Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 49 in Las Vegas. Following an exciting fight night card with many finishes last week, we have another fun little card that is lower level but should be exciting, nonetheless.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Carlos Hernandez vs. Victor Altamirano
Hernandez, -125; Altamirano, +105
In this matchup, we have two fighters both making their UFC debut fresh of Dana White’s Contender Series last season. Hernandez won a split decision over a respected prospect in Daniel Barez in October. He comes from a kickboxing background but is very well-rounded and has good cardio as well. He is currently on a seven-fight win streak with four of those wins coming by submission.
Altamirano got the nod in a controversial split-decision in his Contender Series fight in August. He fights at an extremely high pace and will throw many leg kicks while controlling the center of the octagon and pressuring his opponents. Additionally, he is an opportunistic grappler with unorthodox submission technique and has four submission victories as well. However, he fights with his hands down and eats way too many clean shots to ever make you feel comfortable. He also gets taken down easily and spends too much time playing guard on his back rather than working back to his feet.
Hernandez is going to eat some leg kicks here, but his ability to beat Altamirano to the punch along with his footwork and technical advantages should be the difference. Hernandez by decision is the official pick.
Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Michael Gillmore
Brahimaj, -350; Gillmore, +270
Brahimaj is looking to rebound quickly as we just saw him in the octagon last month when he dropped a decision to Court McGee. Brahimaj is not a prospect I am very excited about as he does not have many tools that translate at the UFC level. However, what he does have is an ability to get the fight to the mat when facing lower-level opposition and has solid submission skills once he gets it there. Of his nine career victories, all of them have come by submission and only one was outside of the first round. When he cannot get the fight to the mat then he is going to struggle at this level. Fortunately for him, he gets a cupcake matchup in Gillmore who is going to give him every opportunity to submit him.
I still do not understand why Gillmore was signed to the UFC but that’s beside the point. He is coming off a third-round TKO loss in his debut against TUF competitor, Andre Petroski. Gillmore has some solid leg kicks but outside of that, there is not much. What is most concerning is that he constantly gives up takedowns and has been submitted in three of his four career losses. His submission defense looked a little better against Petroski, but I still consider it to be a major leak in his game. Brahimaj by submission is the official pick.
Jonathan Martinez vs. Alejandro Perez
Martinez, -240; Perez, +195
Martinez is coming off a decision victory over Zviad Lazishvili in October. It is no secret that I do not put much faith in Martinez in general. However, he is a solid kickboxer with heavy leg kicks and will out strike many of the lower bantamweights in the division. But we want to fade him with high-paced strikers with good wrestling, and Perez does not fit either of those categories.
Perez is coming off a second-round submission over Johnny Eduardo in October. Perez is explosive and does have power in his hands, but he is low volume and has only landed four takedowns across 12 UFC fights. His durability is also a concern as well as he has been finished in five of his eight career losses, including two knockouts.
I expect him to stand and bang with Martinez and both guys have suspect durability, but I favor Martinez to be landing the cleaner shots throughout. Martinez by decision is the official pick but I would not be surprised to see someone get dropped in this fight.
Jinh Yu Frey vs. Hannah Goldy
Frey, -180; Goldy, +155
Frey is coming off a decision victory over Ashley Yoder in July. She is currently on a two-fight win streak after starting her UFC career 0-2. Despite the win streak, I still have very little faith in Frey, especially as a sizable favorite in any matchup. She comes from a Muay Thai background but is very low volume on the feet. She is capable of landing takedowns but rarely looks to and is liable to give up takedowns as well.
Goldy is coming off a first-round submission victory over Emily Whitmire in September, her first UFC victory. Goldy is another prospect who does not excite me whatsoever. She is primarily a one-dimensional boxer that is going to dance around the outside of the octagon and throw hooks along with her karate-style kicks. She is physically strong but not a very good grappler and will struggle against aggressive fighters looking to take her down.
Overall, this is an ugly fight and should be competitive which makes me think there is value on the underdog especially if Frey is willing to give her a striking match like I expect. In that scenario, I favor Goldy based on volume and aggression, but it is not a fight that I am looking to target either way. Goldy by decision is the official pick.
