UFC Vegas 44 DFS Picks

Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC Vegas 44: Font vs Aldo. After a rare week off for the MMA leader, the UFC returns this weekend with a stacked fight night card that includes a whopping 14 bouts. At the top of the bill is a bantamweight clash between Rob Font and Jose Aldo, with the winner likely securing a spot in a top contender fight down the line. With such a big slate ahead of us, it’s important that we prioritize high-ceiling players, as it will take massive scores to take down GPP’s. I’ll be in the FTNDaily Discord leading up to Saturday’s slate to discuss last-minute changes and additional general slate strategy.

If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.

In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups. 

High-tier: Jimmy Crute $9200

There’s a severe lack of huge betting favorites on this card. The biggest favorite is Brendan Allen, who is priced at $9600 and projects as an extremely strong play. Yet once we move past Allen, many of the betting prices and Draftkings prices are largely the same, which means that ownership is likely to be spread out a bit in the upper price range. My favorite play by far on this slate is Jimmy Crute. Crute has an advantageous matchup against Jamahal Hill. Crute averages nearly five takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Hill has just a 57% takedown defense. Additionally, Crute has finished all four of his UFC victories and Hill was forced to submit in his last fight. I expect Crute to land multiple takedowns and secure a finish. 

Mid-tier: Louis Smolka $8500

This is a tough week in the mid-tier on Draftkings. I’ve found myself making a bunch of lineups that are more focused on a “stars and scrubs” approach with multiple upper-tier and lower-tier fighters. The two best plays in this range are Rob Font and Jose Aldo in the main event, but you don’t need me to tell you that. Outside of those two, my attention has shifted to Louis Smolka. Smolka is a small favorite this weekend and is a relatively untrustworthy fighter in general, but he is exactly the type we want to target on larger slates. Smolka is the definition of a boom or bust DFS fighter, as he’s scored 100+ points in all four of his DraftKings victories. However, he’s also been finished three times and has conceded big DFS scores to his opponents in the past as well. For that reason, I’ll be hedging some exposure here and playing both Smolka and his opponent, Vince Morales. 

Low-tier: Mickey Gall $6700

It’s hard to ever feel extremely confident when writing up Mickey Gall. This week? I actually think he makes for a great play on DraftKings, especially with his price tag at just $6700. Gall has certainly had his ups and downs throughout his UFC career, but his striking is improving and he’s becoming a more competent mixed martial artist. Grappling remains his biggest strength, and he has a favorable stylistic matchup this weekend against Alex Morono. Morono is a well-rounded fighter and deserves to be the favorite in this fight, but his takedown defense is just 52%. Despite that, Morono historically has very good defensive jiu-jitsu, but his wrestling getups aren’t great. I think Gall should be the better grappler if he ends in top position during this fight. At just $6700, Gall makes for a great play.