2025 NBA Playoffs Round 2 Update: FTN’s Data-Driven Bracket, Picks & Betting Predictions

(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff coverage!)

Round 1 of the 2025 NBA Playoffs delivered on excitement. Now the field is down to eight.

While top seeds like Oklahoma City and Boston advanced as expected, there were surprises too: The Warriors escaped a 3-1 scare against Houston, Minnesota upset the Lakers in five and the Nuggets found a way to advance past the Clippers. With four teams left in each conference, FTN’s NBA simulation model has been re-run for all remaining scenarios, and the results may surprise you.

Using a data-driven approach that simulates the rest of the postseason 10,000 times, we now have a clear picture of each team’s true odds to advance, not just what the betting market thinks. Below, we break down the most important takeaways from our updated model, highlight the best values on the board, and preview how the rest of the playoffs may unfold.

FTN’s Updated 2025 NBA Playoff Bracket: Simulated 10,000 Times

The table below represents the remaining 8-team bracket, simulated 10,000 times by FTN’s proprietary NBA model. It accounts for everything from player performance and team health to opponent strength and home-court advantage. Every number you see reflects how often that team advanced to each round across those simulations.

FTN’s 2025 NBA Playoff Probabilities By Round

Below are each team’s odds to make each round, according to FTN’s simulation model. Also included are each team’s odds to win the finals. 

Key Takeaways from FTN’s Updated Round 2 Simulations

OKC Now the Clear Title Favorite, and It’s Not Close

The Thunder are up to 59.3% to win the NBA title in our simulations, better than a coin flip to win it all. Their path isn’t easy (Denver this round, then potentially Golden State or Minnesota), but the model sees OKC as the most well-rounded and consistent team remaining. With the field thinning and many of the top contenders already eliminated, OKC’s edge has widened significantly.

The Model Does Not Trust Minnesota

Right now, you can bet the Timberwolves to win the title at +1300, the fourth-shortest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. But FTN’s simulations see it differently, as they win the title less than 1% of the time. The Timberwolves have a brutal path to the final, having to beat the Warriors and then likely the Thunder just to make it. But the Timberwolves have been underestimated before, and they’ve typically come out on top. 

The Cavaliers Remain Undervalued

Cleveland has made the Eastern Conference Finals in 77.3% of our simulations and the NBA Finals in 48.6%, which is more than Boston. The betting market still favors the Celtics, but our model sees the Cavs as the better team overall, likely due to their elite defense and the advantage of home-court. They’re the top value bet in the East if you’re fading Boston.

Golden State Has a Real Path, But Still Faces Long Odds

The Warriors are up to 51.6% to reach the Western Conference Finals, thanks to a narrow projected edge over the Timberwolves. But the model is still cautious about their championship equity, giving them just a 2.4% chance to win it all. The issue? OKC looms in the next round, and the Warriors lack the depth and margin for error of some other contenders.

The Market Underrates the Knicks

New York reaches the Finals in 10.7% of our simulations, similar to Golden State and better than Indiana or Minnesota, but their futures odds remain long. The market, and the entire world, thinks the Knicks have no chance against Boston. But if you’re hunting for a longshot in the East with a path, the Knicks may be worth a flier.

Best Bets for Round 2 and Beyond

Bet 1: Cavaliers to Win the NBA Championship

(+650, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Cleveland enters Round 2 with a 17.8% chance to win it all in FTN’s model, the second highest of any team, behind only the Thunder. That implies fair odds closer to +461, making the +650 at DraftKings a strong value. The Cavaliers have a top-tier defense, are healthy, and possess arguably the clearest path to the Finals in the East. If they get through the Boston/New York half of the bracket, they’ll likely be favored in the championship round, depending on who emerges from the West.

This is still a wide-open playoff field, but our model consistently sees Cleveland as one of the two best teams left standing.

Bet 2: Knicks to Make the NBA Finals

(+1600, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Knicks have just a 10.7% chance to make the Finals according to our model, but that still implies fair odds around +835, much shorter than the +1600 price currently offered. They’re underdogs against Boston, but New York matches up well and has the depth to give the Celtics trouble in a long series. If they can pull off the upset, their potential Conference Finals opponent (Cleveland or Indiana) would be a winnable series.

This is a pure value play, but the price is too long for a team that made it this far and still ranks sixth in title equity in our sims.

Bet 3: Thunder to Advance Further Than the Celtics

(-140, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is a creative way to back the model’s two most important takeaways: 1) the Thunder are the best team left, and 2) the Celtics’ path is tougher than it looks. OKC reaches the Conference Finals in 85.1% of simulations and the Finals in 77.5% — both higher than Boston’s 66.5% and 35.1%, respectively.

Whether it’s the second round or the Conference Finals, our model sees a higher likelihood that Boston gets tripped up before OKC does. At -140, there’s real value here.

Get All of FTN’s NBA Playoff Picks

These are just a few of the bets we like, but our team will be adding more plays every day throughout the playoffs, including series bets, player props, and game picks.

→ Check out FTN’s NBA Bet Tracker to see every pick from our betting team, updated in real-time.

Final Thoughts on the 2025 NBA Playoffs: Round 2

We’ve reached the stage of the playoffs where depth, coaching, and matchups matter more than ever, and FTN’s model reflects that. While OKC and Cleveland stand out as the current frontrunners, the road is far from guaranteed for anyone. The Warriors are still dangerous. Boston has the talent to win it all. And teams like Minnesota and Indiana bring enough variance to shake things up.

Expect more upsets, more breakout stars, and more tight finishes. We’ll be updating our projections after each round, but for now, the Thunder and Cavs are the teams to beat.

→ Follow all of our NBA Playoffs bets in FTN’s Bet Tracker here.

Good luck, enjoy the games, and we’ll see you in the Finals.