NASCAR DFS Advanced Stats Roadmap: Consumers Energy 400

This weekend, the NASCAR Cup series heads to Michigan for the Consumers Energy 400. Michigan is a two-mile intermediate track, and we just had a race here Saturday. For projections purposes, I also use Kansas and Auto Club as the most similar tracks along with Chicagoland and Kentucky for a larger sample size. You can check these NASCAR DFS projections out in our NASCAR DFS Optimizer.

Of course, the research process is more than just running some numbers in an optimizer. To really help us pinpoint drivers, we need to incorporate some other stats. Two metrics I love to use to identify players for my builds are driver rating and percentage of laps in the top-15. However, simply calculating an average for these stats doesn’t necessarily give us an accurate view of what to expect. Like any athlete, drivers can trend up or down over time. To account for trends, I weight both metrics with the most recent races getting the highest weighting.

So let’s take a look at the weighted driver ratings and top-15 percentages for both the Michigan races and all races on Michigan and similar tracks over the last five NASCAR seasons.

(Want in on everything FTN has to offer? Sign up now!)

Dominators

Kevin Harvick ($11,500) is on fire at Michigan, winning three of the last four races here including Saturday’s trip to victory lane. Because of that win, he’ll start 20th on the grid, which means the potential for some major place differential points. He’s the most expensive drive on the slate, but Harvick is worth paying up for on Sunday.

Brad Keselowski ($10,500) couldn’t quite catch Harvick at the end of Saturday’s race, but he had a fast car yet again. Like Harvick, Keselowski starts back in the pack at 19. He’s a strong candidate to win here and offers a ton of place differential value.

We also saw an impressive drive from Martin Truex Jr. ($10,800) Saturday. He battled back after getting down a lap early in the race and managed a third-place finish. Truex starts 18th on the grid and is in play as a potential race winner.

In addition to these three drivers, it’s also worth using Ryan Blaney ($9,900) and Denny Hamlin ($11,100) as dominators in your builds. Kyle Busch ($9,400) and Joey Logano ($10,200) are volatile plays, but both showed well yesterday and are worth some exposure.

Place differential plays

In addition to all of the big dominator names, you also have the potential from some place differential from Cole Custer ($7,500). He’ll be in a backup car after wrecking Saturday, but his 34th-place starting spot on the grid is appealing.

Value plays

We had a $1,000 salary drop from Saturday’s race for Austin Dillon ($6,500). He starts 31st and is one of the best values on the board. John Hunter Nemechek ($6,400) has been hit or miss this season, but it’s tough to ignore a cheap option who starts 36th. Michael McDowell ($6,200) has slid back into the value tier and starts 29th. Ty Dillon ($5,700) doesn’t have as much place differential potential, but he ran well Saturday and is cheap. The same can be said for Corey LaJoie ($5,100) and Ryan Preece ($5,600).

Other drivers worth exposure

The drivers listed above form my core, but I’m also going to have some light exposure to the following:

Chase Elliott ($9,600) – eight top 10s in his last nine races here
Jimmie Johnson ($8,200) – was in the mix Saturday and should run in the top 10
Erik Jones ($8,000) – he starts 10th and is in the mix as a dark horse to win the race
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,300) – always a risk, but has upside
Bubba Wallace ($6,100) – posted a top-10 finish Saturday, but will be chalky at this price
Josh Billicki ($4,700) – starts last and is dirt-cheap