Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2024 NBA Draft is over, and free agency starts in a few days. That gives a brief but valuable period to assess each team and try to take some early positions in the NBA futures markets. The odds for teams to win the title or their conference are open all season and move throughout the year.
If we can time our entry points correctly, we can build a portfolio of futures that ensures us a profit regardless of whomever wins. We’ll address award winners and division winners later, but let’s go through each team to see where they stand to win their conference or the NBA title and try to find some value worth taking right now.
2024-2025 NBA Odds and Best Bets
Eastern Conference
It’s going to be difficult for any team to defeat the NBA Champion Boston Celtics this coming season. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford are all still under contract. The Celtics will have retool their bench a little, but they are currently favored to win the NBA title, and the Eastern Conference just like they were for all of last season. Boston has the most talent and is the team least susceptible to falling apart if one or even two of their starters have to miss an extended period of time. The Celtics are the rare team that has a high ceiling and a high floor. I agree they should be favored but at prices ranging from +120 to +140, I don’t see much value in betting them to win the Eastern Conference right now. That range of pricing will be available for at least the next few months and might even get better if other teams in the East can improve their situation.
Those other teams are the Knicks, Bucks and 76ers. The Knicks made the biggest move of the offseason so far by trading for Mikal Bridges. New York now has a core of Jaylen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Bridges and Julius Randle. They also have Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson, but the status of Isaiah Hartenstein hangs in the balance. Hartenstein isn’t eligible for an extension, and the Knicks only have limited ways to pay him, which means other teams will be able to offer him more money and more years. If New York can find a way to keep Hartenstein, they’re a potentially scary matchup for the Celtics. Without him, there’s a big hole to fill. There’s also the constant question of what the Knicks might do with Julius Randle. They are priced at +350 to +400 to win the conference and that’s not big enough given the uncertainty about Hartenstein and Randle.
Last season was a mess for the Bucks, and even if they can’t acquire any new players, they know things should at the very least be much smoother. Damian Lillard has spoken openly about not training last offseason and being in poor shape throughout the season. Doc Rivers took over as head coach during the middle of the season and didn’t have training camp and practices to build the team in his vision. The Bucks will be more stable, have a healthy and motivated Lillard and (still) Giannis Antetokounmpo. That’s a strong foundation, but one that still needs more talent around it. At +500 to +550, they are just behind the Knicks in the odds to win the Eastern Conference. I’d have them priced closer to New York, but I don’t see enough value to bet them right now. This is another number that I don’t expect to change much in the coming months.
The 76ers currently have under contract Joel Embiid, Paul Reed and Ricky Council IV. That’s it. That’s the list. Tyrese Maxey and the team have agreed on an extension, but pen has yet to be put to paper to help the 76ers sign other free agents. Philadelphia also drafted Jared McCain, who will get a contract. That gives the team just enough guys to fill out a starting lineup. This was Daryl Morey’s plan all of last season. He saw the chance to open enough cap space to sign two close-to-max contracts or one max and a few other big pieces and that’s exactly where the 76ers are right now. Players like Paul George, DeMar DeRozan, Miles Bridges, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Klay Thompson, Tyus Jones, Bruce Brown and several others could and should get a long hard look from the 76ers. They are priced from +650 to +750 to win the Eastern Conference which could be a great bet or a terrible bet. We just really don’t know until we see how they fill out the remaining 10 spots on their roster.
As for everyone else, barring some absurd trade to net them a few All-Stars, I’ll eat my hat if the Nets, Pistons, Wizards, Hornets, Raptors, Bulls or Hawks represent the Eastern Conference in the 2024-25 NBA Finals. The Magic are probably a year or two away from being a title contender, although they have the assets to make a big move this summer. For now, they’re not bettable. The Cavaliers have to figure out how to keep Donovan Mitchell, then find a trade partner for Darius Garland, and finally figure out how to split up Evan Mobely and Jarrett Allen. That’s a lot of work to do and it won’t lead to a potentially great team. The Heat are always lurking like Jason Voorhees, ready to strike with terror at a moment, but also like Jason Vorhees, kind of old and not as scary as they once were. There are always moves to make, but if the Heat plan to just run things back next season, I won’t be betting on them.
Did you notice the one team I left out of that paragraph? This squad managed their star player through a hamstring all season, lost a potential Sixth Man of the Year to injury, and worked in a new, high usage player during the middle of the season. Despite all of that, the Indiana Pacers managed to make the Eastern Conference Finals. Let me be clear, Indiana isn’t nearly as talented as the Celtics, Knicks, Bucks or 76ers. What the Pacers are is a team that can improve organically with player development and an offseason of practicing together as a group. They have a deep roster full of athletes and shooters to surround Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner. I expect Indiana to win a lot of games, compete for the Central division title, and have a chance to make the Eastern Conference Finals again. At +2500, I think there’s value in putting a small wager on them to win the East now before they have a chance to start the season strongly again. I’ll likely bet them to win the Central Division, but let’s wait for the schedule before we do that.
