Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We finally get to our Cup Series race of the week in good ol’ Kentucky with the Quaker State 400. Given there is still no practice, I’m relying a ton on track history, recent speeds since the restart, the drivers who are on good streaks, and place differential.
To start out, I highly recommend you read Jeff Ratcliffe’s article on the advanced stats roadmap for this race. My DFS plan for this race is to focus on the drivers with the highest exposure in my 15 lineups. We will focus on a similar strategy for this race as the XFIN race. If you haven’t done so, please take a look into the “how to build” NASCAR Building 101 piece. We also have our projections in our FTN NASCAR Optimizer.
Martin Truex
Besides being a total dominator at this track, Truex is also one of the top drivers in green flag speed since the restart. He’s gone a few races where he’s underperformed including being involved in that pit wreck last week. He will be my top driver this slate. As I mention, I tend to factor in track history more since the restart because of no practice. He has top 15 finishes in three of his last four races here, including multiple wins.
Kyle Busch
Busch has been terrible since the restart, but he’s starting on the pole this race. Kentucky is one of his best tracks, including multiple wins at the track. He dominates time and time again at this track and should dominate a good chunk of this race. Given he has four straight top-15 finishes at the track, including three straight top-five finishes, he will be locked in a ton of my lineups.
Brad Keselowski/Denny Hamlin
I’ll have one of these two drivers in most lineups given their track history. Hamlin struggles a little in Kentucky, but you can’t ignore his recent green flag speed. Keselowski is just an absolute beast here so I love the price tag and starting position. The price tag is a big much for me for Hamlin, but he could be a great leverage play.
Jimmie Johnson
After a few negative tests for COVID-19 and his race streak ending, I love Johnson for Sunday. He’s starting 20 with top-10 green flag speed and a great car. He will be out there with a vengeance and I love the point differential points he will get. If he finishes top-10 then he will be even more optimal.
Favorite value plays: Erik Jones, Kurt Busch, Cole Custer, Ryan Preece, Michael McDowell
(Note: I’ll be out of town this weekend, so I’ve locked my lineups in already as new entries of DFS aren’t allowed in the state I’ll be in. These drivers listed above will be the highest-exposure guys in my 15 lineups. I’ll also have some one-off drivers in lineups like Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick, Daniel Suarez, etc.)
