NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Following Martin Truex Jr.’s victory at Dover, NASCAR leaves the rain in Delaware and heads to the heartland for 400 miles around Kansas Speedway. Let’s wrap up action from this past Sunday’s Wurth 400, review numbers from last year at Kansas, and assess some expectations for the Advent Health 400.
Wurth 400 Wrap-Up
Once the rain finally went away, and the sun came out, fans were treated to a spectacle as Martin Truex Jr. snapped a winless streak of more than 50 races and locked himself into the playoffs. The highlight of the race, initially, was the string of cautions that occurred between the competition caution on lap 22 and the end of the first stage on lap 122. Three different times, the race was flown under the yellow flag during that first stage, including a peculiar wreck between Ross Chastain and Brennan Poole, that seemingly left Chastain unscathed (as he would go on to lead 98 laps and finished second) and took out Kyle Larson in the process of Poole careening into the wall. Larson would end his day in 32nd after spending multiple laps behind the wall fixing his right front damage and turning laps for the remainder of the afternoon.
While all expectations were on Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson to lead the bulk of the race, it was fellow HMS driver William Byron leading the most laps Monday (193), although most of his time atop the field was during the first and second stages. This performance is just another feather in his 2023 hat showing that Byron is more than just a short-track driver.
As per what this race means in regards to Darlington or Nashville, or even Bristol in the Fall, it’s probably minimal at best as this race was impacted by the weather. We really need to see a practice and qualifying session that will mimic race conditions as close as possible, and unfortunately, that is not what was delivered this past weekend in the Wurth 400.
Kansas Motor Speedway
As stated above, NASCAR goes from the steeply banked mile-long oval in Delaware to the 1.5-mile cookie-cutter venue at Kansas Speedway. What, a decade ago, had become one of several sister tracks on the calendar (Kentucky, Chicagoland, Texas, Charlotte, old Atlanta, Homestead, Las Vegas) has now become a remnant as several of those tracks have lost their races (Kentucky), been sold and slated for demolition (Chicagoland), or changed altogether (Atlanta).
Opened in 2001, and repaved in 2011, nothing really stands out about Kansas Speedway. It’s not a tire-wear venue as you would associate with Homestead or Las Vegas, but it’s also not a single-groove lap turner like Texas. With its shape and pavement age, it’s really the perfect summation of what an intermediate track should be; a venue that should be won by the best driver in the best car and not the driver who gets out front early or the one who doesn’t abuse his tires early.
Last season’s iteration of this race, held a weekend later than this year, would end up being the last time we saw Kurt Busch grace Victory Circle as he won his last Cup Series race, leading 116 laps in the process. For much of the swan song of Kurt Busch’s career, he always managed to pull a random-annual dominating performance out of his bag of tricks, as he had at least one victory every season dating back to 2014 in his age 35 year. For 2022, the Advent Health 400 ended up being that race for Busch, and inevitably/potentially his last win in NASCAR ever.
As per Kurt Busch and his car that weekend, it probably shouldn’t have been that big of a shock. In Saturday’s practice session, Busch ran the fastest single lap in practice, followed by the second-fastest consecutive five-lap average. That said, it wouldn’t be until lap 113 before Kurt Busch finally ascended to the lead, grabbing it from William Byron after he led the first 25 laps post the second stage starting.
The end of the race was highlighted by lead swaps between Kurt Busch and Kyle Larson, aided by a lap 197 caution for Chase Elliott and a caution on lap 230 for fluid on the track (Kevin Harvick). During the final caution, Kyle Busch grabbed the lead off pit road but lost it after three laps to Kyle Larson. However, with nine laps remaining, Kurt Busch would reel in Larson and pass him for good after Larson made slight contact with the wall.
Expectations for the Advent Health 400
The eyes of NASCAR, betting and DFS, will all be on Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace this weekend considering just how well 23XI ran at this track last season sweeping both Cup events. However, it’s Kyle Larson that should be at the top of the betting board once again considering his average running position of 2.8 at Kansas, with 10% of the race remaining, since joining Hendrick Motor Sports. Although he only has one win to show for his past four races, he’s been in position to win every single one of those races. To be determined is if he gets struck by bad luck again, hoping to avoid a fourth-straight week of getting wrecked out.
Unfortunately, rain is in the forecast again this Sunday, as Weather Underground is projecting scattered thunderstorms for the entire day. Should the rain find its way out of the forecast, this will hopefully be a mundane, 267-lap race in contrast to the past month of variance that we’ve been given with Bristol-Dirt, Talladega, and last Sunday/Monday at Dover.
