Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 47 in Las Vegas. Following a week break, it is always fun to get back on the grind and have fights to look forward to every weekend.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Denys Bondar vs. Malcolm Gordon
Bondar, -240; Gordon, +195
Bondar is making his UFC debut after having three bouts canceled last year. He last fought in August of 2020 and is coming into this fight currently on a 10-fight win streak. He is a finisher by nature, with 14 career wins all coming inside the distance and 11 in the first round. He is more of a grappler but is willing to close distance and swing heavy shots in the pocket.
Gordon is coming off his first UFC victory against Francisco Figueiredo his last time out in July. Gordon comes from a striking background and holds a black belt in BJJ. However, he is extremely fragile and cannot be trusted in any matchup. When he strikes for extended periods, he is at a major risk of being hurt on the feet. He has been knocked out four times in his career and has been finished in all his losses.
I am not super high on Bondar as a prospect, but at the lower levels of the division he should be able to get a few finishes and that starts with Gordon this weekend. Bondar by TKO is the official pick although a club-and-sub is certainly live as well. He is a high upside play this week on DraftKings.
Jailton Almeida vs. Danilo Marques
Almeida, -400; Marques, +300
Almeida is coming off an impressive performance on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. He will be making his UFC debut this weekend and is currently on a nine-fight win streak. He is a very powerful athlete and holds a black belt in BJJ with nine of his 14 career wins coming by submission.
Marques is coming off a third-round knockout loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu in a fight he was likely winning up to that point. Marques has an uphill battle in this matchup as he will clearly be at a striking advantage against Almeida. Additionally, Marques’ typical game plan is to stick to his opponents like glue and try wear them down with his grappling but should have trouble out muscling Almeida in the grappling exchanges. Not to mention, Marques has notoriously bad cardio as well.
Almeida is getting a bit too much respect as the UFC newcomer, but it’s mostly warranted in this matchup. Almeida by TKO is the official pick.
Alexis Davis vs. Julia Stoliarenko
Davis, -225; Stoliarenko, +175
Davis is coming off a decision loss to Pannie Kianzad her last time out in June. She has now lost four of her last five fights and turns 38 later this year so the optics could certainly be better for Davis. However, this is a good bounce back spot for her as she likely has Stoliarenko covered in every area.
Stoliarenko is essentially early armbar submission or bust and while that worked on the regional scene for her, I doubt it does against the BJJ black belt in Davis. Davis likely wins the striking exchanges and earns top position throughout the 15 minutes. Davis by decision is the official pick but there are better fighters to target in her price range this week on DraftKings.
Phil Rowe vs. Jason Witt
Rowe, -155; Witt, +135
Rowe is coming off a second-round knockout win over Orion Cosce back in July. All eight of his career wins have come inside the distance although he does not have much of a killer instinct or good fight IQ. He is decently well-rounded but is generally sloppy and typically doesn’t use his length as well as he should. Fortunately for him, he is facing Witt, who is likely going to beg him to knock him out.
Witt has a strong wrestling base but his durability is a major red flag as he has been knocked out five times in his career and is way too comfortable in striking exchanges rather than urgently looking to grapple. I expect this to be a sloppy back and forth fight where Witt likely has some early wrestling success but gets hurt at some point in the fight.
Regardless, this is an excellent fight to target on DraftKings as I expect the winner to score very well so I’ll have exposure to both sides in the mid-range with a moderate lean toward Rowe. Rowe by knockout is the official pick.
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Chidi Njokuani
Barriault, -120; Njokuani, +100
Barriault is coming off a decision victory over Dalcha Lungiambula his last time out in September. He is primarily a striker by nature and has really pushed more of a pace his last few times in the octagon, which is encouraging. Nine of his 13 wins have come by knockout, and he will likely look to keep this a striking match and land something heavy.
Njokuani is coming off a dominant victory on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. He is a battle tested veteran that has spent the majority of his career fighting in Bellator facing some respectable competition. He is primarily a striker as well and although his grappling is still a concern, it is not much of a factor in this matchup. He is lanky for the division and will have a six-inch reach advantage over Barriault in this matchup. He has quick hands and nasty knees in the clinch which will likely be his biggest advantage.
I expect this to be a competitive striking match where both guys land volume and we see some clinching against the fence. The cardio and durability edge are clearly in favor of Barriault and I expect the striking to be close either way. Barriault by decision is the official pick.
Hakeem Dawodu vs. Mike Trizano
Dawodu, -170; Trizano, +150
Dawodu is coming off a decision loss to Movsar Evloev last June. That loss snapped a five-fight win streak for the Canadian striker. Dawodu is a technical kickboxer with fast hands and should have a striking advantage over Trizano in this matchup. Dawodu’s defensive grappling is likely his biggest weakness, but he has always been good at working back to his feet and Trizano rarely looks to wrestle anyway.
Trizano has a striking background as well, but he will be at a clear speed and footwork disadvantage along with volume as well. I do not expect any blowout type rounds but feel Dawodu wins comfortably in what should be mainly a kickboxing match. Dawodu by decision is the official pick.
Miles Johns vs. John Casteneda
Johns, -220; Casteneda, +180
Johns is coming off a third-round knockout over Anderson Dos Santos in August. He is 12-1 professionally with six wins coming by decision. He has a solid wrestling base despite not using it much in the UFC outside of his Dana White’s Contender Series fight in 2019. Additionally, he has some sharp boxing and legitimate power for the bantamweight division.
