Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 44 in Las Vegas. Having a one-week break is always nice, but I am itching for some fights Saturday.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Louis Smolka vs. Vince Morales
Smolka, -140; Morales, +120, DraftKings Sportsbook
Smolka is coming off a second-round TKO victory over Jose Quinonez in December of last year. Smolka has always had a decent skillset as he has power on the feet, with eight of his 17 wins coming by knockout. He will also mix in the takedowns and opportunistic ground game at times with seven submission victories as well. The biggest issue with Smolka is his footwork and striking defense as he often stumbles into boxing range and eats some clean shots. Lastly, despite having an advantage on the mat, he is not reliable to always use that advantage which is another concern.
I have historically been lower on Morales than the market as he is a one-dimensional striker who is easy to read. Morales is a technical boxer but does not do much outside of his boxing and when he cannot find his range then he really struggles. Additionally, he has always struggled to defend takedowns at just 50% which should be a key factor in this matchup.
I expect the striking to be competitive with both guys landing shots, but it is the takedown and grappling upside that makes me favor Smolka in this matchup. For that reason, he has the higher ceiling on DraftKings as well, so he is my preferred target. Smolka by submission is the official pick.
Alex Morono vs. Mickey Gall
Morono, -220; Gall, +180, DraftKings Sportsbook
Morono is coming off a decision victory over David Zawada in September and is now on a two-fight win streak. He is a high-volume striker training out of Fortis MMA in Texas. He also holds a black belt in BJJ but rarely looks to offensively grapple. He can be taken down and controlled on the mat and has benefitted with a strength of schedule that rarely included grapplers. That changes with this matchup against Gall, who clearly needs to get the fight to the mat to win.
Gall is coming off a first-round submission victory over Jordan Williams in July. Of his six UFC victories, five have come by submission. He does not have much in the striking department and his cardio is a major concern, so he almost always needs to find the early submission. He should be able to have some grappling success early in this matchup, but Morono has never been submitted.
I expect Morono to stay alive on the mat if taken down and will take over in rounds two and three. Morono by decision is the official pick but there are better fights to target on DraftKings this week.
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Jared Vanderaa
Murzakanov, -230; Vanderaa, +184, DraftKings Sportsbook
Murzakanov is coming off a first-round knockout victory on Dana White’s Contender Series in August, which earned him a UFC contract. He is a powerful southpaw with an undefeated 10-0 record, and seven of those wins have come by knockout. He does have some solid wrestling when he goes to it but he it is typically not his first plan of attack. He will likely have a speed advantage and can certainly land takedowns and dominate on the mat early. However, he will be at a massive size disadvantage as he moves up to heavyweight and is six inches shorter than Vanderaa and will be at a nine-inch reach disadvantage. Lastly, he has only reached the third round once in his career and is coming off a two-year USADA suspension (2019-2021) so his cardio is a big question mark.
Vanderaa is not overly talented, but what he lacks in technicality he makes up for with toughness. His biggest weakness is that he is able to be taken down and controlled on the mat although his size could help with that in this matchup. Outside of the takedown defense, Vanderaa should have multiple advantages as he typically keeps a high pace for heavyweight and should have the better gas tank as well if he can survive round one.
This is an excellent fight to target as I expect the winner to score very well relative to their price point and have a strong chance at the optimal lineup. I will have exposure to both fighters but will be heavier on the underdog in Vanderaa. Murzakanov by KO is the official pick.
Chris Gruetzmacher vs. Claudio Puelles
Gruetzmacher, -115; Puelles, -105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Gruetzmacher is coming off a decision victory over Rafa Garcia in July. He is a high-volume striker who wants to stand and bang and is not going to give his opponents much else to think about. He has never landed a takedown in the UFC and struggles to defend takedowns against opponents with competent wrestling which is going to be a factor in this matchup.
Puelles is coming off a decision victory over Jordan Leavitt in June. It was an impressive performance from Puelles who clearly made some improvements since his last time in the octagon. Training at Sanford MMA, his striking is coming along but he is still very low volume on the feet. It is his ground game that makes him dangerous and it is clear that is his best path to victory in this matchup.
