2025 NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers vs. Heat Series Preview and Analysis

The Cleveland Cavaliers face the Miami Heat in what might be the quickest series in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.  

The Cavaliers started the season 5-0, took hold of the No. 1 seed on Oct. 30 and held onto that spot for the rest of the season. Cleveland had a chance to have the best record in the league, but, like most teams comfortably atop their conference, it lost three of five games on a long road trip out West and then began resting its stars. I know that cold stretch has caused some to doubt the Cavaliers, but I continue to believe they should be favored to win the Eastern Conference and make the NBA Finals. I expect this round to be one of many played by them this postseason.

The Heat are far from the team that made the Eastern Conference Finals or better three times in four years. Jimmy Butler is gone, and there are several new faces on the roster. They still have Erik Spoelstra, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, who should be able to cobble together a decent defense and a decent offense. Unfortunately, it’s not enough to be a good team, let alone a great team. I’m sure Miami is happy to have made the NBA Playoffs, but they shouldn’t expect to be there for a long time.

The Cavaliers should win this series comfortably, but there are several angles for us to attack in the betting markets. In this series preview, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze how they match up and use FTN’s model, which simulates every series 10,000 times, to project the most likely outcomes and best bets.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat Series Odds

Before we dive into the matchup breakdown, here’s a look at the current series odds for Cavaliers vs. Heat at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers are big favorites priced at -1800 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The best-of-seven format gives the better team more time to create their edge over the underdog. It’s a deep number, but it might not actually be deep enough.

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Cavaliers a 96.2% chance to win, compared to 3.8% for the Heat. We agree with the market and would actually make Cleveland even bigger favorites.

Although we price the Cavaliers as bigger favorites than the books, it’s not a big enough edge for us to bet.

Cavaliers vs. Heat: Regular Season Matchup Results

The Cavaliers faced the Heat three times this season. Cleveland won twice, while Miami covered the spread twice.

Key Trends from the Season Series

• Win The Possession Battle, Win The Game: Whichever team had more additional possessions won the game. 
• The Heat Shot More Free Throws: Miami was able to get to the line more often than Cleveland in every game they played.
• The Cavaliers Shot Better From Two, The Heat Shot Better From Three: In each of the three games, Cleveland had a better FG% from inside the arc, and Miami had a better FG% from beyond the arc.

Major Takeaways

• The team that gets more offensive rebounds and has less turnovers will have a big edge. Games slow down in the postseason. That means less possessions overall, making extra chances even more valuable.
• Playoff games generally have fewer foul calls, so the Heat might not have this advantage and might not have a way to make up for it.
• Cleveland’s ability to score in the midrange and at the rim will be very important late in games. Miami might be able to keep games close if it shoots well from deep, but it will have to shoot a lot of threes against a defense that will likely be ready for that.

Cavaliers vs. Heat: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

The Heat are one of the slowest teams in the league. Can they slow down the Cavaliers, or will Cleveland get Miami to run? Pay attention to see which team is dictating pace throughout games in this series.

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Cleveland. The Heat are an average NBA team, while the Cavaliers are one of the very best NBA teams. Miami might be able to raise its level on defense and get an edge there, but it’s near impossible for the Heat to make up for how bad their offense is.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Cleveland, again. The Cavaliers are arguably the best in the league, and the Heat are average to below average. It’s possible for Miami to shoot better in a game or two, but Cleveland will generally have the edge when it comes to shooting efficiency.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Cleveland. The Cavaliers are average when it comes to rebounding, but the Heat can’t take advantage of that, as they are even worse. Neither team turns the ball over much. If either squad prioritizes attacking the glass for offensive rebounds, they might find a way to create an edge for themselves with those extra possessions.

Cavs vs. Heat Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward in this matchup. 

Donovan Mitchell vs. Tyler Herro

Donovan Mitchell is the most important player for Cleveland’s success. He’s been great for the team in big games this season, increasing his usage without hurting his efficiency, and we’ve seen him have big moments in the playoffs for the Cavaliers and the Utah Jazz. He should be the best player in this series. Tyler Herro is the best guard on Miami and will be dueling Mitchell at the end of close games. Perhaps Cleveland doesn’t keep games close at the end, but if the Heat can get to the fourth quarter down just a basket or two, Herro will have chances to make shots that could change the series if Mitchell can’t answer him.

Donovan Mitchell – Cleveland Cavaliers

• Games Played: 71
• Stats: 24.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.0 APG
• Shooting Splits: 44.3% FG, 36.8% 3PT, 82.3% FT
• Advanced: 53.1% eFG, 20.9 PER, 7.6 Win Shares

Donovan Mitchell spent the regular season saving his best stuff for big moments and the postseason. His usage was down to allow his teammates to grow their games and help the team. Now that the playoffs are here, I expect to see Mitchell be more aggressive, shoot the ball more often and put up big numbers. The Cavaliers will only go as far as Mitchell can take them, and I think he’s ready to carry them a long way.

The key for Mitchell – maintain control of Cleveland’s offense. Mitchell will dictate just about everything the Cavaliers do on the offensive end. He has to make sure he’s getting his teammates the ball enough without sacrificing the lead on the scoreboard.

Tyler Herro – Miami Heat

• Games Played: 77
• Stats: 23.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.5 APG
• Shooting Splits: 47.2% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 87.8% FT
• Advanced: 56.3% eFG, 19.7 PER, 7.4 Win Shares

Tyler Herro has had a nice season, putting up some good stats and even winning the three-point shooting contest. He’ll be the lead ballhandler for the Miami Heat and is capable of doing that job. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have much offensive talent around him, and Herro is not quite capable of carrying this team on his own on that end of the floor.