Casteneda is coming off a first-round knockout over Eddie Wineland in February of last year. Despite the recent knockout victory, I am not particularly high on Casteneda’s skill set. He’s an okay striker and is proven to be durable but he struggles to defend takedowns and is typically losing striking exchanges.
I expect Johns to be the better boxer of the two despite the five-inch reach disadvantage. He should be able to get inside and land the bigger shots along with mixing in some takedowns and control time if he chooses. Johns by decision is the official pick.
Julian Erosa vs. Steven Peterson
Erosa, -280; Peterson, +225
Erosa is coming off a third-round submission victory over Charles Jourdain in September and has now won four of his last five fights. He is a finisher by nature as 23 of his 26 career wins have come inside the distance. He is a good grappler and can hurt you on the feet as well. The biggest issue with Erosa is his durability as he has been knocked out five times in his career and is always at risk to get stung on the feet.
Peterson is coming off a decision victory over Chase Hooper in June. Peterson is typically not a great minute winner but always an entertaining fighter. He fights at a high pace and is always looking to land a big shot or try to pull off a submission even when it’s not the smartest move.
I expect Erosa to have the grappling advantage over Peterson so Peterson will likely need to hurt him on the feet, which is possible but could be his only path to victory. Erosa by decision is the official pick but I will have exposure to both sides as a finish on either side would not surprise me.
Tresean Gore vs. Bryan Battle
Gore, -160; Battle, +140
In this matchup, we have two guys fresh off this season of the Ultimate Fighter. Gore unfortunately had to pull out from the finale due to injury, and Battle went on to win. Gore is a striker with fast hands and heavy leg kicks. He should have a clear striking advantage over Battle to go along with speed and footwork.
Battle is decently well-rounded but does not throw much volume in striking exchanges and typically lets his opponents dictate the pace of the fight. He is more of a “grit” style fighter than skill but that can only take you so far. I have concerns with Gore but not so much in this matchup as I expect him to keep the fight at range and win minutes with a chance to hurt Battle on the feet. Gore by decision is the official pick
Brendan Allen vs. Sam Alvey
Allen, -375; Alvey, +305
Allen is stepping in on just a few days’ notice to face Alvey after Phil Hawes withdrew from the fight. Allen is coming off a knockout loss in December to Chris Curtis. Allen is a dangerous submission grappler and that is clearly his best path to victory in this matchup. However, Alvey has historically been difficult to take down and hold down and Allen has been more than willing to brawl on the feet in recent bouts. He should still win this fight comfortably but will likely make it harder than it needs to be. Allen by submission is the official pick.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris
Rakhmonov, -235; Harris, +190
Rakhmonov is coming off a second-round submission victory over Michel Prazeres in June. He is a 14-0 prospect with all 14 of his wins coming inside the distance. He clearly has finishing potential with his knockout ability on the feet or his submission skills on the mat. However, the cardio is still untested as he has had just one career fight reach the third round. Additionally, I still have questions about his minute winning ability if the finishes don’t continue to materialize as he moves up in competition.
Harris is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Impa Kasaganay in September and is currently on a five-fight win streak. Harris is an aggressive fighter who will look to land big shots before taking his opponents down and running them through his submission series. He is a dangerous grappler and has never been submitted in his career he could potentially stuff Rakhmonov in that area making this an interesting matchup.
Harris is a durable fighter and should have the cardio advantage if the fight last 15 minutes. Additionally, I favor Harris to be more active and be the better minute winner in this matchup. Both fighters can finish the fight and I expect this to be a high pace making it a great fight to target on DraftKings. I will have more exposure to the underdog until they start putting more respect on Harris’ name. Harris by decision is the official pick.
Punahele Soriano vs. Nick Maximov
Soriano, -190; Maximov, +160
Fresh off the first loss in his professional career, Soriano will look to get back in the win column after dropping a decision to Brendan Allen last July. Soriano is a powerful striker with five of his eight career wins coming by knockout and all of which came inside the first round. He has mixed in some wrestling as well at times, but it is primarily his heavy left hand that you have to worry about. The key in this matchup is how well he can defend the takedowns as that will clearly be the gameplan of Maximov.
Maximov comes from a high-level wrestling background and is a dangerous submission grappler as well. He is just 7-0 and still has some ways to go with his cardio and striking but he has the tools to win at the UFC level if he can put it all together. I have some concerns with Maximov if he is unable to get Soriano to the ground as Soriano will have a clear striking advantage on the feet. Lastly, Maximov’s cardio has looked suspect in the past, but Soriano is not exactly a cardio machine himself.
Overall, I favor Soriano to keep the fight on the feet and hurt Maximov or out strike him to a decision victory. I will still have exposure to Maximov on DraftKings as his path to victory is heavily involving takedowns and grappling. Soriano by knockout is the official pick.
Sean Strickland vs. Jack Hermansson
Strickland, -200; Hermansson, +170
Strickland is coming off a main event win over Uriah Hall last July where he landed nearly 200 significant strikes to go along with four takedowns. Strickland is currently on a five-fight win streak and is showing no signs of slowing down inside the octagon or on the microphone. He is a technical striker with strong boxing skills and has shown good durability throughout his career as well. More importantly, he is a cardio machine and will likely be talking smack all 25 minutes if the fight last that long.
Hermansson is coming off a decision victory over Edmen Shahbazyan last May. He is an opportunistic grappler and averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes but is facing someone who has great takedown defense and has never been submitted in his career. Lastly, Hermansson is going to be at a clear cardio disadvantage and has had a suspect chin as well.
Strickland covers his price here clearly and is a solid option on DraftKings as well. Strickland by KO is the official pick.
