Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the NBA season less than a month away, it’s time to take a look at some of the best futures available to us in the betting market. Below you’ll find a short list of some of the futures that I’m keying in on as media day approaches next Monday.
2024-2025 NBA Futures
MVP
The Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
(+500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The great Mike Randle talked about this pick on this week’s episode of the FTN Fast Break, and he’s got me fully on board. It also plays into my next futures pick up in Chicago that we’ll talk about in a moment.
Gilgeous-Alexander was second in MVP voting last season behind Nikola Jokic and above Luka Doncic, the two players with shorter odds than SGA at the moment on DraftKings Sportsbook. For what it’s worth, he was also fifth in MVP voting the season prior. The Thunder clinched the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs by way of a tiebreaker on the final day of the season, but I expect them to (assuming health) bulldoze their way to the top spot once again this year.
Of course, it’s not a hard and fast rule that the MVP goes to “the best player on the best team.” But I don’t think that Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks, who finished seven games behind the Thunder’s pace last season, will be able to close that gap to a point where Doncic will take home his first MVP award. That, combined with a less-than-ideal offseason for Jokic’s Denver Nuggets and I think this is SGA’s accolade to lose coming into the year.
The Longshot: Victor Wembanyama
(+2000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I have to mention my guy here. This is the best “value” on the board right now and I’ve been saying that in the NBA channels of the FTN Fantasy Discord all summer. That number has moved since I first highlighted it to our subscribers as my favorite longshot futures pick a few weeks back at +2500. Similar to my longshot pick of him to win Defensive Player of the Year during preseason last fall, which came up just short as fellow Frenchman Rudy Gobert took home the award with Wemby second, he is the looming threat to those at the top of these odds. If Wembanyama continues his ascension at the same rate we saw in his rookie year, these odds will be half of what they are now by the time the holidays roll around in a few months.
Most Improved Player
The Pick: Josh Giddey
(+1700, DraftKings Sportsbook)
While Victor Wembanyama is the favorite to bring home Most Improved Player honors this season, my pick is the newest member of the Chicago Bulls backcourt, Josh Giddey. The sixth overall pick from the 2021 draft was shipped northward in the offseason in exchange for Alex Caruso. In his new digs, Giddey will have the opportunity flourish statistically as the lead guard in the Bulls offense. Sure, Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are still present, as are Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic (for now), but I expect Giddey to build on what he did in his second season with the Thunder rather than continue the statistical downturn we saw across the board last season.
Last year, Giddey posted 12.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. In the 2022-23 season, his sophomore season in the league, he averaged 16.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists. He also averaged six more minutes per game that year, which is key to this pick. Giddey is on an expiring contract and will be looking to make a significant statistical impact to secure an extension with the Bulls or a second contract with another team through free agency. I’m projecting him as the lead guard for the Bulls and he did display that box-score stuffing ability in the seven games without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last season, averaging 19 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.7 assists in that sample. I think we see that type of stat line become the norm this season for the soon-to-be 22-year-old guard. Giddey also had a successful run in this summer’s Olympic tournament, posting 17.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists in 29.4 minutes per game across Australia’s four competitions.
Memphis Grizzlies Playoff Seed – Under 6.5
(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Grizzlies are going to be a hot topic and trendy sleeper pick in a stacked Western Conference headed into the season. I think it’s for good reason. After a nightmare season marred with a plethora of injuries and a high-profile suspension, Memphis should be mostly at full-strength headed into the season opener. GG Jackson broke his foot earlier this month and will miss the first couple of months, but he’s a depth piece for what is ultimately a very strong projected rotation.
Don’t forget, Memphis is just one season removed from finishing as the second overall seed in the Western Conference at 51-31 (just behind the Nuggets) before the downturn last year. While a number of other teams in the conference have improved since, most notably Oklahoma City and Minnesota who were the ninth and eighth seeds respectively in the 2022-23 season, it’s extremely tough for me to see the Grizzlies not securing a top six seed this year as they look to return to their previous form. I like this play a lot at even odds on DK.
