NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
The UFC stays in Vegas this weekend for another action-packed card. This card features seven fighters making their octagon debuts and three stepping in on short notice. The main event features Ryan Spann and Nikita Krylov, two fighters currently on winning streaks and looking to get closer to a title shot. In the co-main event, Brendan Allen looks to test his grappling chops against surging Brazilian Andre Muniz, who has found finishes in three out of his last five fights in the UFC.
This card may not feature many stars of today, but the stars of the future will be featured. This card is a perfect appetizer for what’s to come next week, when Jon Bones Jones returns to the octagon at UFC 285 against Cyril Gane. There are 13 fights on this card, and as usual I will be breaking down my favorite fights and giving you a best bet for each. All odds are from BetMGM.
Main Card
Krylov vs. Spann Odds
Nikita Krylov -170; Ryan Spann +145
The main event this weekend features two very dangerous light heavyweights. Krylov fights out of Ukraine and has been a pro inside the UFC since 2013. Spann has been fighting since 2013 but only began fighting in the UFC in 2018. Fighting out of Fortis MMA, the Texas native is more than capable of pulling an upset. Krylov is very well-rounded. He blends a Kyokushin karate background with good wrestling. Krylov averages seven minutes of fight time, puts out 4.45 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.50 significant strikes per minute. Against Spann, Krylov will have to blend his striking and grappling well and stay clear of brawling with Spann. Spann averages 4:43 of fight time and has finished six of the seven UFC fights on his record inside of the first round. Many times, in his career, Spann has wrestled and has leaned on finding a submission when his fists aren’t doing enough damage. Krylov has power in his strikes, but the type of damage that Krylov creates is cumulative and less sudden. He must use his movement, Kicks, and wrestling to tie up Spann and zap his energy and power. From a betting perspective, I will lean toward Krylov because he has more tools and experience against better talent. Spann is a live underdog, but only because of his power and not because he brings something Krylov has never seen to the table. Outside of a flash knockout for Spann, Krylov rolls easily and continues his winning streak.
Bet: Nikita Krylov ML -170
Allen vs. Muniz Odds
Brendan Allen +185; Andre Muniz -225
The co-main event features Muniz and Allen, two dangerous grapplers in the middleweight division looking to keep their winning streaks alive. Allen is fresh off a submission victory over Krystof Jotko, while Muniz is coming off his second decision victory in the UFC (his other three were all by submission). Each fighter has at most eight minutes of fight time, and both have over 20 professional fights. Experience and the pursuit of a finish will not be lacking, but striking output and energy for Muniz may lack, and that is why Allen can win this weekend as a +200 underdog. I understand that I may be on an island with this pick, but I can’t get over the glaring stat of Muniz and his 1.91 significant strikes landed per minute. Compare that to Allen, who averages 3.99 significant strikes per minute and also can prevent takedowns. The longer this fight goes, the more it weighs on the gas tank of Muniz, who depends heavily on control time and setting traps for his opponents. If Muniz isn’t successful in creating enough control time and damage on the ground. I can see a world where Allen gets taken down during the fight but does more damage and shows a clear advantage in the stand-up, as he did against Jacoub Malkoun. Malkoun isn’t known as a submission hunter but is an exceptional wrestler. When he didn’t create enough damage with his control time, he lost to Allen by decision and learned that this is more than just wrestling. The same will happen to Muniz, who will depend heavily on grappling with an opponent who will be just as sharp on the ground. Along with the bet on Allen, I think this fight will go into the later rounds. If there is a finish, it will happen in the third round, as both fighters are as durable as they are tough.
Bet: Brendan Allen ML +200/Allen vs. Muniz over 2.5 rounds +145
Mallot vs. Lainesse Odds
Mike Mallot -210; Yohan Lainesse +175
Mallot/Lainesse may be the most violent fight on the card this weekend. Mallot has yet to go to a judge’s scorecard in his professional career. Even more impressive is that Mallot has never passed the first round of any fight. Mallot made his debut on the Contender Series and made himself known to the bosses with a quick Guillotine finish of Shimon Smotritsky. Since then, Mallot made his official UFC debut against veteran Mickey Gall. Again, he finished in the first round in under two minutes. Mallot is outsized in this matchup but has yet to be outclassed, as the Alpha Male striking coach is no slouch in any department of MMA. Lainesse is also a very dangerous and capable fighter who made himself known on the Contender Series in 2021 with a quick finish over top contender (at the time) Justin Burnlinson. Like Mallot, Lainesse is allergic to judges and has only been to a decision three times in his pro career, with the rest of his wins coming in the first or second round by knockout. Early in his career, Lainesse was a bit reckless, but in his last fight against Darian Weeks he displayed a more calculated approach with more movement and less brawling. This game plan in my opinion will get him into trouble against the better equipped and technical striker Mallot. Mallot is hittable but is very durable and has never been knocked out in the UFC and I don’t expect Lainesse to be the one to do it. I actually expect Lainesse to lean a bit on his grappling to avoid getting hit by Mallot, as Mallot is the better striker and also possesses fight ending power. Essentially a coin flip because of the power that both men possess, I will side with Mallot who not only has the power but the technique to match.