Fares Ziam vs. Terrance McKinney
Ziam, -120; McKinney, +100
McKinney is coming off an impressive first-round finish over Matt Frevola in his UFC debut in June at UFC 263 that took just seven seconds. He is an extremely explosive fighter with all 14 of his career fights ending inside the distance and just one of his last 10 fights having reached the second round. He has legitimate knockout power on the feet but also has a solid wrestling base with capable submission grappling once he gets his opponents down. His lack of defense along with his cardio being more of a question mark are the only real concerns with him moving forward.
Ziam is coming off a majority decision victory over Luigi Vendramini in June. He is a high-level kickboxer and clearly wants to keep the fight at range where he has his most success. He has shown some improvements with his takedown defense and defensive grappling but is still basically a one-dimensional striker who does not throw in volume despite being very technically sound.
This fight is easy to read — if McKinney wins, it likely comes by an early finish, and if Ziam wins, he likely takes over late and earns a late finish or decision. This makes me have much more interest on the McKinney side as his upside on DraftKings is significantly higher in a win, which makes him my preferred play, but I will have some exposure to Ziam as well. McKinney by submission is the official pick.
Josiane Nunes vs. Ramona Pascual
Nunes, -200; Pascual, +170
Nunes is coming off an impressive first-round knockout over Bea Malecki in her UFC debut in August. She is an 8-1 prospect, with her only loss coming against UFC contender Taila Santos back in 2013. Of her eight professional victories, seven of them have come by knockout and all of them came inside the first two rounds. She has real power for this division but if you can take her down then she struggles to defend off her back or work back to her feet.
Pascual is making her UFC debut on short notice and is coming off a first-round TKO victory in January. She is 6-2 with all but one of her fights ending inside the distance so I am expecting both of these ladies to bring the aggression on Saturday. She is going to be the bigger fighter as she typically fights at 145 pounds, and she is capable of landing takedowns as well if she can withstand the early storm from Nunes.
Surprisingly, I have decent interest in this fight for DraftKings for a couple reasons. For starters, women fights generally tend to be rostered less than men’s fights. But I also think the winner should score well here as both fighters have finishing upside and Pascual has wrestling upside if she does not get finished early. Nunes by knockout is the official pick but I consider Pascual a live underdog this week.
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Zhu Rong
Bahamondes, -210; Rong, +175
Bahamondes is coming off one of the best highlight-reel knockouts of last year with a spinning wheel kick victory over Roosevelt Roberts as the clock nearly expired. He is an electric striker who is very long for the division and uses his length with a variety of leg kicks. Outside of the high-level striking though, he is one-dimensional as he will not look to wrestle and can be taken down and out grappled as well.
Rong is coming off a third-round TKO victory over Brandon Jenkins in September. Rong is a product from the UFC performance institute in China and I am still not sure if he is ready to fight at this level. He has some power in his punches but most of his knockout wins came against some extremely low-level competition. He also struggled to get much offense going against Rodrigo Vargas in his UFC debut which is a red flag. The only real positive note on Rong is that he is capable and willing to land takedowns as he has landed nine takedowns through his two UFC bouts. That needs to be his game plan against Bahamondes or he will likely get knocked out.
I will have some exposure to him on DraftKings because I think he can land takedowns, so he does have a potential ceiling. But overall, I feel Bahamondes can keep the fight standing long enough to convincingly win rounds and possibly even hurt Rong on the feet. Bahamondes by knockout is the official pick.
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Armen Petrosyan
Rodrigues, -160; Petrosyan, +140
Rodrigues is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Jun Yong Park his last time out in October. He is currently on a four-fight win streak, two of which came in the UFC against Dusko Todorovic and the aforementioned Park fight. He is a massive fighter for this weight class and should have a size and strength advantage in this matchup. He has solid striking skills but will also look to mix in the takedowns and holds a black belt in BJJ. The concern with Rodriguez is his durability as he has been knocked out twice in his career and also his suspect cardio.
On the other hand, Petrosyan has good cardio and comes from a high-level striking background and is a former Muay Thai champion in Russia. He is just 6-1 professionally and all six wins have come by knockout. It is very clear in this matchup that he will need to keep the fight on the feet or continuously work back to his feet if Rodrigues keeps taking him down. Historically, he is very good at not accepting position and working back to his feet and I am not convinced that Rodrigues will be able to keep that grappling pace throughout the fight.