Bet
Indiana Pacers to Win the Eastern Conference (+2500, BetMGM), 0.5U
Western Conference
Depending on where you look, one of three Northwest Division teams are favored to win the Western Conference. The Nuggets, Thunder and Timberwolves are priced from +400 to +500 to make the NBA Finals. They are clearly three of the four teams in the conference and there’s not any reason to expect any of them get any worse. The Thunder made a few trades to move in the draft to address their lack of ball handlers and players who can attack the basket. The Timberwolves have shown no fear of the looming tax bill and even traded up to the No. 8 pick to grab Rob Dillingham who could be a good scorer off the bench. The Nuggets are in danger of losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but they have a smart front office who will make things work around Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray regardless. I think the books have priced these teams properly and I’m not betting on any of them right now.
The other team priced in the upper echelon is the Mavericks, who were the Western Conference representative in the 2023-24 NBA Finals. They need to retain Derrick Jones Jr., but there aren’t many options for the Mavericks to improve. They fired most of their bullets last season to acquire Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Those moves got them to the NBA Finals but also make things more difficult this offseason. Of course, this is still a great team with one of the best players in the NBA. I could not have been more impressed with how Luka Doncic responded to criticism during the NBA Finals and raised his game. If Doncic can continue to improve and everyone else can maintain their level, then the Mavericks will have a chance to wint he West again. They are priced around +500 to win the conference and similar to some other numbers at the top of the board, I don’t expect that to change in the near future so no need to make a bet now.
The next group of teams is the entire Pacific Division. The Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Lakers and Kings are all priced from +1400 to +2800 to win the conference. The Suns will benefit from a new head coach and a season learning to play together, but Kevin Durant is a year older, the players beyond the top five to six guys are not talented enough, and there is little to no way for them to improve the roster. The Clippers are moving into a new arena but one of their top three players, Kawhi Leonard, is currently under contract. James Harden is expected to re-sign, but Paul George seems to be headed out the door. It’s hard to see the Clippers being as good as they were last season, let alone better. Stephen Curry is capable of greatness at any time, but it’s starting to look like the championship window for the Warriors is almost shut. They could find a creative way to get some new players, but barring something surprising they won’t be much better than they were last season. The Lakers got 70-plus games played from LeBron James and Anthony Davis but were never a title contender and they haven’t done anything to improve. The Kings were not a threat to win the West last year and have done nothing to change that fact this season. I’m happy to fade the Pacific Division this upcimign season and I’ll start now by simply not betting on any of them.
As for the other teams, add the Jazz and Trail Blazers to the “I’ll eat my hat if they win their conference” list you read earlier. Victor Wembanyama might be capable of anything, but I will literally believe “capable of anything” to be true if the Spurs somehow win the Western Conference this season. The Pelicans and Rockets are an intriguing dichotomy. Both could surprise contenders to win a playoff series or two, but both are heading in opposite directions. The Pelicans seem to be on course to lose Brandon Ingram and likely will be forced to move CJ McCollum to avoid tax bills. The Rockets don’t have a star player yet, but there is a lot of talent on the rosters and assets in the war chest to acquire a star. I’m skipping of all of these teams.
Well, I did it again. I’ve held back one team that sits further down the odds board and has the upside needed for us to bet now. The Grizzlies used 51 different starting lineups over 82 games. That is a new starting five every 1.6 games. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart and Brandon Clarke combined to miss 267 games. If those guys can be healthy, the Grizzlies will effectively add two-to-three All-Star players worth of production. There is also the added benefit of having used all of last season to develop players like GG Jackson, Santi Aldama and others who showed they can be good NBA players. Memphis is the clear choice for the team to improve its record the most season-over-season and at +2000 priced to be bet now. Barring a rough schedule to start the season, I don’t think we’ll see the Grizzlies priced at greater than 20:1 to win the Western Conference again.
Bet
Memphis Grizzlies to Win the Western Conference (+2000, FanDuel Sportsbook), 0.5U
To Win the NBA Championship
This is not a market I often bet unless I have a strong opinion on a team. Some years, you bet too much on the Nuggets and they reward you by winning the title. Other years, you bet too much on the Nuggets and they blow a game to the Spurs, end up on the wrong side of the bracket, and lose in Round 2. Boston, as they have been since before last season, are the favorites to win the title and that makes perfect sense. They don’t have one of the five best players in the league, but they have at least five of the top 50 and sit in the easier of the two conferences. The Knicks are second favorite, but as I expressed earlier, I’m worried about their center position. The top four Western Conference teams are all bunched together, which makes it hard to find value on any of them. I might talk myself into a Bucks or 76ers title future, but there’s no reason to rush into anything now. I wouldn’t mind bets on the teams I already took to win their respective conferences, but I see more value in those conference futures for now. So, no bets for me right now on any NBA to win the 2024-25 Championship.