Puelles averages 3.35 takedowns per 15 minutes and should have a clear grappling advantage over Gruetzmacher, and I expect that to be the difference. Puelles by decision is the official pick.
Alonzo Menifield vs. William Knight
Menifield, -170; Knight, +150, DraftKings Sportsbook
Menifield is coming off a decision win over Ed Herman his last time out in August and is now on a two-fight win streak. Despite the win streak, Menifield is still completely untrustworthy as his cardio is a major red flag (although a little better against Herman) and his fight IQ is among the worst in the UFC. He has obvious knockout power and eight of his 11 wins have come by knockout, yet he continuously finds himself in clinch battles up against the fence.
Knight is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Fabio Cherant in August. Knight is similar to Menifield in that he is a physical specimen. However, his skillset leaves more to be desired. He does have some powerful leg kicks that he should have some success with and will likely try to wrestle Menifield. But Menifield’s takedown defense is strong, and Knight is not a high-level wrestler as he typically just tries to outmuscle his opponents and I do not see that working in this matchup.
This fight has a wide range of outcomes in that both guys can land a big shot and win by knockout early but more than likely I think we see a lot of cage push from knight being unsuccessful with takedowns and things getting sloppy as the fight goes on. I will have some exposure to both fighters but will likely be underweight to the Menifield side as he always seems to be one of the heaviest-rostered fighters on the slate. Knight by KO is the official pick.
Cheyanne Vlismas vs. Mallory Martin
Vlismas, -190; Martin, +160, DraftKings Sportsbook
Vlismas is coming off a first-round TKO victory over Gloria De Paula in July. She is a former Dana White’s Contender Series contract winner and seems to be a well-rounded prospect. Outside of the meme loss to Montserrat Ruiz where she continuously got stuck in a headlock, she has shown us a decent skillset. She should have a clear striking advantage over Martin and will likely try to keep the fight on the feet.
Martin is more of a wrestler but not overly impressive even in that area. She averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes but that is inflated due to the Polyana Viana fight where Viana was willing to look for submissions off her back. Martin is not overly physical, and I doubt she will be able to outmuscle Vlismas to the mat like Ruiz did. On the feet, Buys is much more technical and will be throwing much more volume with a clear power advantage.
Martin has no backup plan when she cannot get the fight to the ground, and I could see that happening here and Vlismas taking advantage and piecing her up for as long as the fight last. Vlismas by decision is the official pick.
Jake Matthews vs. Jeremiah Wells
Matthews, -180; Wells, +155, DraftKings Sportsbook
Matthews is coming off a third-round submission loss to Sean Brady where he was largely dominated throughout despite some early success on the feet. Matthews has always been a fighter I am not very high on, but he does have some skills. He is just your average run of the mill fighter that is average in most areas but not great in any area. He has decent striking but does not throw enough volume and keeps his hands low while leaving openings to be countered. He is a black belt in BJJ but his grappling is not impressive and he has repeatedly shown he can be controlled on the mat by competent opponents.
Wells is coming off an impressive UFC debut where he knocked out Warrley Alves in the second round.
He is extremely explosive — seven of his nine wins have come via finish. Aside from his power on the feet, he is a black belt in BJJ and trains out of Renzo Gracie in Philadelphia. His teammate, Sean Brady, already laid the blueprint on how to beat Matthews and Wells has the skillset to implement a similar game plan.
I expect Wells to have explosive moments on the feet and possibly knock out Matthews. If not, then he should be able to earn significant time in top position to win rounds. Wells by knockout is the official pick and he is a strong underdog to target on DraftKings.
Manel Kape vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Kape, -250; Zhumagulov, +200, DraftKings Sportsbook
Kape is coming off an exciting first-round knockout via flying knee over Ode Osbourne at UFC 265 in August. He is a well-rounded prospect with power on the feet and a black belt in BJJ which he earned after that victory. However, I still have concerns with Kape in that he is typically low volume on the feet and a very slow starter that lets his opponents dictate the dance.
