UFC Vegas 85 MMA Betting Odds (2/3)

Get ready for an action-packed event Saturday as the UFC returns to the Apex after the year’s first PPV. The event is headlined by Roman Dolidze and Nasourdine Imavov, two fighters looking to make their mark in the UFC. Imavov aims to break into the top 10 and bounce back into the win column after his loss to Sean Strickland, while Dolidze is seeking redemption after his loss to Martin Vetorri last year.

The co-main event promises an electrifying matchup between Drew Dober and Renato Moicano, two fighters known for their finishing skills. Randy Brown will also be featured on the main card as he takes on the “King of Kung Fu,” Muslim Salikhov. Brown is currently ranked in the top 15 and is looking to extend his win streak, while Salikhov is out for redemption after a surprising loss last year. The preliminary bouts are no less exciting, with Charles Johnson facing off against Azat Maksum and Pete Rodriguez taking on the devastating power of Themba Gorimbo.

With 13 fights, this event will surely be a treat for MMA fans. Below, I’ve broken down my favorite fights and have given you guys a best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.

Dolidze vs. Imavov Odds

Roman Dolidze +140, Nasourdine Imavov -170

Dolidze and Imavov are the main event on fight night, and they both want to make a statement. Dolidze has been steadily climbing the ranks and has finished fighters like Jack Hermansson, Phil Hawes and Kyle Daukus. Although primarily known for his wrestling skills, Dolidze doesn’t shy away from an excellent stand-and-bang fight. It’s worth noting that for being such a great grappler, over 57% of his wins have been by knockout. Imavov is looking for redemption after a loss to former champ Sean Strickland ended a three-fight win streak last year. As frustrating as that sounds, Imavov is still ranked and, with an impressive win this weekend, can put himself in the top five and closer to the belt. The tale of the tape shows that both fighters are similar in height and reach. Dolidze holds the one-inch advantage in reach, and Imavov has the one-inch height advantage. They also share similar striking numbers as Imavov averages 4.55 significant strikes and Dolidze 3.02. They also absorb the same number of significant strikes, with an average of 3.50 significant strikes absorbed. Another interesting fact is that both athletes can wrestle and average 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. Imavov has not won in the UFC by submission but has utilized his wrestling skills defensively and occasionally finds himself on top after a scramble.

Imavov is well-rounded and technically sound. On the feet, he’s better than Dolidze when they strike. Where I think Imavov can run into trouble is having to deal with Dolidze pressure. Imavov didn’t do well against the pressure from Sean Strickland, and while he has never been knocked out, it doesn’t take many shots from Dolidze to go to sleep. So, utilizing spacing will be critical for Imavov to have success. If he doesn’t keep the fight at a striking distance, he can end up against the cage or on his back. Dolidze has more advantages in this fight with Power in his hands, strength to win the wrestling exchanges, and the durability to take Imavov’s best strikes and continue to pressure forward. The best bet in this fight is not on either side but instead for this fight to complete three full rounds. Dolidze averages nearly three rounds of fight time, and Imavov nearly four. Imavov and Dolidze have also never been finished in the UFC. 

Best Bet: Imavov/Dolidze fight to complete three rounds -125 

Moicano vs. Dober Odds

Renato Moicano -185, Drew Dober +155

Dober and Moicano are in the co-main event spot and could be the headliners on any card worldwide. These athletes are lethal finishers with the skillsets to end a fight at any given moment. Dober is a knockout artist with an iron chin. With nearly 40 professional fights under his belt, he’s looking to display a well-rounded approach this weekend against the grappling ace Moicano. Since moving up a weight class, Moicano has revived his career and has shown a different side to his game, specifically with his striking, which blends well with his dangerous jiujitsu. Moicano is 3-2 in his last five fights; his previous outing nearly two years ago was by far the best he’s looked in the striking department. He did eat a couple of power shots from Brad Riddell but displayed good durability and eventually landed his fight-ending strikes, which led to his lethal rear-naked choke. Perhaps the time away from the cage could be a problem but not too critical because it’s only a three-round fight, and both fighters average nearly two rounds of fight time. Not to mention that both fighters have been quoted saying they will be patient in looking for the finish.

Dober said he wants to return to his old self and display some of his Jiujitsu that some may have forgotten about because of his propensity to hunt for the knockout. Both fighters average nearly five significant strikes landed per minute. They also absorb the same number of significant strikes, so the durability of each athlete will be tested. Moicano has been knocked out three times in his career and Dober twice. It’ll be interesting to see if Dober can stop the takedowns because if he can, it could be a long night for Moicano. Even though Moicano showed massive Gains in his striking last time out, it was against an already mentally checked-out Brad Ridell, and it happened two years ago.

I’m sure he has improved in some areas, but he’s still at a disadvantage regarding the power between fighters. It’ll be interesting to see what approach Moicano takes in this fight. On one hand, if he can successfully take Dober down, he can grind out a win. Yet if he isn’t able to outstrike Dober or take him down, then he could end up on the wrong side of the scorecards. From a betting perspective, the value is with Dober as a slight underdog. He is durable and has the power advantage, and Moicano is fighting his first fight in nearly two years. My best bet for this bout is a round prop, and I like this fight to go over 1.5 rounds; I like it because both fighters average over seven minutes of fight time, and I also expect a finish to happen late in the fight, considering both fighters are Durable enough to survive the early rounds and carry enough power to find a finish in deep waters. 

