2025 NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Knicks Series Preview and Analysis

(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff coverage!)

The Boston Celtics face the New York Knicks in Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs, which will be the 16^th time they’ve faced each other in the postseason.

The Celtics are the second betting favorite to defend their championship. They haven’t played at the consistently high level we saw last season, but we’ve seen them hit their peak several times, and in big games. Defending champs often coast through the regular season and ramp up their level of play in the postseason. The Orlando Magic were a good test for Boston, which had to learn to adjust to a physical team and how to play well without important players in a few games. The Celtics still have arguably the best roster in the league and are poised to win several more games this season.

The New York Knicks made the biggest moves of the offseason to create a starting five as good as any in the NBA. Injuries and a lack of depth have held them back from being a great team. They’ve won a lot of games and closed out the Pistons in Detroit in a tough atmosphere, but this could be the end of the line for them. We’ll see how much magic Jalen Brunson has left in him and whether or not Karl-Anthony Towns can make the right rotations on defense.

It’s always exciting to see a historical matchup like this, although it might not be as competitive as we’d want. In this series preview, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze how they match up and use FTN’s model, which simulates every series 10,000 times, to project the most likely outcomes and best bets.

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks Series Odds

Before we dive into the matchup breakdown, here’s a look at the current series odds for Celtics vs. Knicks at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The second-seeded Celtics are the current betting favorites at -800 at DraftKings. 

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Celtics a 77.3% chance to win, compared to 22.7% for the Knicks. We agree with the market that the Celtics should be big favorites, but we’re not as bullish. Our model prices them at -341.

Based on those projections, we show some value on the Knicks. It’s a decent edge, but, ultimately, I expect the Celtics to win the series and won’t be backing the Knicks. Luckily, there are more markets for us to attack, which I’ll breakdown later in this preview.

Celtics vs. Knicks: Regular Season Matchup Results

The Celtics faced the Knicks four times this season, won all four matchups and went 3-0-1 against the spread.

Key Trends from the Season Series

• The Celtics Shot More Threes Than The Knicks: Boston averaged 16 more shot attempts from beyond the arc over those four games.
• The Games Were Played At A Slower Pace: The average pace for the four games was 92.3 possessions versus the roughly 97 possessions these teams averaged during the regular season.
• Boston Won The Possession Battle: The Celtics had more additional possessions in three of the four games and averaged three more possessions per game than the Knicks.

Major Takeaways

• The Knicks have to find a way to shoot more threes. The Celtics have a team full of good shooters and use the math of three points versus two points to their advantage. New York will have to close the gap from deep if it wants to win games in this series.
• Games often slow down in the postseason, but can it get any slower than it was during the regular season? Both were among the slowest teams in the league. I think we’ll see each team attempt to push pace when behind in games, but not for all 48 minutes.
• More possessions = better. It’s really that simple. The Knicks are the lesser of the two teams and they can’t afford to let the Celtics have more chances than them. Whether it be avoiding turnovers or playing bigger to attack the glass, New York has to find a way to get more shot attempts than Boston.

Celtics vs. Knicks: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

These are two of the very slowest teams in the NBA, and there’s little to no reason to expect them to change their methodical natures.

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Boston. The Celtics are the better team on both ends of the floor and significantly better on defense. It will be tough for the Knicks to slow down the second-best offense in the NBA.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Push. The shooting splits are very close in this matchup. The Celtics have slightly better make rates, but the Knicks have an advantage in attempted free throws.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Push. The Knicks are the better rebounding team, while the Celtics are better at avoiding turnovers. New York needs to use that rebounding advantage to create additional possessions.

Celtics vs. Knicks: Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward in this matchup. 

Jayson Tatum vs. Jalen Brunson

They may not spend much time guarding or attacking one another, but these are the two most important players on their respective teams. Tatum and Brunson are the players with the ball in their hands in big moments and the guys who are expected to take and make shots when absolutely needed. Each has a chance to be the best player in this series and add to their already impressive career resumes.

Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics

• Games Played: 72
• Stats: 26.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 6.0 APG
• Shooting Splits: 45.2% FG, 34.3% 3PT, 81.4% FT
• Advanced: 53.7% eFG, 21.7 PER, 9.5 Win Shares

Jayson Tatum has been one of the five best players in the NBA for a few seasons and should continue to be for years to come. He’s asked to do just about everything on the floor and can do it all at a high level. Whether it be running the offense as a point-forward, creating space with his shooting or breaking down defenders one-on-one, Tatum adds value to every phase of the offense. Defensively, he’s strong enough to guard centers and is athletic enough to guard ball-handlers on the perimeter. Tatum is one of the best, well-rounded players in the game today.

The key for Tatum: Taking over the game in key moments. With such talented teammates, Tatum can sometimes be passive. He needs to play aggressively at times to ensure the Knicks aren’t able to keep games close, let alone win.

Jalen Brunson – New York Knicks

• Games Played: 65
• Stats: 26.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 7.3 APG
• Shooting Splits: 48.8% FG, 38.3% 3PT, 82.1% FT
• Advanced: 55.1% eFG, 21.6 PER, 8.3 Win Shares

Jalen Brunson is far and away the best guard on New York’s roster. He is the best ball-handler and the best at creating space and chances for his teammates. Using FTN’s NBA Splits Tool, we see the offensive rating for the Knicks drops by three in games he doesn’t play and by more than seven when he’s off the court in games he does play. Brunson is the most important player to the success of the Celtics.

