Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Following William Byron’s victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, NASCAR makes the short excursion south to Arizona for the first of two races this season at Phoenix Raceway. Therefore, let’s wrap up action from the Pennzoil 400 this past Sunday, what happened at Phoenix in 2022, and expectations for this weekend’s United Rentals Work United 500.
Pennzoil 400 Wrap-Up
It was the William Byron show. Until it wasn’t. After quickly taking the lead from polesitter Joey Logano, Byron was a force to be reckoned with in clear air leading 176 laps on the day, including the final two when an Aric Almirola spin set up a green-white-checker situation.
Byron demonstrated in Saturday’s practice session that he had a fast car, including the fastest speeds in the five and 10 consecutive lap runs. While Joey Logano had shown fast short and long run speeds as well, all it took was Byron to get the lead and he was the immovable and unpassable object in clean air. However, once Byron lost that clean air advantage, following pit stops at the close of the second stage, he was fast but not the force he had been all day.
Despite getting shuffled in traffic to start the third stage, Larson stormed back and took the lead. He held a strong lead until what should have been the final round of pit stops, cycling through leads by Alex Bowman and Brad Keselowski, before reassuming the lead and holding a large lead over William Byron. However, as previously mentioned, Aric Almirola got loose in the corner and NASCAR quickly jumped on the opportunity to throw the caution flag with two laps remaining.
Martin Truex Jr. gambled on clean air and track position while everyone settled for two tires. The race was ultimately won on pit road as the 24 team got Byron out quicker and he was able to start alongside Truex, on the front row, with fresher tires. The new tires ended up being the advantage that Byron needed as he passed Truex with two laps remaining and Truex fell back to seventh by the end of the race.
The win gives Chevrolet three wins in three races and now the early West coast swing wraps up in Phoenix this weekend before NASCAR heads back out East to Atlanta, Georgia.
Phoenix, Spring — 2022
The first race in Phoenix was the first time the Generation Seven short track package would be on display. After races at Daytona, Auto Club, and Las Vegas there was no real clue as to what to expect at a mile-long track but perhaps the exhibition race at the Los Angeles Coliseum offered some clues despite the peculiarities of that quarter-mile venue.
One of the clues that should have been apparent was how tough it would be to move through the field, especially in overtaking the polesitter. Changes have been made, for 2023, to the rear diffuser that are supposed to decrease the likelihood of a driver sitting on the lead all afternoon. However, in 2022 that was exactly what we got. With the aid of clean air, the polesitter (or driver out front via pit stops, wrecks, etc.) had a solid wall of air to work with that made it tough for anyone to get around them. It was almost as if NASCAR watched the levels of mediocrity they gave fans in 2019 with the high downforce, high horsepower package and tried their best to replicate it.
While the racing may have been boring, it made life easy for DFS. You knew the polesitter was going to either lead the most or second-most laps and if the polesitter didn’t outright lead the bulk of laps that day, it was going to come from a fellow driver starting near the front. While the Generation Seven car had opened up the field at larger tracks to lead or win, the short track package had become a lackluster product and if a driver didn’t start in the top 10, they had an uphill battle all day to lead, much less win the event.
That all said, that’s what we got at Phoenix last Spring. Ryan Blaney started on the pole and sat on the lead until the lap 26 competition caution. The lead would change hands following this caution before Blaney wrangled it back. On the day, Blaney led the most laps (143) via the aid of starting position, clean air, the best pit stall (a definite advantage at this track), plus a car that showed plenty of long-run speed in practice.
However, the surprise of the day in the Ruoff Mortgage 500 was Chase Briscoe (starting sixth)- a driver who had made previous mention about how much he disliked Phoenix. Via a quick pit crew, Briscoe was able to ascend to the lead initially on lap 33 but he really came to life in the third stage leading from laps 230 to 287 and then the final 24 lap stretch of the race.
In the end, all but 50 laps were led by drivers that started in the top 10 and those 50 laps came from Chase Elliott (19) — a perennially strong runner at Phoenix.
Expectations for the 2023 United Rentals Work United 500
Everything for this Sunday begins and ends with what changes the adjusted rear diffuser will have on racing. If racing looks like it did last year, then lineup construction will be fairly straightforward — you’re probably rostering the pole sitter along with one or two other drivers that start near the front. However, if the shortened rear-diffuser makes a difference, then lineup construction could be a bit more open-ended like these past two weekends.
Friday, practice will be 50-minutes long with all cars on the track, thus there should be plenty of long-run data to analyze. However, figuring out the question of how different racing looks probably won’t be answered until Sunday. Thus, the safe bet may be to just assume that nothing is really going to change the conditions for clean air and the leader, and that while racing in the pack may get better, that invincible and invisible wall of dirty air, coming off the leader, will make it tough for drivers to get around whoever is out front.
