Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The UFC returns to the Apex in Vegas this week after the world saw the greatest women’s champion, Amanda Nunes, retire on top in last week’s event. This week we get to watch the rise of two middleweight contenders in the main event when Marvin Vettori takes on Jared Cannonier.
The co-main event features Arman Tsarukyan and Joaquim Silva. Silva has two finishes in his last two fights, and the last time Tsarukyan got finished was back in 2015. There is also the return of some newcomers on the main card, fighters like Nikolas Motta, Christian Leroy Duncan and Lucas Almeida all look to raise their stock with wins this weekend. There is also the return of some familiar faces in the prelims, fighters like Modestas Bukauskas, Ronnie Lawerence and Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
From top to bottom, this card is packed with action, some new, some old. Either way, after Saturday night there will be some divisions reshaped and some new ranked fighters. As usual, I will break down my favorite bets for this weekend. I’m breaking down my favorite fights on this week’s 14-fight card with my best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Vettori vs. Cannonier Odds
Marvin Vettori -125, Jared Cannonier +105
Vettori has been a pro since 2012, and since 2016 the Italian Dream has been growing and making a name for himself inside the UFC. During his time with the promotion, Vettori has challenged for the belt and has fought the best that the middleweight division has to offer. He only lost to current champion Israel Adesanya and former champion Robert Whittaker. Every time Vettori steps into the octagon, he shows improvement and a better pace and aggression as he sets himself as one of the guys at the top of the division. His consistent, aggressive pressure can characterize Vettori’s style. He is not a specialist in any area, but instead a proper mixed martial artist that knows how to blend all of his tools well. Vettori also has a black belt in Brazilian jiujitsu that will come in handy against the Cannonier’s power.
Cannonier started his UFC career as a heavyweight and has since transitioned to middleweight. His speed, power and aggression make him a challenge for any opponent, and so far in the UFC, he is 9-6, with 56% of his wins coming by knockout. Cannonier has technique but at times can depend on his power too much, leading to a lack of volume in search of the perfect punch. Both fighters have similar output and fight time averages. The difference in this fight will be whether Vettori can secure takedowns. This fight will likely go on into the championship rounds, aka the deep water, and the gas tank and wrestling of Vettori will make the difference in the close rounds.
Bet: Marvin Vettori ML -125/Vettori by split decision +800
Tsarukyan vs. Silva Odds
Arman Tsarukyan -1200, Joaquim Silva +650
Tsarukyan is the biggest favorite on the card this week at -1200 (93.1% win probability); he takes on veteran Silva in the co-main event. Silva has a base in Brazilian jiujitsu, but with 57% of his wins coming by way of knockout, Silva seems to have fallen in love with knocking people out. Silva is a well-rounded ball of aggression. Silva is 2-3 in his last five fights and has seen the judges in neither. Silva fights with reckless abandon because he knows if he gets taken down, he can handle his own. He also fights so fast that most opponents melt under pressure. Silva has won 25% of his fights by submission, meaning he doesn’t mind going to the ground. The problem for him, though, is that Tsarukyan does not mind fighting on the ground; next to Islam Makhachev, he may be the next best.
Tsarukyan fights out of Russia and, since joining the UFC, has quickly and quietly built an excellent record and taken out names like Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, Olivier Aubin Mercier and perhaps the most prominent name Makhachev. Tsarukyan fought the current champ Makhachev on his debut and fought the champion to a decision. There are two ways your debut can go, and having a competitive fight against the second coming of khabib is a confidence booster. Since that fight in 2019, Tsarukyan has lost only once and currently is 6-2 in the UFC. From a betting perspective I am going to side with tsarukyan. His price tag is too expensive this week, so I went with a prop to bring down the odds to a good number.
Silva has the toolset to present a challenge but for me, Tsarukyan is too well-rounded and skilled enough to protect himself anywhere this fight goes. Anything can happen in a fight, but I’m confident that Arman gets a finish in this fight. Silva is good but, at times, a bit too reckless, and that will be his downfall against a very calculated fighter.
Bet: Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO -135
Duncan vs. Petrosyan Odds
Christian Leroy Duncan -152, Armen Petrosyan +125
Perhaps the most exciting fight on the card is between Petrosyan and newcomer Duncan. Both men are relatively new in the sport of MMA, and both have won their fights by knockout over 70% of the time. Duncan is athletic and has a background in basketball. A former Juco athlete, Duncan shows all the attributes of a well-rounded fighter. He can strike, kick and grapple, and he’s also very creative with the type of strikes he throws. Duncan has shown to be a liability on the canvas, but against a former kickboxer, I don’t think this fight will be hitting the canvas much unless Duncan decides to make it part of his game plan.
Petrosyan is a former kickboxer who made his debut on the Contender Series. He was controlled for the first half of the fight until he found his rhythm and quickly dispatched his opponent with body kicks and punches. Like Duncan, Petrosyan doesn’t need many opportunities to put his opponents to sleep. Petrosyans’ primary weapon is his kicks, and it doesn’t take much to the body to stop a fight. My problem with Petrosyan is his gas tank at this career stage. If he’s able to find a rhythm and fight standing, then he can do well for 15 minutes, but it’s when his opponents mix in the takedowns that it becomes difficult for Armen.
