WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Welcome to my 2024 NBA Mock Draft, version 2.0. I’ve mocked all 30 first-round picks in this article, with a bit more attention paid to the lottery picks (1-14). You’ll also find some of my favorite prop bets at the end of the article. Enjoy!
2024 NBA Mock Draft
1.1 — Atlanta: Donovan Clingan, Connecticut
The consensus pick here is Zacharie Risacher, and I totally get why that’s the case. But unless Trae Young is traded, the Hawks taking Clingan here makes a lot more sense to me. They don’t control their next three first-round picks after shipping them all unprotected (2026 is swap rights) to San Antonio for Dejounte Murray, so unless we see a move that signals an upcoming tank, why would the Hawks be doing anything but building around the all-star level piece they have? Clint Capela is an expiring contract and not long for the roster, slotting Clingan in for the long haul on a rookie scale deal is the move. He’s bigger, longer, ten years younger and the perfect guy in this “down” draft class to pair with Young moving forward.
1.2 — Washington: Alexandre Sarr, Perth
Reports are that Sarr himself is a fan of going second to Washington. They don’t have any established players in their frontcourt outside of Kyle Kuzma, and there should be plenty of opportunity for him to develop at the first team level next year. Sarr was with Overtime Elite two seasons ago and went down under for the 2023-24 season to play with Perth in the NBL. In Australia, he found success in the Wildcat rotation, proving that his athleticism and defensive acumen can be effective enough at the pro level even at 19 years old. He does seem, like most young bigs, like he’d rather be out on the wing running and gunning. But Sarr has yet to prove he can be remotely consistent enough as a shooter to get the green light from an NBA coach, as he shot below 30% from three and just 61% from the free throw line with Perth. The upside on the defensive end combined with the fluid handle for his size on offense should have Wizards fans excited for what could be.
1.3 – Houston (from Brooklyn): Reed Sheppard, Kentucky
Word is that the Rockets have been shopping this pick for weeks now, but I don’t play trade machine with my mock drafts, so we’re making the pick. And this fit makes a ton of sense to me for the timeline in Houston. Sheppard is small, coming in a hair under 6-foot-2 with a 6-3 wingspan at the combine. But he’s surprisingly tenacious on defense and his quick hands nabbed him 2.5 steals per game at Kentucky last season. Sheppard was tied for first at the combine in standing vertical leap as well, coming in at a 42-inch max vert. He’s also a dead-eye shooter, going 52.1% on more than four attempts per game. With Fred VanVleet the starter for now, Sheppard won’t have the pressure a top three pick typically feels to perform right away, and he can step into the starting spot as soon as next season if Houston declines the team option on VanVleet this time next summer.
1.4 – San Antonio: Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg
Apparently the Spurs had Risacher in for a private second workout over the weekend. Maybe they’re looking to trade up, or maybe they think he could simply fall to them at four as I have in the mock. Regardless, he is going to be a top-five pick. The rapid development Risacher exhibited this past year has rocketed him up draft boards and is the consensus top pick as of this writing. Even though I’ve got him at four, I’m still very high on his outlook after he made 38.3% of his threes this past season in all competitions. His ability to knock down the three off screens and off the bounce combined with a lateral quickness that was a bit eye opening for me when watching his film makes him a high-floor, high-ceiling option in this class. It doesn’t hurt that he’s buddy-buddy with Victor Wembanyama.
1.5 – Detroit: Matas Buzelis, G-League Ignite
One of the picks that hasn’t changed for me from last month’s mock. Even though Buzelis was a letdown from three considering the expectations this year after shooting 43.1% from deep in his final high school season, the upside as a long-range specialist is clearly there. But he’s not a one-trick pony, and the overall basketball IQ that Buzelis has exhibited at the G-League level does give me some hope that he’ll adjust to the NBA game. Like most guys his age, Buzelis needs to add some muscle to protect his handle and improve his finishing at the rim. The best thing about him is that the intangibles are present. Buzelis has a great feel for the game and plays his butt off, which is far from a given with highly rated prospects. It does feel like Detroit has needs on the wing, considering their backcourt is set with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey and is paired with an equally young and exciting frontcourt duo of Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson.
1.6 – Charlotte: Stephon Castle, Connecticut
There’s a ton of buzz (no pun intended) about Castle going in the top four, especially to San Antonio. But if the draft plays out how I see it then, barring a trade, it’s tough for me to justify one of those four clubs making the pick. Even though he’s made his desire to play the one at the NBA level known, Castle’s ability to play as a secondary creator makes sense next to LaMelo Ball. Castle’s defensive acumen is unquestioned, at least by me, but it’s the lack of shooting ability that keeps him out of the top five in my mock. At both the collegiate and high school levels, Castle shot below 30% from three. That will have to improve for him to hit his ceiling in the NBA.