The key for Herro is to find a way to be great in big moments. If the Heat are going to have a chance to win even a few games in this series, they will have to find a way to make games ugly and keep them close. In those big moments, Herro will be called upon to create shots and score points when they are absolutely needed. 

Evan Mobley vs. Bam Adebayo

These are two of the very best defensive players in the league, and both have taken big steps forward with their offensive game this season. Even Mobley is a lead contender to be the Defensive Player of the Year this season, and Bam Adebayo has been among the top vote-getters for that award for years. Mobley’s passing, shooting and movement on offense have been much better this season, and it’s raised Cleveland’s level in a meaningful way. Adebayo has finally added three-point shooting to his repertoire, which gives the Heat move flexibility with their offense and lineups. Both will make key plays for their respective teams throughout this series. 

Evan Mobley – Cleveland Cavaliers

• Games Played: 67
• Stats: 18.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 3.2 APG
• Shooting Splits: 55.7% FG, 37.0% 3PT, 72.5% FT
• Advanced: 60.4% eFG, 22.3 PER, 9.0 Win Shares

Evan Mobley made significant improvements to his game this season and is on the border of being considered one of the best players in the league. He’s long, athletic and intelligent. He’s already proven how dominant he can be on defense. If he can continue to contribute on offense, he will be on the floor for as long as possible helping the Cavaliers win games.

The key for Mobley is to be a positive on offense. In past years, Mobley’s inability has made it hard to keep him on the court. This season has been different, but if he’s unable to keep that up, then Cleveland will be limited in their success.

Bam Adebayo – Miami Heat

• Games Played: 78
• Stats: 18.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 4.3 APG
• Shooting Splits: 48.5% FG, 35.7% 3PT, 76.5% FT
• Advanced: 52.1% eFG, 18.9 PER, 7.5 Win Shares

Bam Adebayo has long been a very good player who doesn’t seem quite capable of being a great player. We’ve seen him be one of the very best rim protectors and defenders in the league for almost all of his career. Offensively, he’s a gifted passer and good, albeit reluctant, shooter. He’s played in big moments and had chances to make his mark but never seized those opportunities.

The key for Adebayo is to find a way to be great. If Adebayo continues to play at the same level, Miami might not even win a game. If Adebayo can be great, the best player in a few games, then the Heat are suddenly a scary opponent for a Cavaliers team with big expectations.

Series Prediction: Cavaliers vs. Heat

Our model at FTN agrees with the sportsbooks. We make the Cavaliers prohibitive favorites, even a little more than the market.

FTN Model Prediction: Heat

According to FTN’s model, the Cavaliers are all but certain to win this series and advance.

Noops’ Pick: Cavaliers in 5

This is likely a straightforward series. Barring a few catastrophic injuries, the Cavaliers have the much better basketball team and have played much better than the Heat all season. Cleveland has the best player in the series and four of the six best players. Of course, coach Erik Spoelstra seems to always find a way to get his team to perform better than expected. I expect to see him try to use big lineups to make the game more physical and more of a grind. He could also use more shooters and have the Heat shoot as many threes as possible in the hopes that they get hot enough to win. Unfortunately, it’s hard to do both at the same time. Their big lineups don’t have enough shooting and their shooting lineups can’t attack the glass well enough. Miami could win a game but is unlikely to win more than one. Cleveland is just a much better team in almost every way. The Cavaliers should win this series early, and I think it’s a good contender for the shortest series.

Best Bets for Cavaliers vs. Heat

With such a big favorite, it’s hard to find bets that don’t force us to lay a lot of juice, but there are still a few wagers worth making.

Cleveland Cavaliers 4-1 Correct Score 

+195 DraftKings

The market believes that the most likely outcome is Cavaliers 4-0. Maybe I’m overestimating Erik Spoelstra or the talent left on Miami’s roster, but I don’t expect the sweep. The Heat have been in this position before and know how to find strategies that although risky, actually give them a chance to win a game rather than just keep things close and lose. As I mentioned earlier, that could be with bigger lineups that can create more possessions by grabbing offensive rebounds or forcing turnovers. It could also be by upping their three-point attempts to 50+ per game and hoping they can find a way to shoot 40% or better from deep. Cleveland is much better and certainly could sweep, but I think it takes the Cavs five games more often than the price of +195 dictates.

Tyler Herro Series Points Leader 

+160 DraftKings

Donovan Mitchell is the favorite in this market, which makes sense, but what if the Cavaliers really do sweep the series and win games by big margins? Will he play 35-40 minutes per game in that scenario or more like 30-35 or less? Tyler Herro is going to average close to 40 minutes per game regardless of how the series goes. What if Mitchell realizes he doesn’t need his best stuff and defers to his teammates like he has during the regular season? Herro will shoot the ball a lot whether he wants to or not. I think the books are failing to understand the implications of a dominant Cavaliers win, which is the most likely outcome. I’m betting on the player who I believe will have the most usage. I’m betting on Herro.

Final Thoughts on Cavs vs. Heat

This series is unlikely to be competitive. There might not even be a game worth watching past halftime. The Cavaliers were arguably the best team all season until their expected swoon, as they rested players and saved their best stuff for the postseason. In a lot of ways, this is a perfect round one opponent for them. The Heat didn’t get a week off because they had to fight through the Play-In Tournament, so the Cavaliers can parlay a rest advantage with their home-court advantage in the first two games. With a 2-0 series lead, all they have to do is steal one game in Miami to close things out, in Cleveland, in Game 5. It makes things so much easier for them, but they will still be playing a team that will be creative in their strategies and challenge the Cavaliers to play well. Cleveland is not going to win this series because Miami quits. The Cavaliers will win this series because they are the better team in the better position, but it will also be an opportunity for Cleveland to get tested, which will help it as it advances to the NBA Finals.