Best Bet: Moicano/Dober over 1.5 rounds -105

Brown vs. Salikhov Odds

Randy Brown -260, Muslim Salikhov +210

Brown has been the picture of consistency during his run toward the top. It wasn’t until he ran into Jack Della Maddalena that he was brought back down to earth. Della Maddalena was able to hurt Brown and immediately finish him within one round. Not many fighters can say they’ve done that to Randy Brown. Brown bounced back with a win over Wellington Turman and now looks to continue a new winning streak against the aging but still dangerous Muslim Salikhov. Salikhov says that even though he turns forty soon, the fire is still burning, and he hasn’t considered retirement yet. “The King of Kung Fu” can still bang. And if anything is beginning to crack, I’d say it’s his durability. Salikhov has been stopped once and then lost to Nicholas Dalby, which to me was very surprising and maybe telling of his age. His style is not what you expect, considering he’s from Dagestan, and rather than wrestle, he looks to get the job done with his striking. He can still wrestle, as grappling is in the blood of a Dagestani, but Salikhov is known more for his spinning kicks than his double-leg takedown.

This fight is about space management, and Brown making Salikhov wrestle. Brown is a magnificent striker but also has had durability issues. He also tends to dip his head to the side when defending strikes, which can lead to devastating head kicks. For that reason, hell has to pressure Salikhov enough to get him out of his comfort zone and wrestle more often than not. That isn’t to say that Salikhov maybe wants to wrestle a bit more, but if I’m Randy, I want to eliminate Salikhov’s best weapon, which is his kicks. Randy has a massive reach advantage in this fight and is taller by a couple of inches. It doesn’t take reach, though, to land a kick; I like this fight to go the distance. Both fighters are outstanding strikers and, regardless of previous durability issues, have proven to be hard to finish. From a betting perspective, I will pick Randy Brown to stifle the wrestling attack of Salikhov while maintaining an effective striking distance utilizing his jab and teep kicks to cruise to the finish line. 

Best Bet: Brown/Salikhov fight goes the distance -130 

Khizriev vs. Muradov Odds 

Aliaskhab Khizriev -155, Makhmud Muradov +130

A fun scrap is on the horizon when Muradov and Khizriev clash in the octagon Saturday night. Khizriev has been called the next Khabib by many, and so far, the Eagles MMA product hasn’t disappointed. Making his debut during the pandemic, Khizriev immediately left an impression on Dana White’s Contender Series, scoring a finish inside the first round. Since then, “The Black Wolf” has scheduled fights, but because of the pandemic and opponents pulling out, Khizriev has almost flown under the radar completely. He officially made his debut in 2022 against Denis Tiuliulin. The fight was exciting for as long as it lasted. Tiuliulin was able to land some powerful shots, but Khizriev walked through all of it and utilized his wrestling skills to neutralize Tiuliulin and eventually find the submission. Now making his second official walk to the octagon, Khizriev will be welcomed by Muradov. Muradov has been with the UFC since 2019, like Khizriev, though he has had a slew of fights canceled for one reason or another. In total, Muradov has had six fights in the UFC, and seven fights canceled. Every time he fights thought, he displays the reasons why the UFC keeps him around. Muradov is athletic, like an NFL cornerback, and hits like a Mack truck when he connects. His only issue comes in the form of a limited gas tank and the ability to wrestle off his back against dominant grapplers. For example, his two losses in the UFC came against durable and high-level Grapplers. Gerald Meerschaert was able to withstand an early onslaught, and as soon as Muradov’s. gas tank wavered, Meerschaert sunk in an RNC and ended a fight no one believed he would win. Then Muradov went up against rising star Caio Borralho and once again was stifled by a grappler. Muradov has powerful hands and kicks, but his gas tank issues and inability to wrestle will cost him a future in the ufc if he doesn’t put it together. For that reason, I’m going to back Khizriev and take him to not only win on the money line but also to win by submission or decision. Both fighters are still new in the UFC and, after this weekend, hope to be known worldwide. 

Best Bet: Aliaskhab Khizriev by submission or decision +110

Urbina vs. Radtke Odds

Charlie Radtke +170, Gilbert Urbina -210

Kicking off the main card is The Ultimate Fighter vet Gilbert Urbina, who came up short in 2021 after losing to treason Gore in the finale of the show. He would disappear for two years and reappeared last year with an emphatic win over Orion Ocosce. He displayed a well-rounded game with a polished, striking attack. Urbina is one of three Urbina brothers who have competed either in the UFC or on The Ultimate Fighter show. Urbina is big for the weight class, which makes him hard to handle when he grapples. He makes his bones with his aggressive pace, striking, and ability to scramble out of bad positions. He’s relentless, averaging 6.33 significant strikes landed per minute while mixing in nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes. He also connects on 60% of strikes thrown and attempts one submission per 15 minutes; he primarily utilizes his grappling to impose his will and cause damage with ground and pound rather than submission hunt. Charles Radtke was up and down on the regional scene for a while before he went up in weight and went on a run that landed him a fight last year against “Blood Diamond.” Perhaps the ugliest fight of the year, Radtke won but was exposed in a fight that should’ve been a breeze. Still, he has another opportunity this weekend to show his improvements and why he belongs on the big stage. Both athletes are still reasonably new in the ufc, but the fighter with the more path to victories to me is Urbina. He throws 4x, the number of significant strikes Radtke throws, and has a considerable height and reach advantage. Radtke should be durable enough to make it a scrap, but in the end, I expect the aggression and pace of Urbina to be too much to handle for “Chuck Buffalo.” 

Best Bet: Gilbert Urbina by KO/TKO or decision -115