Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This weekend, the NASCAR Cup series heads to Michigan for the Consumers Energy 400. Michigan is a two-mile intermediate track, and we just had a race here Saturday. For projections purposes, I also use Kansas and Auto Club as the most similar tracks along with Chicagoland and Kentucky for a larger sample size.
Of course, the betting research process is more than just simply looking at past finishes. To really help us pinpoint drivers, we need to incorporate some other stats. Two metrics I love to use to identify players for my builds are driver rating and percentage of laps in the top-15. However, simply calculating an average for these stats doesn’t necessarily give us an accurate view of what to expect. Like any athlete, drivers can trend up or down over time. To account for trends, I weight both metrics with the most recent races getting the highest weighting.
So let’s take a look at the weighted driver ratings and top-15 percentages for both the Michigan races and all races on Michigan and similar tracks over the last five NASCAR seasons.
Check out our NASCAR betting picks from the entire FTNBets NASCAR team!
Kevin Harvick ($11,500) is on fire at Michigan, winning three of the last four races here including Saturday’s trip to victory lane. FoxBet currently has an appealing bet boost on Harvick to win at +300.
We also saw an impressive drive from Martin Truex Jr. Saturday. He battled back after getting down a lap early in the race and managed a third-place finish. Truex is +900 to win on Fanduel. If you prefer to do head-to-head props, Truex is -140 to finish ahead of Joey Logano at William Hill.
There’s also plenty of head-to-head props over at DraftKings. One that I really like today is Kurt Busch at -115 to finish ahead of Aric Almirola.