Petrosyan as a slight dog would be a good bet, but against this highly touted prospect, I don’t see him outclassing Duncan, and if he’s not careful, he could end up being knocked out. Duncan is aggressive, hungry, and, after an anticlimactic debut that ended with injury, is determined to put on a show at -152 (60% win probability). Duncan is a bit juiced, so I went with a prop that still has juice but at a slightly better number.
Bet: Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO or decision -135
Motta vs. Torres Odds
Nikolas Motta +150, Manuel Torres -180
This fight has violence written all over it. Motta has won 70% of fights by knockout, and Torres has won his contests half by sub and half by knockout. Neither of these athletes likes to leave his livelihood in the hands of the judges, and I don’t think that’ll change this weekend. Motta is an aggressive fighter but very well-rounded. He has shown the ability to fight anywhere the fight takes him, but he’s happiest when he can stand and bang. It can lead to exciting fights and risky situations for the young Brazilian. Motta made his debut on the Ultimate Fighter Brazil. He was much less calculated and used his aggressive style to bulldoze his opponents. He wouldn’t make it into the UFC based on that performance but would have an impressive career on the regional scene. Motta got his second chance in the big show when he debuted against longtime vet Jim Miller. Motta looked good until he was caught and finished in the second round. He proved that he belonged and, in his second fight, returned to his ways by finding a knockout in the first round.
Torres made his debut on the Contender Series and, since finding a knockout in that fight, has shown aggression and style that the bosses like. Torres favors the stand up, using a piercing deep kick and an aggressive pace to pressure his opponents. True to his nickname, “El Loco” fights without concern for his health and looks to create car crashes with his opponents. He’s usually the bigger fighter with more reach, as Torres is big for the division. With a 73-inch span, he has a three-inch advantage on Motta. This could come in handy because Motta will have to close the distance, which means Torres can sit back and counter. Motta has the edge in experience because of the talent he has faced so far in his career. Torres has a high finishing rate, but his competition level can be considered weak. He’s beaten Frank Camacho, who should’ve been cut years ago, and he beat Kolton Englund on the Contender Series, but if you rewind that fight, you’ll see that there was an eye poke before the knockout that hindered Englund.
I have two bets for this fight, and I am going to take the juice on the “under 1.5 rounds” prop and also going to take the underdog Motta. Torres has yet to get out of the first round and averages three minutes of fight time, and Motta is the cleaner striker and, inside of the chaos, should be able to land a bomb.
Bet: Motta vs. Torres under 1.5 rounds -155/Nikolas Motta +150
Kang vs. Quinonez Odds
Kyung Ho Kang +125, Christian Quinonez -150
Kang is a well-rounded fighter from South Korea. Mr. Perfect has been a professional since 2007 and with the UFC since 2013. He isn’t as well known because of his stints of inactivity. Kang has had to serve several mandatory military terms in Korea, but when he’s in the octagon, he’s won three fights by sub and four by decision so far in the UFC. Kang has shown an educated variety of strikes with good technique. He doesn’t telegraph punches and throws various strikes, including knees and kicks, with accuracy and fight-ending power. King’s grappling skill set is also noteworthy; he has a black belt in Brazilian jiujitsu and judo and incorporates those disciplines well into his game plans. Kang, at times, can be reckless, and it has led to flash knockdowns in the past, but his durability has kept him in fights. With 67% of wins coming by submission, Kang has a game plan, but he doesn’t mind standing and banging, which should make this fight a fun one for as long as it lasts.
Quinonez fights out of the famed Entram Gym in Mexico alongside current champion Brandon Moreno. He has an aggressive style utilizing kicks, knees, and elbows. He also shows an excellent ability to counter and use his volume against opponents. Quinonez nearly triples the output of Kang, but Kang absorbs less damage, which means he’s much more calculated and accurate.
That, to me, is the difference in this fight, Kang throws clean straight shots, and Quinonez is known to throw loopy punches and combinations. Both fighters are experienced and have fought a lot, but only one of the two has fought at the highest level longer. Fighting in the UFC since 2013, I will side with Kang as the slight underdog.
Bet: Kyung Ho Kang ML +125
Bondar vs. Hernandez Odds
Denys Bondar -130, Carlos Hernandez +110
Bondar and Hernandez are both coming off losses in their last fights. Bondar debuted against Malcolm Gordon and suffered a shoulder injury midway through the first round. Hernandez is 1-1 in the UFC and still relatively new at this level. His last time out, he was submitted by Allan Nascimento. This fight is interesting because both athletes are well-rounded and specialists on the ground. Hernandez has won his contests by submission 50% of the time and 50% by decision.
Bondar has won his fights by submission 69% of the time. In terms of experience level, Bondar has a slight edge, having fought more fights as a pro and having tougher competition in Russia and Ukraine. Historically the regional scenes in Europe can be questionable, but there is no question that Bondar’s competition has been better than Hernandez’s. Carlos does have slightly better striking in the stand-up, but his game plan is fixated on taking fights to the ground.
For that reason, I’m going to side with Bondar, who, in my opinion, is the better grappler and fights with an intensity and pace that’ll be too much for Hernandez. I’m also going to take a stab at Bondar winning this fight by sub. Hernandez was subbed his last time out and Bondar will be relentlessly chasing the finish.
Bet: Denys Bondar ML -130/Bondar by submission +400