Bet: Mike Mallot by KO/TKO or submission -125
Gonzalez vs. Peek Odds
Erick Gonzalez +175; Trevor Peek -225
Two newcomers enter the octagon this weekend when “The Ghost Pepper” Gonzalez faces off against Contender Series alum Peek. Some fights seem like builder fights for up-and-coming prospects, and for Peek this fight is just that. Gonzalez is currently 0-2 in the UFC since debuting against Jim Miller in 2021. Gonzalez did not do well and started the resurgent run for Miller when the future Hall of Famer knocked him out in the second round. After that, he would take on the rising star Terrance McKinney and fell victim by submission. He did not look good in the fight; he looked scared and as if he was waiting for the inevitable ending. On the other hand, Peek is not someone who came into the UFC to collect a check. The Alabama native is undefeated as a professional and has yet to go past the second round in any fight. All of his wins have come via knockout or referee stoppage, and in this matchup, I don’t see it going any other way. Gonzalez is obviously talented and has experience in the octagon. Still, I think he needs more confidence to perform at the highest levels. The UFC is the dream for all fighters when they begin their journey, but once at the mountaintop, what brought you there may not be enough to keep you there; This may very well be the story of Gonzalez. With wins over former UFC contenders like Khama Worthy, Peek has been ready for the ufc for some time now. This weekend, he will find another finish and continue to prove why he belongs. Peek will win by KO and hopefully collect a bonus check for his troubles. The money line is already passed where I would like it, so I will go with a prop for this fight and put Peeks’s money line price in a parlay.
Bet: Trevor Peek by KO/TKO or submission -130
Prelims
Leavitt vs. Martinez Odds
Jordan Leavitt -115; Victor Martinez -105
This should be a solid striker vs. grappler matchup. Leavitt is the grappler, as that has been the story since “The Monkey King” first graced the octagon, subbed his opponent and then twerked. Since I first watched the tape on Leavitt, I’ve always thought his grappling skills are legitimate and creative, even hitting an inverted triangle to beat Matt Sayles in 2021. Still, things can go south for Leavitt in many ways; Claudio Puelles outwrestled and neutralized him, and Paddy Pimblett did the same in his most recent fight in July. Leavitt has worked to round out his striking skills and added an interesting kicking game to keep his opponents at a distance the way a boxer uses his jab. It will be interesting to see how he does against the newcomer Martinez, who will undoubtedly hunt for the knockout. “The Brick” Martinez is a well-rounded fighter content to stand and strike on the feet for the win. He showed some solid wrestling defense in earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021. Still, he does make minor mistakes, like giving his back up when standing up. His opponent on the Contender Series may have yet to capitalize on the mistakes, but Leavitt will. Leavitt also has the experience at the highest level of the sport, which helps when fighting a debutant.
Bet: Jordan Leavitt ML -118/Leavitt by submission +200
Johnson vs. Osbourne Odds
Charles Johnson -165; Ode Osbourne +135
Charles Johnson has kept a busy schedule since joining the UFC, as this makes it his third fight in the last 10 UFC cards. A former track star, “InnerG” is a natural athlete with solid size for the flyweight division. He is skilled and fights behind a calculated pressure game that sometimes looks unimpressive until he finds a finish. After impressively surviving three rounds against superstar prospect Muhammad Mokaev in his UFC debut, Johnson picked up the pace in his two UFC wins since fighting mokaev. He went to war against Zhalgas Zhumagulov and then found a quick finish over Jimmy Flick in the first UFC fight of 2023. He is stepping in on late notice against Osbourne at a 130-pound catchweight, again showing that he stays ready for a challenge. Osbourne joined the UFC as a dynamic striker and athlete in 2019 via Dana White’s Contender Series. Then a bantamweight, “The Jamaican Sensation,” had the size and speed to pull out a dynamic finish seemingly out of nowhere. Still, he was just as capable of putting himself in danger and getting caught. Since moving to the flyweight division, Osbourne has found a more practical approach with a sniping style that takes advantage of his reach. Still, like most Osbourne fights, he can find an electric finish while leaving himself open to an opponent with sharp counters, like Johnson. Osbourne could still wind up outpacing Johnson. However, because Johnson can match Osbourne’s reach and usually finds a way to break his opponents, this figures to turn in favor of Johnson, and he may even possibly find a finish.
Bet: Charles Johnson ML -165
Aliev vs. Alves Odds
Nurullo Aliev -190; Rafael Alves +155
The hype behind Aliev may be getting out of control. Still, he is a prospect to watch, as the first fighter out of Tajikistan has shown to be a high-level wrestler. His wrestling has even been compared to the former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Perhaps a bit premature considering this being his debut, But Rafael Alves should be a strong test and indication of where Aliev is at the moment, as “The Turn” provides an extremely dangerous matchup. Alves is a powerful athlete who has yet to develop much variety in his game. Instead, Alves leans on his athleticism to explode and mostly looks to counter the strikes coming his way. While his only UFC win to date has come by guillotine choke on Marc Diakiese, he impressed the ufc brass when he fought Damir Ismagulov and Drew Dober in some exciting fights that he ultimately lost; Alves probably has a number next to his name and is fighting somewhere higher up the card if the previous fights go his way. This fight is a coin flip to many, as Aliev is still only making his debut. Alves’s fights are usually a war of attrition if they don’t end early. Alves will look to derail Aliev’s hype train emphatically or eventually tire out from the pressure put on by the Taijk Eagle. Alves is a good fighter and very capable of winning this fight. Still, if he comes out too aggressive and over-extends himself, he will play into the game plan of Aliev and possibly get finished.
Bet: Nurullo Aliev ML -175/Aliev by points +185