The key for Jalen Brunson: Staying healthy and saving his very best stuff for the end of games. The Knicks can’t win without Brunson and especially need him in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter.

Kristaps Porziņģis vs. Karl-Anthony Towns

No matter how the game of basketball changes, the biggest guys on the floor will always impact games. This series is no exception, and this matchup could define the series. One has been handled with kid gloves all season to stay healthy, and the other struggled against the very best teams all season. A lot will be determined by the minutes played by Kristaps Porziņģis and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Kristaps Porziņģis – Boston Celtics

• Games Played: 42
• Stats: 19.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.1 APG
• Shooting Splits: 48.3% FG, 41.2% 3PT, 80.9% FT
• Advanced: 57.2% eFG, 22.3 PER, 5.3 Win Shares

Porziņģis is the difference between the Boston Celtics being a very good team and one of the best teams in NBA history. On offense, his elite shooting drags rim protectors away from the basket, and his size gives Boston a good option late in the shot clock. On defense, Porziņģis is the team’s best rim protector and athletic enough to not get beat on the perimeter. He allows the Celtics to play a second big next to him or to play with as much shooting as possible without sacrificing rim protection.

The key for Porziņģis: Staying healthy. It’s just that simple. When he’s on the floor, the Celtics are arguably the best team in the league. He played just 42 games in the regular season and has struggled with injuries throughout his career. Boston’s coaching staff has done a good job keeping his minutes down because they know how important Porziņģis is to their success.

Karl-Anthony Towns – New York Knicks

• Games Played: 72
• Stats: 24.4 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 3.1 APG
• Shooting Splits: 52.6% FG, 42.0% 3PT, 82.9% FT
• Advanced: 58.4% eFG, 23.4 PER, 10.1 Win Shares

Towns’ first season in New York has been great for him and the Knicks on the offensive end of the court. Combined with Brunson, Towns is a key part of the engine that drives a Knicks offense that is one of the very best in the league. He’s struggled defensively, but we’ve seen him raise his level in big moments, and New York has learned how to scheme around him.

The key for Karl-Anthony Towns: Not being a negative on the defensive end of the floor. At times, Towns is arguably the worst defensive starting center in the NBA. He misses rotations and fails to protect the rim. At other times, he can be a good defender, even slowing down Nikola Jokić. Towns needs to make sure he plays his very best defense if the Knicks are going to make a deep playoff run.

Series Prediction: Celtics vs. Knicks

The sportsbooks agree with FTN and make the Celtics comfortable favorites to win this series. Boston winning in five or six games is the most likely scenario.

FTN Model Prediction: Celtics

According to FTN’s model, the Celtics are strong favorites to win this series and advance.

Noops’ Pick: Celtics in 5

I think Boston is going to dominate New York. For starters, the Knicks have a lot of miles on them. Tom Thibodeau puts a lot of miles on his players. Of the nine players who played the most minutes, three are Knicks. Brunson reinjured his ankle, and although he was able to play through it, he looked far less than 100%. If any of the starters for New York miss any time, the team is in big trouble. Even if everyone stays healthy, the Celtics are the much better team in almost every phase of the game. I think Brunson is better than any of Boston’s guards, but that’s the only position on the floor where I think New York might have an edge. The Knicks couldn’t beat them in the regular season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t beat them in the postseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a Celtics sweep, but I do think the Knicks steal one game.

Best Bets for Celtics vs. Knicks

I’m looking for ways to back the Celtics in this series. I don’t want to lay the series prices, but there are appealing options on the board for us.

Best Bet 1: Boston Celtics -2.5 Games 

(-145, DraftKings)

I considered playing the Celtics 4-0 at +210, but I think this is the better value. Although we’re drinking a little juice at -145, I price this closer to -180. Boston dominated this matchup all season and is built to beat New York on both ends of the floor. I don’t love that Jrue Holiday might miss time, because he’s an important defender against Brunson, but that is really the only thing that’s causing me any hesitation. The Celtics will be favorites in every game of the series, so there’s no reason to expect them to lose more than one game if they even lose any games.

Best Bet 2: Jayson Tatum Series Leader in Rebounds 

(+550, DraftKings)

Karl-Anthony Towns is a big favorite to lead the series in rebounds, and I think that’s a mistake. He averaged just 10 boards per game in Round 1 against a worse rebounding team. To make things worse for Towns, he’ll have to spend time on the perimeter guarding Kristaps Porziņģis. That keeps him away from the basket and away from rebounds. Jayson Tatum is an underrated rebounder and the best on his team. He takes on a bigger role cleaning the boards in the playoffs. Tatum has averaged 10.5 rebounds per game over the last three postseasons. I think there’s a much better than 15.4% chance Tatum has the most rebounds of any player in this series.

Final Thoughts on Celtics vs. Knicks

I know Boston struggled at times against the Orlando Magic, but the Magic were a tough matchup for the Celtics. The Magic have big wings, great defenders and Paolo Banchero. Orlando was able disrupt Boston’s offense in ways I don’t think New York can. If the Knicks are going to win this series, they’ll have to do it on the offensive end. That means getting into a shooting contest with the Celtics, and I don’t think the Knicks are ready for it. Looming over everything for New York is the possibility of losing one of its most important players to injury. Everything points to Boston winning this series and probably in quick fashion.