Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We kick off 2024 in MMA with a fight night card headlined by a rematch between Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. Their first fight ended in Round 1 of 3 after an accidental illegal knee. The contest ended in a no-contest, so now the athletes will get five rounds to settle the score.
The co-main event, like the main event, features two fighters looking to settle a score after their first matchup saw Manel Kape lose by split decision, which left many questioning the judging. The return of Jim Miller is also on the main card when he takes on fellow veteran Gabriel Benitez. Miller is still somehow improving in the late stages of his career and is currently 4-1 in his last five, with four finishes. Ricky Simon returns to the octagon after his five-fight win streak was snapped his last time out against Song Ya Dong. Mario Bautista steps in to challenge Ricky Simon, and it’ll be Bautista’s biggest test to date. Kicking off the main card is a car crash when Phil Hawes toes the line against UFC newcomer Bruno Ferreira, who is currently 2-1 in his first three UFC fights with two first-round finishes.
This weekend marks the beginning of a new MMA season and a great year of fights. Let’s take a look at the bets below. All odds are per BetMGM.
Ankalaev vs. Walker Odds
Magomed Ankalev -590, Johnny Walker +390
Walker and Ankalaev step into the octagon this weekend to continue a fight cut short by a ringside doctor in Abu Dhabi last year. The fight only lasted for half a round, but it seemed clear early that Ankalaev wanted to wrestle and keep this fight on the ground where Walker was less dangerous. Walker has always been unpredictable, so it’s hard to predict his game plan going into that fight. But Walker’s advantage is in the striking department. So, it’s interesting to see where this fight goes in the rematch. Walker claimed that he is the stronger fighter, but there isn’t much evidence to back that statement. However, he has a significant height (3 inches) and reach (7 inches) advantage. Still, his takedown defense could be a problem, as he only stops 57% of takedowns. Ankalaev averages 1.07 takedowns per 15 minutes, and even though he is very well-rounded, he tends to lean on his wrestling to neutralize his opponents and stay out of trouble. Ankalaev has been considered the division’s dark horse for some time but hasn’t been able to get the job done in the big moment. Perhaps a bit excited, looking for the finish in their first fight, which led to the doctor’s stoppage. I expect Ankalaev to get the job done and approach this fight with more patience to capitalize on any mistakes Walker makes. Walker has dialed it down through the years, but he still takes risks, and his game is predicated on being unpredictable, which creates exciting fights and leaves him open to being taken down and controlled. From a betting perspective, the best bet is the over 1.5 rounds prop. Ankalev averages nearly 12 minutes of fight time, and Walker seven; I also expect Ankalaev to wrestle, which should chew up some clock and get us over the finish line with ease. I will also take a stab at the sub-prop +850 for Ankalaev, as I can see his best path to victory is on the ground. The winner of this fight will be the No. 1 contender and finally get their title shot.
Best Bet: Ankalaev/Walker over 1.5 rounds -156
Nicolau vs. Kape Odds
Matheus Nicolau +215, Manel Kape -290
The co-main event, like the main event, is a rematch. The main event is in the light heavyweight division, and this fight is in the flyweight division between Kape and Nicolau. Their first encounter was back in 2021, ending in a questionable split decision win for Nicolau. After watching the fight, I can understand why both sides have an argument, but if the damage in a fight is what scores highest with judges, then Kape deserved the win. Nicolau did have some control time on the ground and did land a decent number of significant strikes, but neither the control time nor the single-punch counters he landed were enough to earn him that decision. Nicolau is a counter striker and sometimes will wait for almost an entire round, as he did against Dvorak, to throw a strike. He does have power and has won before by knockout, but a majority of his wins have been by decision because of his methodical striking style. Nicolaus, in his last match against Brandon Royval, showed a flaw in his seemingly granite chin. He was knocked out in the first round, and perhaps it could lead to trouble mentally for him against a powerful striker like Kape. Not to mention, Nicolau was dropped twice by Kape in their first fight.
Regarding fight time, both fighters average nearly 12 minutes; they’re also close in height, and Kape holds a two-inch reach advantage. Kape also averages more significant strikes, landing over five per minute. Compared to Nicolau, who lands just over 3.5 significant strikes per minute. From a betting perspective, this fight goes similar to the first but with a much more straightforward decision. Kape holds the edge in the volume and power department, and as long as he can stay off the ground, He should come out of this as the winner. The best bet is for this fight to go the distance. Both fighters are durable, and up until his last fight, Nicolau had not been stopped since 2018. Kape has only been stopped once in his career and never inside the UFC. I will also take a stab at the split decision prop +300, depending on the judges and the optics of the fight. It could end up going to a split decision. It’s the Apex to kick off an already wild year, and anything can happen.