1.7 – Portland: Cody Williams, Colorado
The younger brother of Oklahoma City’s Jalen, Cody Williams is a 6-foot-6 wing with a 7-1 wingspan and a high-upside prospect who underwhelmed a bit compared to preseason expectations in his one season with the Buffaloes. He displayed what I’d consider above average decision making as a freshman. If he’s able to be more consistent from deep as he progresses through his rookie contract after shooting a phenomenal 41.5% (on just 1.7 attempts per game) in his one year with Colorado, this could end up looking like a steal. Portland has the time to be patient with their young prospects this year, no matter who they select, as they add them to their stable of developing talent alongside guys like Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe.
1.8 – San Antonio (from Toronto): Devin Carter, Providence
As our resident Spurs homer, this is not the pick I want them to make. Not that it doesn’t make sense to me or that I’d be upset about it, but as I’ll talk about momentarily, I would select a certain Serbian here. There’s a little bit of smoke in the industry around San Antonio being highly interested in him at this spot. Carter is experienced, already 22 years old and the reigning Big East Player of the Year. He contributed across the box score this year for Providence and showed off a much-improved efficiency from beyond the arc in his junior season. The son of former NBA player Anthony Carter, Devin had a fantastic combine, breaking the record in the three-quarter court sprint and posting a 42-inch vertical leap (tied with Sheppard). Standing at 6-foot-2, he’s also got a wingspan a touch over 6-8. With those measurables and the fact he knocked down 37.7% of his threes on 6.6 attempts per game last season, are we really that surprised if he goes even higher than this? In an unimpressive draft on paper, there’s still gems to be found and if the improvements Carter displayed last season are for real, he could be the Spurs point guard of the future.
1.9 – Memphis: Ron Holland, G-League Ignite
A preseason first overall pick in many mocks last fall, Holland was a member of last year’s Ignite roster. His lack of consistency beyond the arc was concerning at the G-League level, shooting just 24% from deep. However, Holland’s body type is one that NBA teams typically salivate over. He still profiles as a guy with star potential considering his size and defensive upside on the wing. One thing I never questioned when watching his film was the effort level and again, coaches will like that about him as well. He works on defense and his length and mobility gives him the versatility to switch on the perimeter. Now ask yourself, doesn’t that sound like a Grizzlies “grit and grind” type of guy? I love the fit.
1.10 – Utah: Nikola Topić, Crvena Zvezda
My sweet, sweet Topić. Like I mentioned in my first mock, this may be my own personal bias but first of all, I’d rather take the successful European pro in their late teens than a guy with one year at the NCAA level more often than not. Second, the sheer size of Topić (a hair under 6-foot-6 without shoes) is likely to be one factor that sets him above the rest for many teams looking at adding a point guard early in this draft. After some initial optimism that he’d be ready to workout prior to the draft, the non-contact injury he sustained in the Serbian League playoffs was a partial ACL tear, and we haven’t heard a ton about it since. In fact, from what I can find we’re still waiting on U.S. based doctors to get a look at him. At 6-6 and averaging 19 points, 7 assists and 4 rebounds per game in the Serbian league this season, Topić clearly has the highest NBA upside of this guard class for me. His vision and decision making have been drawing the attention of NBA scouts for a long while now. If his three-point shooting ability (just 30.6% across all competitions last season) was any higher and he was healthy he’d be in the conversation for the first pick. Here, Utah has no delusions of grandeur next season. They’ve got the time to let him heal up and benefit from the significant upside Topić possesses.
1.11 – Chicago: Rob Dillingham, Kentucky
Chicago just made the first big move of the offseason, acquiring Josh Giddey from Oklahoma City in exchange for Alex Caruso. Adding Dillingham to this backcourt depth chart feels like great value just outside the top 10. He’s an explosive scorer and that was on display at Kentucky last year where he shot 44.4% from three on 4.5 attempts per game and also put some impressive shot creation on ability film. His size, coming in at 6-foot-1 with a 6-2 wingspan, is a concern for some. It does feel like his ceiling is a Lou Williams type of sixth-man, or maybe a more accurate and modern comparison is Malik Monk without the insane vertical. Seems like a nice fit to let him try to settle into a sixth man role off the bench behind Coby White and Giddey for next year and figure it out from there.
1.12 – Oklahoma City (from Houston): Tidjane Salaun, Cholet
There’s a lot of hype around Salaun leading up to draft night. I’ve seen a lot of people say he might get snatched up by the Spurs at eight, and I considered that myself all the way back in my first mock in May. Maybe he goes even higher than that off the perceived upside along. His raw talent has been turning heads over the last few months. Salaun’s defensive prowess isn’t in question for me, he looks impressive on and off the ball on that end. What could very well be a mirage is his efficiency from distance. But there’s no better landing spot to figure that out than with legendary ex-Spurs shooting coach Chip Engelland, who has been in OKC for a few seasons now. Salaun’s rise up draft boards reminds me of the intrigue surrounding Bilal Coulibaly last draft season, and I don’t think he makes it past OKC here if nobody else takes the swing earlier.