Zhumagulov is coming off a first-round submission victory over Jerome Rivera back at UFC 264 in July. He is primarily a wrestler but only averages 1.4 takedowns per 15 minutes. He struggles to control his opponents on the mat and his striking is OK, but he mostly just loads up on overhand rights which should not work against someone as quick as Kape.
I expect Kape to have a speed advantage and to use his footwork to avoid the big shots from Zhumagulov and ultimately edge close rounds. Kape by decision is the official pick but there are better fights to target on this slate as I do not expect the winner to score well.
Dusko Todorovic vs. Maki Pitolo
Todorovic, -160; Pitolo, +140, DraftKings Sportsbook
Todorovic is coming off a decision loss to Gregory Rodriguez in June. He is now on a two-fight losing streak after starting his professional career 10-0. It is no secret that I have never been impressed with Todorovic and think he was clearly overvalued coming into the UFC. His record is littered with first-round finishes against subpar opponents and since facing UFC caliber competition he has not looked good. His striking is not bad offensively, but his defense needs work as he relies primarily on head movement and tends to eat a ton of clean shots. Additionally, he likes to cage push his opponents but rarely does anything with the position and has a 5% takedown success rate in the UFC.
Pitolo is coming off a disappointing third-round submission loss to Julian Marquez at UFC 258. I say disappointing because he was clearly winning the fight until that point. Pitolo is a high-volume boxer with fast hands and legitimate power on the feet. He will also look to mix in the takedowns as he averages 2.42 takedowns per 15 minutes. Pitolo also eats a ton of clean shots, which makes you a bit uncomfortable and he tends to put himself in compromising positions on the mat as well which makes him untrustworthy.
That said, this is a winnable matchup for him, and I expect him to be the aggressor of the two fighters and to have success in the striking and wrestling. Pitolo by decision is the official pick and he is my preferred play on DraftKings.
Bryan Barberena vs. Darian Weeks
Barberena, -195; Weeks, +170, DraftKings Sportsbook
Barberena is coming off a majority decision loss against Jason Witt in what was an exciting back-and-forth scrap. At this point in his career, I have serious concerns with Barberena. Just a few years ago, he was giving Vicente Luque some tough rounds. but after multiple surgeries and a few more UFC fights, he looks to be a shell of his former self. His durability is now in question and his footwork and striking is much slower than it used to be. He should be the more talented fighter whose experience should pay off in this matchup, but I have a hard time trusting him in any matchup at this point.
Weeks is taking the fight on short notice and making his UFC debut. Weeks was supposed to fight on this season of Dana White’s Contender Series in a main event against Josh Quinlan but had to pull out of the fight. I am not very impressed with Weeks’ game as he is still very green and has only been fighting professionally for two years. He has solid wrestling skills and that should be his advantage against Barberena, who struggles to defend takedowns at 58%. Outside of the wrestling and just being the more athletic younger fighter, I do not see any advantages for him.
This is a fight Barberena should win, but there are multiple red flags that make him tough to back in this spot. For that reason, I will have some exposure to both sides but likely underweight on Barberena. Barberena by decision is the official pick.
Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis
Allen, -365; Curtis, +280, DraftKings Sportsbook
Allen is coming off a decision victory over Punahele Soriano in July. Typically known as a ground-game specialist, Allen showed off his striking improvements in his last fight and looked great doing so. When he puts it all together, he is a tough matchup for any opponent.
Curtis is coming off an electric knockout victory over Phil Hawes in his UFC debut that was the biggest upset of the night. Curtis is a powerful striker with 15 of his 27 victories coming by way of knockout. He also holds a brown belt in BJJ, but Allen should have a significant advantage if the fight hits the mat. After the Sean Strickland fight and the camp change to Sanford MMA, Allen’s striking has looked levels better than before, and he should have success against Curtis who struggles when put on the back foot
I expect Allen to move forward and take the fight wherever he wants it. Allen cruises here to a decision victory although he has upside to finish as well. Allen by decision is the official pick.
