Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Following Ryan Blaney’s victory at Charlotte, NASCAR journeys to Illinois for the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway. Therefore, let’s wrap up action from this past weekend’s Coca-Cola 600, review numbers from last year at WWTR, and assess some expectations for Sunday afternoon in Madison, Ill.
Coca-Cola 600 Wrap Up
It only made sense that on a weekend with no practice, and a race delayed until Monday, that the manufacturer who had struggled at intermediate tracks all season, would show up and dominate the Coca-Cola 600. Once the green flag waved, it was apparent that Monday afternoon’s race was a two-horse show — Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell. Bell would remove himself from the equation via some contact and a pit road penalty and leave Ryan Blaney to dominate for the rest of the event.
What was also apparent was that Chevrolet had nothing for Toyota or Ford — all evening. William Byron’s pit crew consistently gave him the lead, following pit stops, but Byron would lose the lead on the restart every time. Race favorite Kyle Larson raced his way to the front but could never catch Blaney or Tyler Reddick, who spent the bulk of the evening trying to chase Blaney down himself. With the win, Blaney has locked himself into the playoffs — something we’ll begin digging into deeper once July hits as the regular season comes to a close.
Besides running nearly six hours in total length (breaks for the rain included) this race will be remembered more for the wreck between Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin — a wreck oddly reminiscent of the collision between Bubba Wallace and Kyle Larson at Kansas Speedway during last season’s playoffs. Following the wreck, Hamlin quickly made his way home and pulled up the SMT data for everyone to see what appears to be a blatant turn into Hamlin’s rear quarter that sent him spinning dangerously into the wall.
The precedent has been set that NASCAR takes all wrecks like this with impartial judgment. However, suspending the league’s most popular driver may be a bridge too far for NASCAR, especially as the buck can be passed down to Brad Keselowski who appears to have made contact with Elliott, potentially causing the wreck between Elliott and Hamlin.
World Wide Technology Raceway
WWTR, or Gateway, is a 1.25-mile asphalt oval with wider turns in one and two then turns three and four giving the track the odd shape of a manipulated paper clip. With minimal banking in these turns (11 degrees in one and two, nine degrees in three and four) this track has a North Wilkesboro feel to it, save for the age of the racing surface. That said, the venue opened in 1996 and that may be the last time this track saw fresh pavement as records are skimp on this info.
For years, Gateway was seen primarily as too small to host a Cup Series race. The Xfinity Series had previously raced at Gateway in the late 90s and early 00s while the Trucks Series was currently visiting this venue. However, in NASCAR’s latest bid to reignite the fan base by including more short tracks on the schedule, the Cup Series made Gateway the pit stop in between the Coca-Cola 600 and its annual pilgrimage to wine country out in Sonoma — a stop that continues this year.
Expectations for the Enjoy Illinois 300
For the bulk of the younger crowd, WWTR was a track that plenty of them had experienced while racing in the Trucks Series, including drivers like Justin Haley, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace who all had victories here. Some of the aged veterans like Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr.; too had won at Gateway but those victories came when they were in their 20s as full-time drivers in the then Nationwide Series. Regardless, plenty of the Cup regulars had seen this venue last season, however, having raced on a track years ago in a different style race car (or Truck) versus knowing what to do with a Generation Seven car would end up being two birds of a different feather.
As you would imagine, the 2022 Enjoy Illinois 300 was filled with caution flags — a total of 10 that Sunday accounting for just under 22% of the total laps rendering the average green flag run to just 17.5 laps. Furthermore, it isn’t as if one area of the track was becoming an issue for the drivers. Both sets of turns as well as the backstretch and frontstretch became the scene of spins and wrecks.
This plethora of caution flags set the stage for several passes for the lead along with nine different drivers leading that Sunday. No one, per se, really ran away with the race but the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates of Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. combined to lead 108 of that day’s 245 laps. The aforementioned Busch was on his way to victory after taking the lead from Joey Logano with 18 laps remaining. However, Kevin Harvick had a single-car wreck on lap 237 that bunched the field back up and set the stage for a two-lap shootout. On that restart, Logano grabbed the lead back from Busch and went on to win.
This year’s rendition is setting up to play out with similar conditions as the early forecast is pegging temperatures out in the high 80s. Thus, don’t be shocked if the experience doesn’t make up for the slick track that drivers should have to face on Sunday. The wildcard in this prognostication is that drivers won’t be using the short track package, like last season, so expectations for drivers will have to be based upon performance at intermediate tracks like Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte or at other high tire-wear venues like Darlington and Dover, which are more similar in length, but Gateway lacks the subsequent banking those venues have.
Thankfully, everything looks good for practice as that should be our biggest clue as to who Sunday’s top performers should be. In Saturday’s practice session, for last year’s race, it was Joey Logano who demonstrated the fastest car — whether in the short or long run while Kyle Busch demonstrated a car that got better the longer into a run the race went.
