockets extended their series with the Warriors to 7 games, as it meant only one team will be well-rested in their Round 2 series. The Timberwolves should use that that rest to their advantage as they enjoy a nice Game 1 victory at home. 

Best Bet 2: Jimmy Butler Series Leader in Points

(+1600, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jimmy Butler was awesome in the play-in against Memphis, but went on to have a quiet series against the Rockets. The injury in Game 2 likely slowed him down, but he’s now had a couple of weeks to recover. The Memphis series showed that Jimmy is still capable of dropping 30-plus on any given night. If the Timberwolves decide to focus mostly on stopping Curry, Butler could have a massive series. 

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Final Thoughts on Timberwolves vs. Warriors

This series is a rare second-round matchup between two lower seeds, but don’t mistake that for mediocrity. Both teams are dangerous, battle-tested, and capable of making a deep run. The Timberwolves have youth, depth, and momentum on their side, along with home-court advantage. Anthony Edwards looks like a superstar in the making, and Minnesota’s supporting cast is playing with confidence and cohesion.

The Warriors, meanwhile, are a resilient veteran group led by two playoff killers in Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. They’ve been through every type of series and know how to win on the road. But they’ll need to be near-perfect, especially in the non-Curry minutes, to overcome Minnesota’s depth and defensive pressure.

Expect tight games, big moments and plenty of adjustments. If Minnesota continues to grow up in front of our eyes, this could be the year they break through. But Golden State won’t go quietly, and if Curry catches fire, all bets are off.