Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Following Kyle Larson’s victory at Martinsville, NASCAR leaves Virginia and heads to Alabama for 500 miles around the superspeedway in Talladega. Therefore, let’s wrap up action from this past Sunday’s NOCO 400, review numbers from last year at Talladega, and assess some expectations for this Sunday GEICO 500.
NOCO 400 Wrap-Up
Track position. Track position. Track position.
Following Martinsville, people began to get upset at NASCAR again about the supposed faults of the Generation Seven short track package and the lack of passing at Martinsville. However, the real problem that NASCAR may have isn’t with the package but with the track and the emphasis it places on track position.
When Ryan Preece was out front, he was untouchable. When he had to go to the tail of the lead lap, for speeding on pit road, he was just another driver stuck in traffic — much the same way Kevin Harvick was in the final green flag run after being forced to pit for a broken wheel.
With the shape, length and dimensions of Martinsville, this track has notoriously been tough to pass at and for anyone caught on the outside lane, it’s a death knell to their track position. The racing we witnessed Sunday isn’t anything new to Martinsville. However, the lack of horsepower, in the Generation Seven package, only puts a magnifying glass on this package and this track, especially when combined with a track that experiences as little tire fall-off as Martinsville currently has.
While Martinsville isn’t in any danger of losing either of its races, if NASCAR wants to silence the haters it needs to continue reducing downforce in this short-track package as improvements in horsepower probably aren’t on the horizon.
This all said, Martinsville is going to need an asterisk next to it thanks to the caution flag brought out by Anthony Alfredo. His caution caught the field in between pit cycles and allowed Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to all reap the rewards of the risk they took. Without that caution, Sunday’s results look different for them plus the drivers like Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott and Austin Dillon who were able to grab several spots with fresh tires.
Talladega Superspeedway
As stated above, NASCAR goes from three straight weeks of racing at tracks measuring 0.75 miles or shorter to the 2.66-mile-long superspeedway at Talladega. A return to a superspeedway means a return to the superspeedway package, which we’ve previously seen at Atlanta and Daytona this year. Thus, just like in those previous races, the field is a bit open in terms of expectations as anyone can land on the right side of variance and miss wrecks throughout the day just as easily as they could get caught up in a melee that had nothing to do with them.
This leveling of the field is due in part to the superspeedway package (reducing horsepower) as well as the draft; both factors working against any sort of advantage the more well-funded teams would have on typical weekends while elevating the mid-tier cars who would typically celebrate a top 10 finish. In last year’s fall race at Talladega, the top 10 featured mid-tier and backmarkers like Michael McDowell (3), Erik Jones (6), Todd Gilliland (7) while the spring had Erik Jones (6) and Michael McDowell (8) grace the top 10 again.
Expectations for the GEICO 500
As per real-life NASCAR, this is a race where anyone can wreck out thanks to that pesky draft. Anyone, at any time, can get loose and collide with someone around them and collect a slew of drivers in the aftermath. However, just because anyone can finish anywhere, it doesn’t mean it’s an absolute free-for-all. While the top and mid-tier teams will all be on our radar, and the sportsbook odds will reflect this as nearly half the field will show up with odds of 20/1 or shorter, the backmarkers tend to just ride around and take what they can get — especially in the Fall playoff races. For example, in this event last year, the highest any backmarker car finished was Landon Cassill in 19th while David Ragan finished in 24th, JJ Yeley in 25th, BJ McLeod in 26th and Cody Ware in 28th. In this scenario, these drivers would all make suitable cash plays but because they fail to finish in the top 15, they miss the cut as a high-upside tournament option.
With this in mind, the phrase that you’re bound to hear ad nauseum is “stack the back” and if we’ve learned anything this season, it’s never that simple. For example, in the 2022 GEICO 500 there were four drivers in the optimal DraftKings lineup that started in the teens while the fall iteration had three drivers that started sixth through 19th. Unless you anticipate absolute chaos (i.e., Daytona Summer 2022), you can’t just build with place differential in mind, save for cash games. The nuance to superspeedway races, that most people fail to recognize, is that top 10 finishes are essential, and if a driver can’t grab that finish, then they need a top-15 paired with place differential of 15 spots or more. With just 188 laps on deck for Sunday, and the chance that the drivers who lead could wreck out at any moment, finishing position points are going to be the main way that drivers accrue points.
