MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
The UFC is back in Vegas, but instead of the T-Mobile Arena, they are at the Apex to feature Mateusz Gamrot and Rafael Fiziev. The main event clash is in the lightweight division, and it should be a banger of a fight. Both guys are 4-1 in their last five and are looking to keep momentum going with a win Saturday.
The co-main event features Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige in another bout that should bring nothing but fireworks for as long as it lasts. We also revisit the strawweight division when Marina Rodriguez takes on UFC vet The Karate Hottie Michelle Waterson.
The fight card has five fights on the main card and 11 overall. Below, I break down my favorite fights from the event and give you guys a best bet for each. All odds are from BetMGM.
Fiziev vs. Gamrot Odds
Rafael Fiziev -155, Matuesz Gamrot +130
Gamrot came into the UFC in 2020 on a 17-fight win streak. A double champ on the KSW regional scene, Gamrot went with a lot of hype, which is why a loss in his debut to Guram Kutateladze was surprising. He would bounce back a year later in 2021 and ground and pound Scott Holtzman, submit Jeremy Stephens and break Diego Ferreira. The three wins in 2021 would set up a main event against Arman Tsaryuken. Although he won the fight, many believed the judges got it wrong. “Gamer” hit the ceiling in his next fight against Beneil Dairush, who could grapple enough to nullify Gamrot enough to keep it standing and expose the gas tank and lack of defense from Gamrot. Gamer has landed 26 takedowns so far in the UFC, and what’s interesting is that he only succeeds on 31% of those takedown attempts. Still, what makes him compelling is how well he transitions through takedown techniques and his unwillingness to quit on the takedown. He’s sticky, drowning opponents until they break and racking up enough ground control to compensate for a suspect gas tank. Gamrot bounced back earlier this year against Jalin Turner, and maybe you can blame the short notice fight for a lacking gas tank, but Gamrot got tired, and if Turner possessed a better takedown defense, he possibly could’ve won late. Now he’s up against an elite striker in Rafael Fiziev. “Ataman” came into the UFC with similar hype and undefeated. His debut didn’t go as planned, as he was surprisingly stopped in just 86 seconds by Magomed Mustafaev.
After that fight, Fiziev went on a six-fight win streak, taking out names like Renato Moicano by KO, Brad Riddell by spinning wheel kick and, in one of his most recent wins, Rafael Dos Anjos by KO. Fiziev met his ceiling after taking on the sport’s most violent man, Justin Gaethje. The fight was close, but Fiziev wilted late, and Gaethje capitalized. Fiziev is world-class. He may not have the same MMA experience that Gamrot has, but he does have combat experience and a wealth of striking techniques to try and stifle Gamrot. From a betting perspective, this fight can go either way. Gamrot can wrestle early and often and create problems for Fiziev, and Fiziev can stuff the takedowns and make this a striking battle he can win. It’s a battle of resiliency, durability, and, most notably, good conditioning. The fighter who’s freshest late in the fight will win. The success of each fighter comes in the execution of their game plans, and I’m leaning toward Fiziev to stuff the takedowns and chip away at Gamrot until he breaks or the fight ends. Either way, this is a fight of the night in the making, and whichever side wins, the other should be able to hold their head high.
Bet: Rafael Fiziev ML and over 1.5 rounds -115
Mitchell vs. Ige Odds
Bryce Mitchell -210, Dan Ige +170
Ige may never win a championship. Still, his career and fight style will be something fans never forget. “50k” Ige stepped into the octagon back in 2018. He initially made himself known on the Contender Series in 2017. He wasn’t signed after his performance but would make a short-notice replacement debut against Julio Arce. He would win the following six fights and land his first main event spot against Calvin Kattar. Ige’s size and style hit a wall against the New England cartel member. Kattar negated the brawling style of Ige and kept the Hawaiian at the end of his strikes and avoided the power. After that fight, Ige would bounce back with a 22-second starching of Gavin Tucker and follow that up with a three-fight losing streak. Ige has bounced back with two impressive wins in 2023 over Damon Jackson by knockout and Nate Landwehr by beatdown. He’s looking for another success and the opportunity to right the ship and get back on track after his three-fight slump.
Looking to derail the “50k” win streak is another rising star, Mitchell. Thug Nasty has been in the UFC since 2018 after a run on The Ultimate Fighter put him on the map and led to a contract. His unorthodox approach and elite level of grappling have made him a problem for anyone he’s up against. Since his loss to Brad Katona on the ultimate fighter, Mitchell went on a six-fight win streak. He beat Bobby Moffet in his debut as an underdog, then beat Matt Sayles by twister submission, and then got a jump in competition but never skipped a beat. He beat Charles Rosa, Andre Fili and Edson Barboza. The Barboza fight showed a complete Mitchell who was not only able to ground Edson multiple times but was also able to out-strike and drop Edson with punches. The Edson fight would match Mitchell with Ilia Topuria, who didn’t seem to care about nor fear the wrestling of Mitchell and would violently halt the prospects’ title run.
Ige possesses power and could be the great equalizer in this matchup, but the problem for Ige will be whether he can keep the fight standing long enough to cause damage. Not to mention that while Bryce was finished in his last fight, it was by submission and not knockout. It Indicates a tough out for Ige if he can’t land any fight-ending power. I can see this fight going to a decision for several reasons firstly because of the durability of each fighter. Secondly, Bryce Mitchell will grapple and rack up control time, and finally, because both fighters are highly motivated for this one. Bryce is motivated to get back in the win column after his first official loss, and Dan Ige is encouraged to keep the win streak alive after going through a dark period in his career. I will lean with Mitchell in this spot because I believe he has the finishing ability with his Jiujitsu, and also add another layer to the fight that judges can use to split the close rounds.
