Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The weekend, the NASCAR Cup series heads to the Magic Mile in New Hampshire for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. New Hampshire is a one-mile flat track. For NASCAR betting purposes, I also use Richmond and Phoenix as the most similar tracks along with Martinsville for a larger sample size.
Of course, the betting research process is more than just simply looking at past finishes. To really help us pinpoint drivers, we need to incorporate some other stats. Two metrics I love to use to identify players for my builds are driver rating and percentage of laps in the top-15. However, simply calculating an average for these stats doesn’t necessarily give us an accurate view of what to expect. Like any athlete, drivers can trend up or down over time. To account for trends, I weight both metrics with the most recent races getting the highest weighting.
So let’s take a look at the weighted driver ratings and top-15 percentages for both the New Hampshire races and all races on New Hampshire and similar tracks over the last five NASCAR seasons.
Check out our NASCAR betting picks from the entire FTNBets NASCAR team!
Kyle Busch hasn’t been himself this season, but he’s been very good on this track type over the last five years. In his last 23 races at New Hampshire, Phoenix, and Richmond, Busch has finished outside of the top-10 just twice. He also has seven wins across New Hampshire and the sim tracks over that span. Despite his recent form, Busch is worth a look to win the race. He’s currently +850 to win on FanDuel.
The only driver to win multiple races here over the last five seasons is Kevin Harvick. Harvick has three wins, including both of the last two races here, and has five total on New Hampshire and the sim tracks. Like Busch, he’s also finished top-10 in 21 of the last 23 races at New Hampshire, Phoenix, and Richmond. Unlike Busch, Harvick doesn’t offer quite as good of a price at +500 on FanDuel.
Martin Truex Jr. has four wins across the sim tracks over the last five years, but hasn’t won at New Hampshire during that span. Truex does have a top-7 finish in each of his last five races here and is viable candidate to win. Truex offers some appealing value on FanDuel at +850.
Ryan Blaney has been extremely fast this year. He has top-10s in each of his last three races at New Hampshire. FoxBet currently has the best price on Blaney at +1200.
Like Blaney, Aric Almirola has also been very fast recently. He starts from the pole and is a slightly longer shot. Almirola’s best price to win is currently +2000 at William Hill.
Matt DiBenedetto isn’t in play for the win, but his car has been fast this season and he finished fifth here last year. DiBenedetto is currently +150 to finish top 10 at DraftKings.