I expect Petrosyan to outlast him until he can clip him and get him out of there. Petrosyan by knockout is the official pick and he is one of my favorite underdogs to target this week on DraftKings.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez
Tsarukyan, -225; Alvarez, +185
Tsarukyan is coming off an impressive first-round knockout over Christos Giagos in September. Outside of his UFC debut against Islam Makhachev in early 2019, he has been near flawless through his next four bouts. He is very well-rounded and will look to land takedowns and control his opponents on the mat and has good enough cardio to do that for the full 15 minutes if needed.
Alvarez is coming off a first-round knockout over Thiago Moises in November. He is now on a four-fight win streak with three of those four wins coming inside the first round. He is a good submission grappler and has been improving his striking over the last couple years. He is also very big for the division, but I still think he will be spending extended periods of time on his back in this matchup. Tsarukyan is going to look for takedowns and Alvarez is more than willing to play guard off his back.
I expect Tsarukyan to earn lots of top time in this matchup and outside of getting submitted from guard he cruises in this matchup. Tsarukyan by decision is the official pick.
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Kim, -165; Cachoeira, +145
Kim is coming off a decision loss to Molly McCann in September. She has now lost three of her last four fights and will look to get back in the win column Saturday against Priscila Cachoeira. Kim is long for the division and will have a seven-inch reach advantage in this matchup. However, she struggles to maintain distance and use her length to an advantage and that has hurt her in multiple previous fights. She puts up decent volume offensively but does not move her head off the center line and will eat many punches clean. That could be a problem against a powerful striker like Cachoeira.
Cachoeira struggles against fighters that can take her down and will out grapple her. But Kim has never landed a takedown in the UFC or attempted any submission across seven UFC fights. I expect this to be a competitive striking match where Kim is likely landing more volume, but Cachoeria is landing the more impactful shots and has the potential to hurt Kim as well. That gives me more interest in the underdog as she has more upside on DraftKings. Kim by decision is the official pick but I doubt I will have any exposure to her on DraftKings.
Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman
Cirkunov, -120; Turman, +100
Cirkunov is coming off a split-decision loss against Krzstof Jotko in October and is now on a two-fight losing skid. Cirkunov has always had the skills to be a force in the UFC with dangerous submission grappling and competent striking to back it up. However, the durability is a major concern with him as he has been knocked out in four of his seven losses and all of them came inside the first round. He simply cannot take damage well which makes him untrustworthy in almost any matchup.
Turman has a similar negative attribute in that he is also very fragile. He has only been knocked out twice in his career, but they were brutal knockouts, and he has been hurt multiple times throughout his career. He is a black belt on the mat and should be able to compete in the grappling exchanges and possibly even have the edge due to cardio as the fight goes on.
But overall, this is a fight that is extremely high variance as we have two untrustworthy fighters that seemingly always find a way to get hurt in their fights. For that reason, I will have exposure to both sides on DraftKings as I do not have a strong lean either way, but I expect the winner to score well. Turman by knockout is the official pick.
Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
Makhachev, -900; Green, +600
Ladies and gentlemen, we are in for a treat this weekend as Green is stepping up on short notice to save the main event as Beneil Dariush was forced out of his fight due to injury. We just saw Green put on a boxing clinic over Nasrat Haqparast just two weeks ago. Green is an excellent boxer with fast hands and great footwork, and he should have a clear striking advantage in this matchup. But the obvious concern is how long he can keep the fight standing, as Makhachev has that notorious Dagestan pressure wrestling and will look to smother Green from the start.
Makhachev is one of the toughest dudes in the division and many people have him pegged as a future champ because of his excellent ground game. But this is a massive price to pay against a good fighter like Green who has never been submitted across 18 UFC fights. I do expect Makhachev to be successful in getting takedowns early but if he cannot submit Green early then there is a window for Green to win this fight. If Green can keep working back to his feet where we know he has the advantage and likely a cardio edge as well then, he can make this much more competitive than these prices indicate.
My head still thinks Makhachev smothers him to a decision, but my heart says Green gets the knockout victory for the boys. Either way, this is a main event that you want exposure to in likely all of your lineups.
