UFC Vegas 48 Betting Breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC Vegas 48: Hill vs. Walker

After an action-packed PPV last weekend, the UFC continues its run of eight straight weeks with a live event this Saturday night. This week, the biggest promotion in MMA returns to the Apex facility in Las Vegas for a 12-fight slate. In the main event, light heavyweights will take center stage as Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill will step up to the plate in a replacement main event following the cancelation of the original main event between Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos. This is certainly not a stacked week of fights on paper, but I have made eight bets and think there are a few fun spots to attack on this slate. You can find all my plays for free in the FTN Bet Tracker.

I’ll be writing this column weekly, with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early preliminaries this weekend to answer any questions that readers might have. We’d love to continue building the community through Discord. 

If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.

Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Stephanie Egger Odds

Rose-Clark -170, Egger +150, DraftKings Sportsbook

Rose-Clark is coming off back-to-back victories over Sarah Alpar and Joselyne Edwards heading into Saturday night, with a chance to win three straight inside the UFC octagon for the first time in her career. Stylistically, JRC had historically been primarily a striker throughout the beginning of her UFC career, but she has clearly been working on her wrestling and landed a career-high five takedowns in her last matchup. That said, I’m not sure how well JRC’s takedown attempts will fair against better wrestlers than Edwards. 

Egger dropped her UFC debut in a wrestling-heavy matchup against Tracy Cortez where the Swiss fighter was neutralized for the entirety of the matchup. However, Egger was victorious her last time out with a finish over Shanna Young. Egger has a background in Judo and although her striking is very elementary for this level, she does use her jab well in an effort to use her length. 

Before diving deep into this matchup, I was fairly confident in Clark getting the job done, but as the week has gone on I’ve cooled on that take a bit. While I’m still picking the more experienced and well-rounded fighter here, Egger has a chance to remain competitive both in the grappling with her judo skills and in the striking with her reach advantage. That said, I think the best bet on this fight is a “no-violence bet” aka Fight Goes the Distance. Rose-Clark has been the distance in five of her six UFC fights with her only finish over a bottom-barrel opponent in Sarah Alpar. A similar case can be made for Egger’s tendency to go the distance as her only UFC finish is against a low-level fighter as well. Additionally and potentially most importantly, neither of these women have ever been finished in their professional career. I think we see a competitive 15 minutes here. 

Bet

• Jessica-Rose Clark/Stephanie Egger Fight GOES The Distance -170 1.5x until -185, 1x until -205

Joaquin Buckley vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan Odds

Buckley -165, Alhassan +145, DraftKings Sportsbook

Buckley has provided plenty of entertainment through his first five fights inside the UFC, as all of them have ended by knockout. In that span, Buckley is 3-2 including a Knockout of The Year effort against Impa Kasanganay. Buckley carries a ton of power in all four of his limbs and has shown some wrestling ability inside the octagon as well. That said, he does have a tendency to brawl with his opponents and Buckley doesn’t have the best durability with a chin that’s been cracked before.

Abdul Razak Alhassan is one of the most straightforward fighters on the current UFC-roster to handicap. I often think that people in the MMA space use terms such as “knockout or bust” too often and that there are more outcomes than people consider for each fight, but Alhassan is truly a two-outcome fighter. All five of his UFC wins have come via knockout in round one as Alhassan has unquantifiable fight-ending power in his right hand. However, Alhassan is 0-3 in fights that leave round one and he’s never won a round in the UFC on my scorecards. His cardio is very poor and Alhassan has very few paths to win minutes during fights outside of his knockouts.

I do think Alhassan is live in this fight as both of these men are content to hang in the pocket and swing until both men fall. However, if this fight gets extended, I think Buckley becomes a clear favorite. He is the busier striker, more competent MMA grappler, and possesses a big cardio advantage. Therefore, instead of getting involved on the moneyline for this fight, I’ve elected to play Buckley in the Decision-Only market. There’s a good chance my bet gets refunded here if either man finishes inside the distance, but I feel very good about a pick ‘em ticket on Buckley should this fight go the distance. 

Bet

• Joaquin Buckley DECISION ONLY (If Finish No Action) -115 2x until -122, 1.5x until -135, 1x until -150. 

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Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett Odds

Daukaus -300, Pickett +235, DraftKings Sportsbook

Daukaus has had a weird start to his UFC career as he has just one win in four octagon appearances, but his performances have deserved better results. In his UFC debut, Daukaus lost a close fight to a very difficult fighter in Brendan Allen. Then Daukaus was given a “No Contest” in his last fight after it appeared he had submitted Kevin Holland for the biggest win of his career, but the result was overturned due to a clash of heads that led to the fight-ending sequence. In totality, Daukaus is a well-rounded fighter who tends to rely on his grappling a lot but also has good output with his hands. Daukaus’ only poor performance inside the UFC so far came against Phil Hawes, where Daukas gassed out and faded down the stretch of that fight, but I credit that more to Hawes’ wrestling and physicality than I do fault Daukaus for the loss. 

Pickett dropped his first two UFC fights and at one time it appeared as if he wasn’t long for the promotion, but he has put together two solid performances as a betting underdog against Laureano Starapoli and Joseph Holmes to even his UFC record at 2-2. Pickett has the tools to be a decent fighter: he’s strong, has solid cardio and a wrestling background. However, he is very underwhelming inside the cage. Pickett has landed just three strikes per minute while averaging under two takedowns per fight inside the UFC. Additionally, this is a matchup that he is taking on short notice after competing just over 30 days ago. 

This is just a spot where I think we have a discounted price on the much better fighter in Daukaus. If Daukaus’ last fight was ruled a victory over Kevin Holland, there would be no way this line would ever dip below -300. The largest advantage in this fight should be Daukaus’ Jiu-Jitsu which is very strong in comparison to Pickett’s. I also favor Daukaus on the feet. Although Pickett may hit harder and has shown some ability to use his body kick and blitz opponents, Daukaus’ boxing is crisp and underrated. I do see some scenarios where a lot of this fight is fought in the clinch, but there just aren’t many positions between these two where I think Pickett is live to win minutes. Laying the chalk should pay off in this spot. 

Bet

• Kyle Daukaus -215 1x until -230