MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
After one of the best cards of the year and possibly the decade, the UFC returns to the apex to feature a main event fight between Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva at UFC Vegas 77. Holm is 41 years old and currently ranked the No. 2 female bantamweight in the world. She has been fighting in the UFC since 2015 and made her statement when she beat and retired Ronda Rousey. Now in this late-career stage, she is still elevating her game and making a run toward the title. Bueno Silva is here as the No. 8 bantamweight in the world, and with a win Saturday, she’s one step closer to realizing her dream of becoming champion.
There are 13 fights on the card, and the main card is packed with fighters who don’t know what it’s like to go to a judge’s scorecard. From the main card’s opening to the co-main event, the fighters participating have combined to finish 41 fights in the first round. This card may not have many fan favorites or well-known fighters, but violence is definitely on the menu this weekend.
Below I’ll be breaking down my favorite fights from the weekend — there aren’t many, but I think I’ve picked out the best out of 13, and come Sunday we could be swimming in cash. All odds are from BetMGM.
Holm vs. Bueno Silva Odds
Holly Holm -180, Mayra Bueno Silva +150
Holm hasn’t shown any signs of wanting to quit. She’s 3-2 in her last five, with wins over Yana Santos, Irene Aldana and Raquel Pennington. Her two losses came against former champion and now-retired Amanda Nunes and Keitlan Veria by a split decision. Holm is a former world champion in the world of boxing, and after 40-plus professional bouts, she transitioned to kickboxing and then eventually MMA. In her eighth year with the promotion, Holm is making another run toward the title. Her fitness level and style are the reasons for her longevity. At 41, she is fitter than most 20-year-olds, and not many women outside of Amanda Nunes hit like a truck. She has been able to stay healthy and continue to pursue the belt. Holm was the first woman to beat Ronda Rousey in an era when Rousey seemed unbeatable. Her Achilles heel has been her grappling in the past, but she recently showed massive improvements in that department against Yana Santos.
It’s crucial, because Bueno Silva may want to take this fight to the ground to negate the boxing coming from Holm. Bueno Silva is tough, powerful, and at times gunshy. In her fight against Manon Fiorot, she was trying to frustrate her opponent by simply showing that strikes weren’t affecting her. The problem with that strategy is that Bueno Silva is fighting from behind the entire fight, and since she didn’t find the finish, she lost the fight unanimously. She is dangerous and can find a finish if the opportunity arises. Yet the experience, height (2in.) and reach(3in.) advantages, and the fact that Silva absorbs nearly five significant strikes per minute is enough for me to side with Holm. I wouldn’t be surprised if Silva can hurt Holm, but I expect the five-round experience and nearly a decade of fighting in the UFC will get Holm the win.
Bet: Holly Holm ML and over 1.5 rounds -150 | Holm in Rounds 4, 5 or by decision -125
Duraev vs. Park Odds
Albert Duraev +130, Jun Yong Park -157
The co-main event is set for fireworks when Duraev looks to make a statement against the Iron Turtle, Park. Duarev came into the UFC with a lot of hype out of Russia. He’s undefeated in the highly touted ACB regional promotion. He made his first statement on the contender series, taking out a formidable Brazilian opponent via neck crank. His style, like many Russians before him, is based on wrestling, but he doesn’t mind standing and banging, although, at times, he can be a bit hesitant and gunshy, looking to land the perfect punch. Duraev has three wins by knockout, nine by submission and four by decision. In the UFC, he has yet to find a finish, and his first three performances saw him lose to an old teammate (Joaquin Buckley), beat Roman Kopylov and beat Chidi Njokuani by a split decision.
Other than his wrestling, Duraev’s best quality is his durability, as he already has been tested and almost finished by knockout in his first three fights. Against Kopylov, he was stunned multiple times but found takedowns in moments of chaos, which allowed him to regain his composure and dominate on the ground. Duraev is an excellent grappler, and he will have his hands full against the Iron Turtle, who not only is very durable but also can grapple and has a 70% takedown defense. Jun Yong Park came to the ufc in 2019, and since then, he has beaten some notable names like Eryk Anders, Tafon Nchukwi and Marc Andre Barriault. He is 6-2 in the UFC, with two wins by submission and four by decision. His two losses have come by stoppage. He was stopped most recently by Gregory Rodrigues in a slobberknocker and was submitted in his debut fight against Anthony Hernandez in 2019.
Park’s style is similar to Duraev, who also uses wrestling to dominate his fights. His first four fights in the UFC saw him try and grapple, and it’s why most of those fights ended on the judge’s scorecard. It wasn’t until he fought Gregory Rodrigues that Park woke up the killer inside. He was knocked out in the second round against Rodrigues, but the violent and aggressive nature of his type shined through. Since that fight, he has gone 3-0 with two wins by submission. He also was able to stop over 20 takedown attempts from Eryk Anders. The Iron Turtle seems to be finding his groove in the UFC, while Duraev is looking to make a statement and extend his win streak after suffering his first loss in the UFC and his first loss in nearly ten years. Before he lost his fight to Buckley, he hadn’t lost since 2014. This fight is going to be a scrap, and both sides are going to land some good damage on the feet. The difference maker will be in the wrestling department and whether Duarev will succeed in taking Park down and dominating. Duraev has a height (one inch) and reach (two inches) advantage; Park averages nearly five significant strikes landed per minute, while Duraev is a bit more selective, only landing three significant strikes per minute. Park also throws more combos, while Duraev lunges into his attacks, like Yoel Romero. He changes levels well, and once he’s on your back or has you down, he becomes a wet blanket. The grappling, for me, will be the difference and also why this fight goes the distance.
