Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 48. Following an exciting fight night card with many finishes last week, we have another fun little card that is lower level but should be exciting nonetheless.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Mario Bautista vs. Jay Perrin
Bautista, -280; Perrin, +220
Bautista is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Trevin Jones his last time out at UFC 259 last March. Bautista trains out of MMA lab and is a well-rounded fighter capable of being competitive wherever the fight goes. He typically likes to keep it on the feet and use his pressuring high-volume based approach. That should be the gameplan here as well as he will have a clear striking advantage over UFC newcomer Perrin.
Perrin got the call on short notice and will make his UFC debut this Saturday. He previously fought on Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2019 but lost the fight and has since rebounded with back-to-back victories. He is an aggressive fighter and will likely look to land takedowns, but he is very sloppy and his level of competition is considerably lower than UFC caliber.
Bautista likely cruises here and wins a dominant decision finds a finish if Perrin gets sloppy or gasses out. Bautista by submission is the official pick.
Jonathan Pearce vs. Christian Rodriguez
Pearce, -335; Rodriguez, +260
Pearce was originally scheduled to fight Austin Lingo, who pulled out and will be replaced by Rodriguez. Rodriguez is stepping in on just seven days’ notice and will make his UFC debut. He is a 7-0 undefeated prospect that previously fought on Dana White’s Contender Series with a decision victory over Junior Cortez in October. He also fought just a month ago on the regional scene and earned a first-round submission victory. He trains out of Roufusport gym in Wisconsin and has a decently well-rounded skillset although has not been tested much in terms of competition. This is a massive step up for him against Pearce, who is much more proven at this stage and should have an advantage wherever the fight goes.
Pearce is a liability at times because of how reckless he is on defense, but I have a hard time seeing the youngster make him pay for it here. Pearce should be moving forward and pressuring and be able to land multiple takedowns and wear on Rodriguez until he breaks. Pearce by TKO is the official pick.
Chad Anheliger vs. Jesse Strader
Anheliger, -290; Strader, +230
Anheliger is making his UFC debut fresh off a win on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. After starting his career 2-5, he has now won nine straight fights including a win over Brady Hiestand (The Ultimate Fighter) along with the Contender Series win over a respected opponent in Muin Gafurov. Despite the win streak, I still have some concerns with Anheliger moving forward. For starters, he fights with his hands low and eats a ton of clean punches on the feet. Additionally, he typically does not throw in high volume and struggles to defend takedowns, so it is tough to rely on him to win minutes. While he does have some finishing power, I am not convinced that will translate to the UFC level as many of those opponents were gassed and he had some ‘come from behind’ victories.
Strader is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Montel Jackson last March, which was his only UFC fight. He has some good leg kicks and will look to spam them early in this fight and should be winning the minutes striking if he is able to not get hurt. Strader leaves himself wide open for counters and gets very sloppy in the pocket which is a big red flag against someone like Anheliger who is solid in the clinch and will look to use his knees there. However, I cannot justify Anheliger being a big favorite over anyone at the UFC level, even Strader. Outside of getting himself knocked out, Strader should be able to be competitive on the feet and possibly mix in a few takedowns as well.
I consider Strader a live underdog in what should be a very sloppy fight. Ultimately though, Strader is liable to get hurt or stick his neck out there and Anheliger has a solid guillotine that he can finish with here. Anheliger by submission is the official pick but I will have some exposure to both sides on DraftKings with a decent lean toward Strader for the price alone.
Diana Belbita vs. Gloria De Paula
Belbita, -110; De Paula, -110
Belbita is coming off a decision victory over Hannah Goldy her last time out in July. She is 1-2 in the UFC and I’m honestly not sure what to think of her at this point. On one hand, she is an aggressive striker that will throw in volume and occasionally mix in some takedowns. On the other hand, her technique is sloppy at times due to her being overly aggressive and her losing 30-25 to Molly McCann is not a good look.
De Paula is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Cheyanne Vlismas last July. She is currently 0-2 in the UFC and will likely see her walking papers if she loses this fight. De Paula is a powerful striker but is very one-dimensional. She struggles to defend takedowns and will play guard rather than work back to her feet. She could be competitive in a striking match against Belbita here, but I expect Belbita to throw more volume and have the better gas tank.
If either were to land a takedown, I would expect it to come from Belbita, as she is generally more aggressive and has looked to mix in the wrestling in the past. Belbita by decision is the official pick.
Chas Skelly vs. Mark Striegl
Skelly, -220; Striegl, +180
Skelly is coming off nearly a 2.5-year layoff since his 2019 win over Jordan Griffin. He was scheduled to fight in February of last year, but his opponent, Jamall Emmers, got injured backstage and the fight was canceled. At nearly 37 years old, Skelly’s best days are clearly behind him, but he does still have his collegiate wrestling base and slick grappling as well. although Striegl may be able to negate some of those ground game skills of Skelly in this matchup.
Striegl also focuses on the mat as he is a former Sambo gold medalist at the 2019 Southeast Asian games and 14 of his 18 victories have come by submission. He made his UFC debut in October of 2020 but was knocked out in under a minute by Said Nurmagomedov. I expect to see a ton of grappling in this fight as that is what both guys are trying to do and neither of them have much in the striking department. Skelly is a more technical grappler, but the age and athleticism are both advantages for Striegl.
Bottom line is that Skelly is going to have to prove it to me that he deserves to be a big favorite at this stage in his career against a competent opponent and coming off the long layoff. I am siding with the underdog in Striegl and will be overweight to the field on DraftKings.
Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Stephanie Egger
Clark, -190; Egger, +160
Jessica-Rose Clark is coming off a dominant performance over Joselyne Edwards in October. She is currently on a two-fight win streak and will look to make it a third as she faces off against Judo specialist Egger.
Egger is coming off a second-round TKO victory over Shana Young her last time out in October. She is tall and lanky for the division but her striking is still improving and she has not fully grasped how to use that length advantage yet. Where she excels is in the clinch and when she is able to get on top off her opponents on the mat.
I am not sure if she will be able to land takedowns against Clark, who should have the strength advantage and the ability to keep it standing for the most part. I side with Clark to get the decision win but there are better fights to target this week on DraftKings.
David Onama vs. Gabriel Benitez
Onama, -150; Benitez, +130
Onama is coming off a very entertaining fight against Mason Jones in October where he made his UFC debut on just three days’ notice and gave Jones one hell of a fight. He is an 8-1 prospect training out of Glory MMA with head coach, James Krause. He is typically more of a finisher as he earned a stoppage victory in his eight previous fights before facing off against Jones. He has power in his hands and seems to have good cardio if he needs to go 15 minutes. The biggest concerns with Onama are that he cannot defend takedowns and he head hunts too much.
Fortunately for him, Benitez is not likely to look for takedowns, so I expect to see a kickboxing match here. Benitez is a technical kickboxer but has shown time and time again that he does not deal well with opponents that will move forward and pressure him. While he should be competitive in the striking, I expect Onama to be the aggressor and landing the more powerful shots. Onama by KO is the official pick.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Buckley, -145; Alhassan, +125
Buckley is coming off a third-round knockout victory over Antonio Arroyo in September. He is now 3-2 in the UFC with all three of those wins coming by knockout and that is clearly what he is looking to do in all his fights. Outside of the big power, there is not much to worry about when facing Buckley as he is fairly one-dimensional. Now he is facing a similar opponent in Alhassan, who wants to keep the fight standing and land powerful shots.
Alhassan has been exposed over his last few fights as someone who does not deal well when forced to defensively wrestle and exert energy. If you can wear on him and extend him into the later rounds, then a lot of his power is negated. However, he is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Alessio Di Chirico, and both guys will likely be hunting heads for the first-round knockout here.
This is a high-variance fight where either guy can win by knockout, but I will lean toward the underdog for the savings in price. Alhassan by knockout is the official pick but I will have some exposure to both sides on DraftKings.
Nikolas Motta vs. Jim Miller
Motta, -180; Miller, +155
Motta is making his UFC debut and was originally supposed to face Jim Miller back in September of last year, but Miller was forced to pull out due to COVID-19. He is an exciting prospect with a 12-3 record and eight of those wins have come by knockout. He fought on Dana White’s Contender Series last season and won a decision, but the power is clearly there. However, his defensively wrestling and grappling will be tested by veteran Miller, and I am not convinced that he can pass those tests.
Miller is coming off a second-round KO victory over Erick Gonzalez in October, but we know it is his grappling that makes him so dangerous. I do not expect him to come in here and try to throw hands with Motta for very long. He should look to get this fight to the ground where he should have a sizable advantage.
This is a great fight to target on DraftKings as a Motta victory likely means an early knockout, but I am siding with Jim Miller who should give him the veteran lesson and display that solid ground game on his way to a finish. Jim Miller by submission is the official pick.
Parker Porter vs. Alan Baudot
Porter, -255; Baudot, +205
Porter is coming off an impressive victory over Chase Sherman where he landed 149 significant strikes, which is an excellent pace for the Heavyweight division. Porter is not the most skilled fighter, but he should win a lot of matchups at the lower levels of the division based on volume and cardio alone.
He should have a clear striking advantage over Baudot, as Baudot does not belong in the UFC. Baudot is coming off a loss to Rodrigo Nascimento which was later deemed a no contest and has yet to win in the UFC and I do not believe he will.
Porter has an advantage wherever the fight goes, and I expect him to win convincingly here outside of a lucky punch from Baudot. Porter by TKO is the official pick.
Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett
Daukaus, -275; Pickett, +220
Daukaus is coming off an unfortunate no-contest in what should have been a victory over Kevin Holland in his last fight. I rate Daukaus ability higher than the market and this is a very favorable matchup for him. He is going to have a clear striking advantage over Pickett and will be throwing more volume as well. Daukaus is also likely to land a takedown or two in this fight and is the better submission grappler on the mat. He wins this fight wherever the fight goes although he does have a wide range of outcomes in terms of his upside on DraftKings.
Pickett is coming off a decision win over Joseph Holmes just one month ago. After backing him twice as an underdog and coming through, it is time to hop off the Pickett train. He is outclassed wherever the fight goes, and I do not see his low-volume cage push approach working against Daukaus like it did in his previous two matchups. Daukaus by decision is the official pick.
Jamahal Hill vs. Johnny Walker
Hill, -250; Walker, +200
Hill is coming off an impressive first-round knockout over Jimmy Crute in December. He is 9-1 with five knockout victories and his only loss being the submission loss to Paul Craig where his arm looked like Jell-O after snapping. He will face off against Walker in this week’s main event in what should be a banger of a fight.
After coming in hot in the UFC with three straight knockout victories, the Walker hype train was derailed by Corey Anderson, and Walker has now lost three of his last four fights. It is obvious Walker will always have that explosive early power and freak athleticism. However, his durability is a major concern as he has been hurt multiple times and knocked out in three of his losses. He also has shown a massive dip in his aggressiveness and willing to go for the knockout early which was one of his best assets.
This is a high-variance fight where either guy can win by knockout, but I am siding with Hill who should have more volume, better cardio and better durability. Hill by knockout is the official pick.