1.13 – Sacramento: Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor
From the wingspan to being a Baylor Bear, it sure feels like Sacramento owner Vivek Ranadive will be pounding the table for Walter. In the mold of Davion Mitchell (but with much more upside in my opinion), Walter is a lengthy guard that is sure to cause problems out on the perimeter measuring at 6-foot-4 with a 6-10 wingspan at the combine. He’s also three years younger than Mitchell when he was drafted and is a much better shooter off the bounce. Putting the former five-star recruit in this backcourt could finally be the answer to “who the heck can we put next to De’Aaron Fox”?
1.14 – Portland (from Golden State via Boston and Memphis): Dalton Knecht, Tennessee
Even though he’s up a few picks from where I had him in May, the guy who has “slipped” the most in my mock relative to the industry is Knecht. I’ve seen him mocked as high as fifth to the Pistons during draft season, but I’m not as excited about him as others seem to be. However, he makes a ton of sense for Portland if he falls, considering the Blazers were the worst three-point shooting team in the league last year. He’s a killer catch and shoot player, knocking down 39.7% of his threes last year with Tennessee on 6.5 attempts per game. Not that they’ll be contending for a thing next year, but at 23 years old, Knecht brings a more mature presence than most prospects to a team that only has two players over the age of 27 and nine younger than 25.
1.15 – Miami: Jared McCain, Duke
Another pick that hasn’t changed for me over the last month. As is tradition, the blurbs get shorter once we leave the lottery in the rearview. Very simple for me at 15, Miami needs help in their backcourt behind Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro. He knows how to run an offense, is an above average shooter and his defensive acumen is sure to attract the eyes of Pat Riley in the draft process.
1.16 – Philadelphia: Tristan Da Silva, Colorado
After a fantastic showing at the NCAA tournament, Da Silva is expected to go somewhere in this range. He’s a productive two-way player and his ability to space the floor (nearly 40% on his catch and shoot attempts from three) while displaying an above average feel for defensive rotations at the NCAA level gives me a lot of hope that Da Silva won’t end up being a reach at this spot. Da Silva is far from the most elite athlete in this class, but he makes up for it with his basketball IQ. He’s already one of the older prospects in this class as he turned 23 last month. That should gel nicely with a Philadelphia team that needs NBA-ready help from this pick, as their championship window (however small) is now.
1.17 – Los Angeles Lakers: Isaiah Collier, USC
Sandwiching the Da Silva pick with another that hasn’t changed for me since last month’s mock. Collier was a consensus top five option in preseason mocks and a poor individual season combined with an underperforming USC team has seen him slip hard over the course of the year. The Lakers get a high upside guard to mix into their backcourt and pair with Jalen Hood-Schifino with an eye to the post-LeBron era.
1.18 – Orlando: Kyshawn George, Miami
Another guy with a wide range of draft outcomes in this class, George is looking like an unexpected one-and-done out of Miami. He shot over 40% from three and his 6-foot-7 frame looks like it should hold up on the perimeter in the league. Not that we should give up on a teenager after one season, but Orlando had a swing and a miss on Jett Howard last year in terms of getting the help that they need immediately for a team that’s ready to take the next step in the East. I expect them to look for another option with a similar profile to help them spread the floor around Paolo Banchero going forward.
1.19 – Toronto (from Indiana): Kel’el Ware, Indiana
Another guy who could go in the mid-teens and none of us should be surprised. He’s a hair under 7-foot-0 with a 7-4 wingspan, while also sporting an above average ability to knock down threes for his size. Think Mitchell Robinson with a higher ceiling. With Christian Koloko sitting out last season with issues involving career-threatening blood clots, look for the Raptors to bolster their frontcourt with this pick considering that uncertainty.
1.20 – Cleveland: Johnny Furphy, Kansas
It appears that the Cavs have a better chance than previously thought to re-sign Donovan Mitchell. Unless they’re moving on from one of their other “core four,” then Furphy makes a ton of sense to me at 20. At Kansas, he was great with his off ball movement, finding open space both on the perimeter and with slashing cuts into the paint. He can shoot reliably from distance and holds his own on the defensive end. Coming into a team where he won’t be relied upon to play-make himself feels like a great fit and fills the spot likely left vacant by an out of contract Isaac Okoro.
1.21 – New Orleans (from Milwaukee): Yves Missi, Baylor
The Pelicans need to replace the outgoing Jonas Valanciunas. I’m not suggesting that any center they could grab at 21 is going to be starting caliber right away and certainly not categorizing Missi as such. He is still a raw prospect, but his work on the glass in encouraging for a team that really got punished on the glass when Valanciunas was off the court last season.
