Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The weekend, the NASCAR Cup series heads to the Daytona for the GoBowling 235. But we aren’t on the main track for this race. This race will be run on the roval course that is partially on the main track and partially on the road course in the infield For projections purposes, I also use the roval at Charlotte along with the road courses at Watkins Glen and Sonoma for a larger sample size. You can check these NASCAR DFS projections out in our NASCAR DFS Optimizer.
Of course, the research process is more than just running some numbers in an optimizer. To really help us pinpoint drivers, we need to incorporate some other stats. Two metrics I love to use to identify players for my builds are driver rating and percentage of laps in the top-15. However, simply calculating an average for these stats doesn’t necessarily give us an accurate view of what to expect. Like any athlete, drivers can trend up or down over time. To account for trends, I weight both metrics with the most recent races getting the highest weighting.
So let’s take a look at the weighted driver ratings and top-15 percentages for all of the road course races over the last five NASCAR seasons.
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Dominators
Martin Truex ($10,100) has been one of the best road course drivers over the last five years. He has three wins, five top-two finishes, and has only finished outside the top 10 twice over the last 10 NASCAR road races. He doesn’t offer anything in the way of place differential potential, but Truex could lead a good chunk of this race. He’s the best play on the board.
The only other driver to win multiple races on road courses over the last five seasons is Chase Elliott ($10,300). Perhaps more importantly, one of his wins came on the Charlotte Roval, which is the most similar tract to Sunday’s race. Elliott isn’t cheap, but he’s a rock-solid dominator option.
Kevin Harvick ($9,600) isn’t as expensive as Truex or Elliott, but he’s no slouch on road courses. Over his last 10 races on road courses, he has the second-highest weighted driver rating and has eight top-10 finishes. Harvick starts on the pole and should rack up some early dominator points. Denny Hamlin ($9,400) also comes in at a slight discount. While he does have a road course win under his belt over the last five seasons – he won at Watkins Glen in 2016 – Hamlin didn’t the crack the top 10 at the last two Charlotte Roval races. To be fair, he started back in the pack in each, but I wouldn’t recommend going heavy on Hamlin.
Place differential plays
The two most expensive drivers on the slate are also the biggest place differential plays of the day. Ryan Blaney ($11,000) starts 24th on the grid and has six top-10 finishes on road courses over the last five seasons. Brad Keselowski ($10,600) hasn’t been quite as successful as Blaney but he did finish fifth in the last Charlotte Roval race. He has plenty of place differential potential starting 17th.
Given their massive salaries, it’s going to be tough to jam both in your lineups and get a dominator in their as well. So it may be wise to pick and choose your battles here. The good news is that you can save some money and pivot to Alex Bowman ($8,200). Bowman has finished 14th or better in all six of his Cup Series road course races with three top-10s.
Value plays
This isn’t the best race for value purposes, and I wouldn’t recommend any of the drivers starting outside of the top-30 on the grid. However, starting at 30 is Michael McDowell ($7,000). He isn’t cheap, but his price point will give you some wiggle room. McDowell has top-20 finishes in seven of his last 10 road course races.
Other drivers worth exposure
The drivers listed above form my core, but I’m also going to have some light exposure to the following:
Kyle Busch ($9,800) – he’s risky in 2020, but Busch has historically run very well on road courses
Clint Bowyer ($8,800) – top-five on both Charlotte Roval races
William Byron ($8,600) – finished sixth in the 2019 Charlotte Roval
Kurt Busch ($8,400) – seven top-10s in his last 10 road course races
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800) – top-12 in all three 2019 road course races and has better equipment in 2020
Cole Custer ($7,600) – risky, but drove well on road courses in the Xfinity Series
Tyler Reddick ($7,400) – same as Custer
Christopher Bell (7,200) – same as Reddick and Custer
Chris Buescher ($6,600) – he’s cheap and has top-20s in eight of his last 10 road course races
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,500) – always volatile, but Stenhouse finished 17th at the last Charlotte Roval
Ryan Preece ($5,100) – finished 21st at the last Charlotte Roval
Fades
Joey Logano ($9,200) – road course aren’t Logano’s strong suit
Erik Jones ($9,000) – has had success at Watkins Glen, but struggled on the Charlotte Roval
Jimmie Johnson ($8,100) – decent on the Charlotte Roval, but starts too high for my liking
Aric Almirola ($7,900) – having a good 2020 season, but only two top-10s in the last 10 road course races
Brendan Gaughn ($7,500) – not at this price point
Daniel Suarez ($6,900) – not in 2020
Matt Kenseth ($6,700) – he still looks rusty and is a fade even at this price
John Hunter Nemechek ($6,400)
Ryan Newman ($6,300)
Bubba Wallace ($6,100)
Kaz Grala ($6,00)
Corey LaJoie ($5,900)
Ty Dillon ($5,800)
J.J. Yeley ($5,600)
Brennan Poole ($5,500)
Reed Sorenson ($5,400)
James Davison ($5,200)
Timmy Hill ($4,900)
Garrett Smithley ($4,700)
Quin Houff ($4,600)