Best Bet: Kape/Nicolau fight goes the distance -122
Miller vs. Benitez Odds
Jim Miller -136, Gabriel Benitez +108
Miller is my favorite fighter on the main card. He’s currently 4-1 in his last five fights, with four finishes. Even more impressive is that he’s doing this at what should be the tail end of his career. At 40, Miller seems to be improving, and this fight against another long-time vet is very winnable. Benitez is known for his powerful leg kicks, and his boxing is also very sharp and capable of knocking out anyone. In 33 fights, Benitez has nine wins by KO, 10 by submission and four by decision. With 19 of 23 wins coming by finish, Benitez doesn’t look to the judges much to settle things. It makes for exciting fights, but it also speaks to the decline in the durability of Benitez. Benitez is 2-3 in his last five fights, with two out of the three losses coming by way of nasty knockouts. His last win against Charlie Ontiveros was perhaps a layup and a lifeline for his career, but this time, he’s up against a veteran and someone with more tools to finish the fight. Anyone trying to strike with Benitez is asking for trouble, which is why this matchup is favorable for Jim, who has an advantage in the grappling department and can take Benitez out of his comfort zone. Benitez averages more significant strikes, but he also absorbs more, which isn’t good against Miller, who has finished everyone in his path lately and has power in his hands and feet. The best bet in this fight is on Jim Miller to get the job done inside the distance. You can also take him on the money-line at a reasonable price of -136, but considering the durability of Benitez as of late, I’m going with Jim Miller and the plus money prop for the win. I will also stab at Jim Miller to win by submission in rounds 1 or 2 +550.
Best Bet: Jim Miller by KO/TKO or submission +130
Simon vs. Bautista Odds
Ricky Simon -188, Mario Bautista +146
Simon is coming off a surprising loss in his last fight, which ended his five-fight winning streak. Simon made his debut in 2018, and it wasn’t until 2020 that he began his streak with a win over Ray Borg. He would beat Gaetano Pirrello, Brian Kelleher, Raphael Assuncao and, most impressively, Jack Shore. Simon is very well-rounded and carries fight-ending power in his strikes. His game is based around his grappling, mainly wrestling. He utilizes pace and pressure to break his opponents into submission or devastating ground and pound. His last fight exposed him and showed that if his opponents were as strong and athletic as him, it could lead to trouble. Song Yadong was not only athletic enough, but he was also defensively sound, defending critical takedowns. Song also had the edge in power, and once Ricky seemed frustrated, it all went downhill and led to the eventual knockout in the fifth round.
Bautista has been quietly making a name for himself and is on a five-fight winning streak similar to the one Simon was on before his last loss. He’s been in the UFC since 2019 and currently is 7-2. Bautista is very well-rounded but, like Simon, also utilizes his grappling to succeed. Three wins during this winning streak have been by submission, and in his career, over 45% of his wins have been by submission. The only problem for Bautista is that Simon has never been submitted in the UFC, and everywhere that Bautista is good, Simon is levels above. Not to mention that Simon defends 75% of takedowns coming his way compared to Bautista, who only defends 56%. I expect there to be a lot of scrambles early, but eventually, Simon will control the ground game and have success. They say when technique, height, reach, and skill are identical. Strength is what makes the difference. In this fight, Ricky Simon is stronger, which also means that he can end the fight with his strikes. The best bet for me is an alternate round prop that has Ricky Simon winning in the third round or by decision. I will also stab at Simon to win this fight by submission +500. In his last five fights, two of his wins have come by submission, and considering Bautista likes to grapple, I can see him finding himself in an arm triangle at some point.
Best Bet: Ricky Simon in Round 3 or by decision +105
Hawes vs. Ferreira Odds
Phil Hawes +105, Bruno Ferreira -136
Kicking off the main card is a matchup made up of violence. Hawes and Ferreira are the definition of action-packed as both fighters are pure destruction when they step into the octagon. Hawes has been on a bit of a slide lately, but in his career, he has won his fights by knockout over 65% of the time. To create highlight reels, you have to take risks, and recently, Hawes has come out firing but eventually gets extinguished rather quickly once he’s hurt. Still, Hawes has experience in the UFC and is capable of grappling, which rounds out his skill set and should help him get back in the win column if he wants to beat Ferreira. Ferreira has been in the UFC since 2022 and has yet to make it out of the first round. A similar trend in his career so far, as the Brazilian has yet to make it to the third round in 11 fights. Ferreira suffered his first loss last time out against Ruziboev. Ferreira’s destructive style inspired by Capoeira didn’t pay dividends, and he wasn’t able to land any damage before getting knocked out. It’s why, in the battle of the suspect chins, I will side with the Hawes, who has more experience in the UFC and a more well-rounded skill set. If Hawes can utilize his jiujitsu and stay clear of the power shots coming from Ferreira, I can see this being a big win for Hawes and perhaps one that saves his career in the UFC. The best bet in this fight is taking Phil Hawes on the money-line. All the finish props are juiced, and his moneyline is still slightly at plus money. Im also taking a stab at Hawes to win by submission +950. Considering his best path to victory Is on the ground, I can see him ending the fight with a choke of some sort.
Best Bet: Phil Hawes ML +105