1.22 – Phoenix: Tyler Kolek, Marquette
Two things I think Phoenix needs headed into next season, considering the lack of flexibility they have with their cap and roster build. A capable (true) point guard and guys who can play right away. Kolek provides both. He’s already 23 years old and showed NBA level ability to command an offense at Marquette. I’m not surprised if the Suns trade this pick for multiple second rounders, considering the new rules surrounding the length of contracts those picks can receive, but if they keep 22 then Kolek is a good fit.
1.23 – Milwaukee (from New Orleans): Zach Edey, Purdue
I’m not personally an Edey believer at the NBA level, but plenty of folks smarter than me are, so I’ll take their word for it. Considering his size, he’s incredibly durable. Of course, Edey was an elite low-post scorer with Purdue, but will that translate to the league? I think it can. My bigger concern is his ability to stay on the floor due to his deficiencies on the defensive end. Edey switched onto NBA guards? Ha. I don’t see it. But it’s the 23rd pick and Milwaukee needs help at the position considering Brook Lopez is on an expiring deal this season. Feels like a good fit for both parties all things considered.
1.24 – New York (from Dallas): Ryan Dunn, Virginia
Back-to-back picks for the Knicks and I’ve got essentially polar opposite picks for this pair of selections. Dunn could end up being a very special defender. He’s 6-foot-6 but sports a 7-1 wingspan, which helps him not only be switchable on the perimeter but also contribute as an undersized rim defender. I’ve seen him talked about as the best pure defender in the class and after watching some film, it’s tough for me to disagree. Dunn should fit seamlessly into what head coach Tom Thibodeau wants to do on that end of the floor, but with an offensive game that makes Matisse Thybulle look serviceable, that could end up being a hurdle for playing time in consequential games, especially early in his career.
1.25 – New York: Baylor Scheierman, Creighton
Scheierman had a great week at the combine, playing especially well in the scrimmages. He’s an incredible shooter to watch, with extremely deep range and a lefty release that’s oh so sweet, knocking down 38.1% of his threes on 8.3 attempts per game at Creighton last season. Scheierman isn’t going to wow you defensively and that could certainly be a hurdle to being selected by a Tom Thibodeau coached team. But with Bojan Bogdanovic on an expiring contract this season, I like the pick from a long-term perspective.
1.26 – Washington (from LA Clippers via Dallas and Oklahoma City): Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh
Young player who could go much earlier than this in the first round based on some of the hype in the past few weeks. Carrington is young and won’t turn 19 until after the draft. With the Wizards taking Sarr in this mock at two, one has to think they’d address their backcourt needs next. He can handle, distribute and score the ball and had more than a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio at Pitt as a freshman. Carrington falling to 26 would be great value for the Wiz.
1.27 – Minnesota: Bobi Klintman, Cairns Taipans
One more pick that hasn’t changed for me since May. Like Sarr, Klintman is another European player that took his talents to Australia last season. Minnesota is unlikely to get an immediate contributor with this pick, so grabbing the high upside size/shooting combination of Klintman and letting him develop in the background while you make another run at a title next season? Works for me. And if his timeline goes quicker than that, then you’re looking an another weapon that helps you mix and match against opponents who may force one of Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert off the floor at times.
1.28 – Denver: Daron Holmes II, Dayton
The Nuggets need a lot of help with their depth and once again they don’t have a lot of cap space to work with. The struggles of being a contender. There are rumors based off an ESPN report that Holmes shut down workouts after working out with the Nuggets, and that Denver has made him a promise with the 28th pick. That would signal that they view Holmes as a guy who can come in and win the backup center job behind Nikola Jokic.
1.29 – Utah (from Oklahoma City): Kyle Filipowski, Duke
If head coach Will Hardy is cooling on a guy like Walker Kessler, who only got the nod in a third of his appearances last season after coming in as the presumed starter, then I’m not surprised if they go with a frontcourt option near the end of the first. Filipowski’s ability to handle the ball and be a reliable shooter at his size makes him an intriguing choice and a low risk one at that if he falls this far.
1.30 – Boston: Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois
After being found not guilty in his rape trial earlier this month, this feels like a high-upside swing for the defending champions if they’re comfortable enough to take him. A skilled offensive player who averaged 23 points per game with the Illini last season, Shannon has lots of defensive upside as well. He’s prone to making some highlight plays on that end, both in the halfcourt and in transition. Already nearly 24 years old, Shannon could find himself with a rotational role for the C’s alongside names like Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser next season.
Favorite Props
(Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Donovan Clingan – First overall pick (+280)
Dalton Knecht – Draft position O 8.5 (+125)
Matas Buzelis – Fifth overall pick (+110)