Jimmy Crute vs. Jamahal Hill
Crute, -160; Hill, +140, DraftKings Sportsbook
Crute is coming off a TKO doctor stoppage loss against Anthony Smith back at UFC 261 in April. Smith attacked the leg early with calf kicks and Crute experienced footdrop, which was nasty to watch as he could barely walk and kept rolling his ankle repeatedly. He fought his best to continue, but ultimately the doctor called the fight off. Despite the unfortunate loss, Crute is still a prospect that impresses me as his only other loss came by submission against the specialist, Misha Cirkunov. Crute is relentless with taking his opponents down and averages just under five takedowns per 15 minutes. His striking is not great, but he is good at closing distance and once he takes his opponents down, he is very difficult to get off of you.
Hill is coming off a first-round TKO loss to Paul Craig at UFC 263 in June. Craig showed there are levels to jiu jitsu and dislocated Hill’s arm on his way to victory. Hill is a powerful striker with four of his eight professional victories coming by knockout. He will need to stuff the takedowns and keep the fight standing against Crute, but I have doubts he will be able to do so.
I expect Crute to waste no time in taking the fight to the ground and his suffocating wrestling should be the difference. Crute by submission is the official pick.
Leonardo Santos vs. Clay Guida
Santos, -180; Guida, +155, DraftKings Sportsbook
Santos is coming off a third-round knockout loss to Grant Dawson in March. Many people thought he was on his way to getting his hand raised before being finished by Dawson in the final round. Santos is 7-1-1 in the UFC with notable wins over Kevin Lee and Anthony Rocco Martin. He has power on the feet and holds a black belt in BJJ with nine of his 18 professional wins coming by submission. At nearly 42 years old, I have concerns with his durability at this stage in his career along with his cardio.
Guida is known for being a cardio machine, which will likely be a factor in this matchup. Guida is coming off a split-decision loss against Mark Madsen in August. His awkward striking can give Santos fits and he averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes. I mention the cardio of Santos and I expect Guida to have a clear advantage as the fight goes on.
This basically comes down to Guida not getting hurt on the feet early or putting his neck in a bad spot after landing a takedown. Outside of that, he should be the better minute winner in this matchup. Guida by decision is the official pick and he is a solid underdog to target on DraftKings as his path to victory likely involved multiple takedowns.
Rafael Fiziev vs. Brad Riddell
Fiziev, -120; Riddell, +100, DraftKings Sportsbook
Fiziev is coming off a decision victory over Bobby Green in August. He is currently on a four-fight win streak after losing his UFC debut to Magomed Mustafaev in April of 2019. Fiziev is a high-level kickboxer and extremely powerful with his kicking attack. He is up there with the better offensive strikers of the division. As fun as he is to watch, I have concerns with his striking defense and cardio at times. He eats many clean shots and that is going to be an issue against good counter strikers like Riddell in this matchup.
Riddell is coming off a decision victory over Drew Dober in June at UFC 263. Riddell is also one of the best strikers in the division, if not the very best. Riddell is arguably just as powerful as Fiziev, but he does most of his damage with his hands. Riddell has defensive issues as well with being open to counters while closing the distance. However, Riddell’s footwork and counter striking should be the difference in what I expect to be an exciting back-and-forth affair.
Riddell by decision is the official pick but both fighters can win by knockout, so I’ll have exposure to both sides on DraftKings with a lean towards Riddell.
Rob Font vs. Jose Aldo
Font, -145; Aldo, +125, DraftKings Sportsbook
Font is coming off an impressive decision victory over Cody Garbrandt in the main event at UFC Fight Night 188 in May. Font is one of the best boxers in the Bantamweight division as he is very technical and will throw in high volume as well. Eight of his 19 professional victories have come by knockout, and he should have a striking advantage over Aldo in this matchup.
Aldo is coming off a decision victory over Pedro Munhoz in August at UFC 265 and is currently on a two-fight win streak. Aldo is a legend of the fight game and has clearly proved the doubters wrong since his move down to 135 pounds. But he has his hands full in this matchup against Font who should have a speed and power advantage while the fight plays out on the feet. Aldo could have some success boxing and mixing in the calf kicks along with controlling Font against the fence, but he has not offensively wrestled in years as his last takedown came in 2014.
I expect this to be a competitive fight, but I lean Font as the better striker over 25 minutes. Font by decision is the official pick but I will have exposure to both sides on DraftKings.
