NFL Week 5 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
NASCAR is in Las Vegas this weekend for the Pennzoil 400. It’s a 267-lap race on a steep track that can be compared to the race in Homestead. I use the data from previous years in Las Vegas and Homestead to go through my core DFS plays for this race.
We have a 3:47 p.m. ET start time for the fourth NASCAR Cup Series race of the 2021 season. It’s a 38-car field that will bring a lot of attention to first timers to NASCAR, as it’s the fourth race and people want to get in on the action. This is the other big edge of the NASCAR season, as everyone will want to use all of their salary for every lineup.
The edge and key to this race is to focus on the higher-upside guys, who will get a ton of points via place differential—extra scoring for improving upon your starting position. I will run about 50-100 lineups in the big GPP with 5-10 main handbuilt lineups.
My research is focusing on a few key factors here:
- Place differential upside
- Dominator points — Fastest laps/laps led (I want minimum of two, max of three)
- Previous five races at Las Vegas
- Equipment
- Starting position
Drivers I will be eliminating from my player pool and have 0-10% exposure to:
- Michael McDowell (and any driver cheaper than him) — Full fade
- Ryan Newman — Full fade
- Kurt Busch — Max ownership at 7%
- Brad Keselowski — Max ownership at 10%
- Tyler Reddick — Max ownership at 10%
- Joey Gase — Max ownership at 7%
- BJ McLeod — Max ownership at 5%
- Corey LaJoie — Max ownership at 10%
- Christopher Bell — Max ownership at 10%
- Joey Logano — Max ownership at 10%
- Ryan Preece — Max ownership at 5%
- Anthony Alfredo — Max ownership at 10%
I’m taking a stand on a few drivers because of starting position and history at Las Vegas. Drivers like Kurt Busch, Keselowski and Logano need dominator points at their price. I don’t see a ton of fastest laps or laps led from these three drivers, so I won’t go over 10% ownership on any of the three (they’re too good for a full fade). Newman, Bell and Reddick are starting too close to the front for me to love them this week. Bell and Reddick aren’t the worst at speed tracks, but we need them to finish top 10 and I don’t see it this week.
Drivers I will have 10%-20% of ownership of:
- Kyle Busch — Max at 15%
- Martin Truex Jr. — Max at 15%
- Cole Custer — Max at 20%
- Daniel Suarez — Max at 15%
- Erik Jones — Max at 15%
- Matthew DiBenedetto — Max at 20%
- Aric Almirola — Max at 20%
- William Byron — Max at 15%
- Kevin Harvick — Max at 20%
- Kyle Larson — Max at 20%
- Chase Briscoe — Max at 20%
People may call me crazy for capping some of the top drivers in the world at 20%. Kyle Busch, Truex, Harvick and Larson are four of the best, but I want low minimal exposure this weekend. Busch and Truex are the two most expensive drivers on DraftKings and have struggled in the last two races here (last year). I don’t see a ton of dominator points and I don’t see enough fastest laps to make up for the lack of laps led. Harvick, Larson and Byron shouldn’t be played together in a lineup. One of the three should lead a good chunk of the race, but given they are starting in the front, we need dominator points and a top-three or top-five finish to be optimal. Harvick or Larson are my preferred options here, but Harvick will come with massive chalk. It’s chalk I’ll eat in a few main lineups, but it isn’t my core or favorite play. Larson has multiple top-five finishes in his career here, but he’s just getting back into things after a long layoff. Almirola, DiBenedetto and Custer will be massive chalk, and I prefer different routes. DiBenedetto is very expensive on DraftKings and needs a top-five or top-10 finish to come close to optimal. He has the car to do it, but it’s chalk that worried me and I will have less exposure. I’m taking stands this weekend and my stands are avoiding some of the cheaper chalk. Briscoe, Suarez and Jones have some opportunities to get us points with place differential, but I prefer some others in this range.
The rest of the drivers will be some of my favorites. I will be overweight on all these drivers. I listed them in order of most to least favorite.
- Ryan Blaney — I absolutely love him. This is one of the chalky drives I do want. With three top-fives in three of his last five races and starting way in the back, I expect a top-five finish and the highest upside on the slate. Eat the chalk.
- Chase Elliott — Top three in green flag speed in the two races last year in Vegas. One of the best drivers and fastest cars in the field. He will be a dominator I want in this spot.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. — Sneaky. Very good at steep tracks, especially Vegas. I absolutely love him in this spot. He’s not starting too far up front and has top-five upside.
- Chris Buescher — Surprisingly fast car to start the season. We like the speed, and we love the upside for a top-10 finish here.
- Denny Hamlin — Sneaky dominator. Steep tracks are among his best. Love him in this spot as my third-favorite dominator.
- Austin Dillon — Pivot off the chalky guys listed above. Crushes steep tracks. Will be low owned.
- Ross Chastain — Potential to move up 10 spots in this race given how fast his car looks this season.
- Alex Bowman — Very good at steep tracks, especially in Vegas. Top-five potential and one of my favorite bets this weekend. Sneaky guy to win this race.
- Bubba Wallace — He has the money behind him to crush, but we have yet to see him do it. It’s a matter of time before we get a top-10 finish.