Bet: Bryce Mitchell in Round 3 or by decision -135 | Bryce Mitchell by split decision +700
Battle vs. Fletcher Odds
Bryan Battle -185, AJ Fletcher +155
Battle made it to the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter show in 2021. He beat Kemron Lachinov and Andre Petroski before making his official debut against Gilbert Urbina. He beat Urbina and Tresean Gore before moving to welterweight (170 pounds). He immediately impacted his new weight class by sending Takashi Sato to the shadow realm with a head kick. Battle, not known for his kicks or striking, seemed to have carried his power down from middleweight. He was always pudgy and didn’t look like an athlete, but now, at welterweight, Battle seems to have found the recipe for success. He hit his first bump on the road against Rinat Fakhretdinov and immediately bounced back with a 14-second knockout of Gabe Green this past May.
Battle now moves on to fight Fletcher. The Louisiana native entered the UFC through the Contender Series in 2021. A brick house of an athlete, Fletcher possesses all of the athletic ability to succeed at the highest level, but so far, his physical attributes have cost him some fights. For one, Fletcher is already a small fighter, and he also has a large frame for a small fighter, which makes it tough on his gas tank. Then throw in that he has a reach comparable to my 3-year-old. It’s been a recipe for disaster for Fletcher if he isn’t able to win early or find his wrestling. Against Ange Loosa, Fletcher had Ange on death’s door but couldn’t get the job done. He tried so hard for the finish that he gassed himself out and lost. Fletcher began 2023 with a win over Themba Gorimbo and now looks to gain momentum after his first UFC win. Unfortunately for him, he’s up against a guy with a 10-inch reach advantage who also towers over him by three inches. Fletcher will have to wrestle and close the distance if he hopes to have success. Battle doesn’t have the best takedown defense, but he does have enough grappling chops to slow Fletcher down. Battle also has new power in the welterweight division, and even though he may not knock Fletcher out, I think he will be the one connecting with more damage. Fletcher is durable and has never been stopped in his MMA career. It may not happen as fast as his previous fights, but I can see Battle finishing Fletcher late after a back-and-forth fight in the first two rounds. The pick is Battle to win in the third or on the scorecards.
Bet: Bryan Battle in Round 3 or by decision +150
Jourdain vs. Ramos Odds
Charles Jourdain -140, Ricardo Ramos +115
Jourdain kicks off the main card with Ramos this weekend as the two featherweights look to add consistency to their UFC careers. Jourdain is currently 3-2 in his last five, with wins over Andre Ewell, Lando Vannata and Kron Gracie. His last fight against Gracie was a one-sided beat down, with Gracie not having much to offer besides some butt-scooting. Jourdain has always been exciting, and a fight you never want to miss, but his inconsistency in the octagon has left him in limbo and forever climbing the mountain. He was on a two-fight win streak followed by a two-fight losing streak. If he loses to Kron in his last fight, he possibly could’ve been cut. Still, the French-Canadian moves on and takes on a similar fighter stylistically in Ramos.
Ramos is currently 3-2 in his last five, with his most recent win coming over Danny Chavez last year. Like Jourdain, Ramos is a fighter you never want to miss and offers an explosive style that features kicks, elbows, and deadly jiu-jitsu. Similar to a young Charles Oliveira, he can end a fight with his limbs or submit you on the ground. He averages nearly three takes down per 15 minutes and has a striking output of 3.34 significant strikes landed per minute. He doesn’t spam his jiu-jitsu either; he tries to blend his unorthodox striking to find openings and opportunities to grapple. Still, if there is a flaw in his game, it’s that, like a young Charles Oliveira, once his opponents begin to gain momentum, Ramos starts to fade. That’s exactly how I see this fight going. Jourdain may encounter some early fire from Ramos, but in true “Air” Jourdain fashion, I expect him to turn the tides and find the finish late in the second or third round. Either way, this fight should be a fun one, and I can’t wait to watch it.
Bet: Charles Jourdain ML -140 | Jourdain in Round 3 or by decision +150
Means vs. Filhao Odds
Tim Means +140, Andre Fialho -170
The most exciting fight on the prelims comes between UFC long-time veteran Means and a Portuguese powerhouse in Fialho. The two are highly talented and still capable of making a run in the UFC despite their lack of recent success. For Means, this fight could be the end of the road if it ends badly. The 39-year-old has been a mainstay in the welterweight division since 2014, after an early run in the UFC didn’t bear fruit and was let go by the promotion. With a mixture of experience, toughness, good boxing and wrestling, he has been able to challenge the who’s who of the division while having success against the new school of fighters. Means’ last string of wins came in 2021 when he took out Nicholas Dalby and Mikey Perry. Those wins proved that he could still hang with the young bucks, and the dirty bird continues to take one to throw two, a style that may get him in trouble against the young and hungry Fialho.
Like Means, Fialho is currently 2-3 in his last five fights. The concern for Fialho is that all three of those losses were by knockout. Still, he possesses the skills to get an impressive win here against Means and get his career back on track before it derails. Fialho came into the UFC like he was shot out of a cannon in 2022 and managed to fit five fights in his first year. He showed a lot of strengths but also weaknesses. His main drawback is that if the fight gets out of the first round, the more challenging the fight becomes for him. His strength is sometimes his weakness, as his powerful strikes tax his gas tank significantly and take him out of fights late. In this matchup, though, I think Fialho gets it done early. Means it takes too much damage to give damage, and at 39, that could spell trouble and an early ending to this fight. Both guys average similar striking and defensive numbers, but Means does average more takedowns. Takedown attempts that will most likely happen after Fialho rocks him. Fialho also possesses good wrestling chops, and if he can keep his gas tank in order, I don’t see this being a challenge for him.
Bet: Andre Fialho by KO/TKO or submission -120