Bet: Albert Duraev ML +130 | Duraev/Park fight goes the distance -120
Azaitar vs. Prado Odds
Ottman Azaitar -110, Francisco Prado -110
Dana White’s fight of the week goes to Prado and Azaitar. Both men are aggressive, look to end fights with every strike and want to get back in the win column after suffering their first professional losses in their last fight. Both fighters are similar in height, reach, output and style. They shoot to kill, and it’s proven by the fact that each of these guys has only been to a decision once in their entire careers. Azaitar, outside of the one fight that went to a decision, has only been to one third round since. Every fight has ended inside the distance. Azaitar Averages nearly seven significant strikes landed per minute, and everything that he throws comes from the hip with very little technique in his striking. He is very accurate, though and within the chaos, he usually is the last man standing when the dust settles. His defensive wrestling is also on point as he utilizes under hooks well to stay off his back and keep his opponent at a distance with devastating knees up against the fence. Now although it’s not something to be proud of as a fighter but Ottman has a granite chin. Azaitar lunges into his combos, and in those moments, he has been countered and almost finished. Every time but the last, he could weather the storm and use his wrestling and strength to fight back and find a finish.
His last time out, I believe some ring rust plagued him, and it showed as his timing was off, and he was sent to the shadow realm by Matt Frevola. Not to discredit Frevola, but being away for two years and stepping against an active fighter like Frevola was probably not the best idea. That fight was supposed to be a step up for Frevola, and I believe it to be the same for Prado. Prado is good and athletic but lacks the level of competition, and while he does have power and grappling in his pocket. Azaitar is more than equipped to handle anything Prado may have. This fight is a coin flip because of the violence each brings to the octagon. I will lean with the experience, though, and I believe Azaitar has the edge in that department. I will also bet on this fight going past the 7.5-minute mark or over 1.5 rounds. While both fighters are chaotic, they are also very durable, and if there is a finish, I believe it to be in the second or third round.
Bet: Ottman Azaitar ML -110 | Prado/Azaitar over 1.5 rounds +130
McKinney vs. Sadykhov Odds
Terrance McKinney +125, Nazim Sadykhov -150
Kicking off the main card with violence, McKinney faces Sadykhov in hopes of getting back into the win column. His last fight didn’t go as planned, as he was knocked out cold by debutant Ismael Bonfim. Until his last fight, McKinney had never been past the first round. Out of 13 fights, 12 had been won in the first round by knockout or submission. McKinney fought as a featherweight on the Contender Series; he lost an exciting fight to Sean Woodson and then lost soon after on the regional scene to Darrick Minner. After those losses, he transitioned to lightweight and won five straight fights by knockout in the first round. His first loss in the UFC came against Drew Dober in a back-and-forth rock ‘em sock ‘em fight. He bounced back against Erick Gonzalez, but what was interesting was how much wrestling/grappling McKinney incorporated. He has a wrestling background, but he usually only grapples when rocked. He tried that against Bonfim and paid for it dearly.
Sadykhov fights out of the famed Serralongo Gym and trains with a wealth of talent and experience, which explains why he is so well-rounded. Sadykhov is aggressive, Calculated and looks for finishes when the bell sounds. He spends a lot of time fending off takedowns because opponents try to negate the power Sadykhov has. Similar to McKinney, Sadykhov has won most of his fights by stoppage. The majority of the stoppages come by way of knockout (75%), and while he does have some wins in the first round, Sadykhov has set a trend of finishing fights late in the third round. In his last five fights, four have ended in the third round. His two most recent were in the UFC, and some experts may say that if it weren’t for those stoppages, then Sadykhov could be 0-2 instead of 2-0 in the UFC.
Now there is a high possibility this fight ends in the first round, but I think it goes past the first round and ends either late second or third round. I’m basing this off the toughness and durability of Sadykhov, who averages nearly 12 minutes of fight time. For that reason, I will bet that this fight completes one full round at -115 and take the over one and half round prop at +145. I’m also going to side with Twrecks in this one. Experience is a significant factor in the UFC, and while Sadykhov does have a great training room, his first two fights showed he can be made vulnerable and is very hittable. Nazim Absorbs nearly five significant strikes per minute, which is one too many against a striker as powerful as McKinney, who also has a four-inch reach advantage. The pick is McKinney to fight smart, calculated, and use his reach, speed and power to find a finish.
Bet: Terrance McKinney ML +125 | McKinney/Sadykhov completes one full round -115
