NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The NBA season is almost here. One of the most fun parts of the NBA and one of the best ways to find value in preseason NBA betting is awards. The markets for Most Valuable Player, Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year offer ways to bet on a team’s success outside of the standard futures markets. As we head toward the start of the season, we’re going to take a look at the best bets and histories of each award and find the best prices to bet.
Below: Most Improved Player.
2023-2024 NBA Most Improved Player
Past 10 Winners
- 2023: Lauri Markkanen (UTA)
- 2022: Ja Morant (MEM)
- 2021: Julius Randle (NYK)
- 2020: Brandon Ingram (NOP)
- 2019: Pascal Siakam (TOR)
- 2018: Victor Oladipo (IND)
- 2017: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
- 2016: CJ McCollum (POR)
- 2015: Jimmy Butler (CHI)
- 2014: Goran Dragic (PHX)
Key Takeaways from Past Winners
- The last 10 winners combined to play 713 games and started in 712 of them in the seasons they won. Pascal Siakam came off the bench in the third game of the season he won.
- On average, the Most Improved Player is in his fourth or fifth season. Only three of the last 10 were past their fifth season.
- The last 10 winners played on winning teams, with an average win rate of 56.6%.
- The winner increased their points per game by 7.3, rebounds per game by 1.6 and assists per game by 1.4 on average.
- Seven of the last 10 winners made the All-Star Team.
To summarize: We want a starter on a winning team, in his first five years in the league, with an opportunity for big increases in PPG, RPG and APG totals, who also might be an All-Star.
Bets to Avoid
Mikal Bridges +800
Mikal Bridges is the deserving favorite, but I can’t justify a wager at price worse than +1500. The field this year is wide open, so we need to make sure we grab big numbers. Bridges will certainly see his usage increase, but he averaged 26.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 2.7 APG. It could be tough to get to 30/6/4, which is likely the bar he needs to get over to win MIP. Another consideration is whether the Nets can be a winning team. Their current regular season win total is 37.5, which would be a 46.3% win rate.
Cade Cunningham +1200
The Pistons are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA. The guard spots on the Eastern Conference All-Star team are highly competitive. Cade Cunningham is returning from a season long injury. For the Pistons to be a winning team, they will need him to be great, which will drive all the stats and attention needed to win this award, but this price is much too low. +1200 has a breakeven probability of 7.7%. There is a much lower chance than that of Cunningham being great enough to make the Pistons a winning team in 2023-24.
Jordan Poole +1400
The Wizards are too bad to justify a number this small. Washington is projected to be the worst team in the NBA, with 4-5 fewer wins than the second-worst team. Jordan Poole will load up on usage on this team, but even if he can up his scoring average to 28-plus points per game (an increase of more than 8), it won’t be enough for him to garner the attention needed to win MIP let alone make the Eastern Conference All-Star Team. The current price of +1400 is much too low to be bet. I would need to see +3000 or higher to even consider a wager.
Anfernee Simons +1600
There is a lot of usage to be had on the new-look Trail Blazers, and Anfernee Simons is locked in as a starter. Unfortunately, I see him as the third or fourth option behind Scoot Henderson, Deandre Ayton and Shaedon Sharpe. That makes it hard for him to raise his stat averages enough to win this award. On top of that, Portland is not going to be very good this year. There is talent in the starting five, but the bench is thin, and the focus is on developing players more than winning games. This is an easy pass.
Josh Giddey +2000
Jalen Williams +2200
Both of these guys are going to be key pieces on an Oklahoma City Thunder team that will have a chance to host a playoff series at home, but can they generate the stats needed? Jalen Williams will score more points, but I don’t think he can increase his average by 5 points or more. He’s more of a defensive player, which is generally not as well rewarded as offense. Josh Giddey has the offensive skills to be a positive force and win games for OKC, but any increases will likely come in assists per game and efficiency metrics and not the counting stats that seem to drive voters. I’ll pass on both.
Bets to Consider Later in the Season
Tyrese Maxey +1200
He was one of the favorites to win MIP early last season but missed about 20 games due to injury and lost momentum. Tyrese Maxey also had to compete with James Harden for usage. As things stand right now, Harden is still on the roster, but I do not expect to see him on the court in a 76ers uniform. That sets up a great opportunity for Maxey to put up big numbers, garner enough attention to be an All-Star, and be the subject of lots of “How the 76ers Got Better Without Harden” content. The only concern at this point is the uncertainty of the Philadelphia roster. Although Harden may not play, he may be traded for another player that could take shots from Maxey. Wait until the Harden situation works itself out and hope Maxey’s price gets up to +1800 or better.
Austin Reaves +1300
The young Laker was a key piece to their success last year, especially in the postseason. Austin Reaves was also a big contributor for the USA FIBA team and international success often leads to jumps in a player’s growth. Los Angeles should be one of the better teams in the league, and Reaves is slated to be a big part of their success. It could be tough for him to score 20 PPG, but if he can get close to that number and have some big moments in Lakers’ wins, he’ll be a top choice to win this award. I am a little concerned about how long it will take him to ramp up usage, and LA has a tough first month or so of the season. Wait until mid-November and grab some Reaves at +2000 or better.
Bets to Place
Scottie Barnes +2000
In his third NBA season, Scottie Barnes is slated to be the offensive hub for the Toronto Raptors. He will have the role of “point-forward” and responsible for scoring buckets and creating scoring opportunities for his teammates. He averaged 15 PPG, 6 RPG and 5 APG last year and could easily reach 20/8/8, which is are in the NBA. Toronto may struggle to adapt with a new coach and some new pieces, but it’s a talented roster that finally has some depth and could make the playoffs. If Barnes gets the usage expected and plays well enough to make the postseason, he will be a top choice for MIP. Let’s grab a nice price now.
Tyrese Haliburton +4000
He was among the favorites to win this award before getting hurt last year — when he returned, the Pacers were in tank mode. Tyrese Haliburton showed flashes of being able to be one of the best players in the NBA. All of Indiana’s key pieces returned, and they added Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin, who will fit perfectly. The Pacers are underrated in the market by my numbers, and similar to Barnes, Haliburton has the chance to be the best player leading an underrated team to the postseason. Perhaps he was “too good” last season to be able to improve enough, but at this price we have to bet Haliburton.
