Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 40 in Las Vegas. This card is not great, but that does not mean we do won’t have an opportunity to make some money.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Ariane Carnelossi vs. Istela Nunes
Carnelossi, -160; Nunes, +140, DraftKings Sportsbook
Carnelossi is coming off a knockout victory over Na Liang back in April. She is 13-2 professionally with nine knockout victories on her record. Her only two career losses were against Amanda Ribas in her professional debut back in 2014 and Angela Hill in her UFC debut in 2019. She is a powerful striker and is very physically strong. She is going to walk forward and look to land big shots while bullying you up against the fence. She has grappling credentials as well but is not very positionally sound.
Nunes is making her UFC debut and is coming off a 40-month layoff since we last saw her in a professional MMA fight. She is a former Muay Thai world champion and trains at American Top Team. She clearly has some striking skills, but the long layoff is still a big red flag, and she is fighting someone who is going to be much more physical than her.
I fully expect this fight to be an absolute banger and the pace will likely lead to a decent score on DraftKings and potentially even a finish. I am OK with getting exposure to both sides, but my preferred play is Carnelossi, as I expect her power and physicality to be the major difference here. Carnelossi by knockout is the official pick.
Danaa Batgerel vs. Brandon Davis
Batgerel, -180; Davis, +155, DraftKings Sportsbook
Batgerel is coming off an electric first-round knockout victory against Kevin Natividad at UFC 261. He is a powerful boxer with five of his nine career wins coming by knockout including four of his last five fights. Outside of his clear power advantage, I am not sure if he has his opponent covered in any area.
Davis is making his return to the UFC after being released a couple years ago. Since leaving the UFC, he went on a four-fight win streak and most recently a first-round knockout victory in August. Davis is an action-packed fighter that likes to bang but that may not be the best option for him here. He does not always look to wrestle, but Batgerel will give up takedowns and Davis will have a clear grappling advantage.
Batgerel seems to be getting a little too much respect for the back-to-back knockout wins, but Davis has never been knocked out and has the tools to make this a very tough fight for Batgerel. Davis by decision is the official pick and this is another solid fight to target on DraftKings.
Ludovit Klein vs. Nate Landwehr
Klein, -320; Landwehr, +250, DraftKings Sportsbook
Klein is coming off a decision loss to Michael Trizano his last time out in May. Despite the loss, Klein is an exciting and very well-rounded prospect. He is a powerful striker on the feet with legitimate knockout power and is a decent grappler as well. Of his 20 professional fights, just two have gone the full distance including that loss to Trizano.
Landwehr is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Julian Erosa in February. He is an aggressive striker that is looking to put a pace on his opponent and more importantly, put on a show for the fans. The concern with Landwehr is that his defensive liabilities along with his durability are a red flag. He will need to keep the fight standing but avoid getting hurt in order to outlast Klein.
Landwehr’s only advantage is his cardio, but he has a narrow path to victory and I am not convinced he finds it. Klein by knockout is the official pick.
Lupita Godinez vs. Luana Carolina
Godinez, -280; Carolina, +220, DraftKings Sportsbook
Godinez is making UFC history with the fastest turnaround ever as she just fought Saturday and won by submission over Silvana Gomez Juarez. Godinez is a good boxer and powerful wrestler. She will likely look to close distance and clinch up before looking to get the fight to the mat. She is moving up a weight class though and will be at a massive reach disadvantage.
Carolina is coming off a split-decision victory over Poliana Botelho in May. She is primarily a striker and does not have much sense of a grappling game.
I expect Godinez to land takedowns and bank control time as well as threatening with submissions. Godinez by decision is the official pick.
Ramazan Emeev vs. Danny Roberts
Emeev, -290; Roberts, +230, DraftKings Sportsbook
Emeev is coming off a split-decision victory in January over David Zawada. He is a low-volume striker that is looking to land takedowns and ride it out in top position. He is a boring fighter and typically does not score well for DraftKings.
Roberts is coming off nearly a two-year layoff after knocking out Zelim Imadaev in November of 2019. Roberts should have the striking and speed advantage in this matchup, but the major factor is that he continuously gets taken down and controlled on the mat. That is a serious problem in this matchup against Emeev, who is going to be looking to land takedowns and I expect little resistance from Roberts in that department.
Emeev by decision is the official pick but there are better fights to target on DraftKings.
Bruno Silva vs. Andrew Sanchez
Silva, -150; Sanchez, +130, DraftKings Sportsbook
Silva is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Wellington Turman in his UFC debut in June. Despite the win, he is still someone that has some serious red flags in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong, he is very powerful, and 17 of his 20 professional wins have come by knockout. However, his cardio is very suspect, and he has a track record of being taken down and five of his six losses have come by submission.
Sanchez is coming off a third-round knockout to Makhmud Muradov his last time out in January. Sanchez has the tools to give Silva a tough matchup in that he is a good wrestler and has the cardio to go a hard 15 minutes. The concern with Sanchez is that he falls in loves with his hands at times and he simply cannot take the damage to go to war in a striking match. He has been knocked out in four of his six career losses.
As long as he can avoid the early power of Silva then he should be able to outlast him and takeover as the fight goes on. Sanchez by decision is the official pick and this is a good fight to target on DraftKings, as I expect the winner to score well either way.
Julian Marquez vs. Jordan Wright
Marquez, -250; Wright, +200, DraftKings Sportsbook
Marquez is coming off a second-round submission victory over Sam Alvey in April. He is a powerful striker with six of his nine wins coming by knockout. But he is almost always looking to grapple despite never landing a takedown in the UFC. His skillset has never impressed me, but it does not take much to be a reasonable fighter in the light heavyweight division and he is not bad. One of his best assets is being durable and outlasting many of his opponents that do not have the cardio to go a hard 15 minutes.
Enter Jordan Wright. The Beverly Hills ninja is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Jamie Pickett in May. Wright is a finisher by nature and is going to go all out to find a finish inside the first round. The issue is if he does not get that finish then he typically gasses and gets hurt himself on the way to being finished.
I do have some interest in him on DraftKings as he is an underdog with finishing potential and his opponent is likely going to give him the fight he wants for the first round. If he cannot pull off the upset then he is likely getting finished in Round 2 or 3, which makes this another good fight to target as the winner should score well. Marquez by KO is the official pick.
Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Fiorot, -250; Silva, +200, DraftKings Sportsbook
Fiorot is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Tabatha Ricci in June. She is a high-volume striker with serious power for this division and six of her seven career victories have come by knockout. Her grappling is still untested at this level, but her aggressiveness and power has allowed her to mow through her first two UFC opponents.
Bueno Silva is coming off a draw against Montana De La Rosa in February. She is similar to Fiorot in the sense that she is a heavy hitter for this division and relies on her power as she does not throw a ton of volume. But she is a good submission grappler as five of her seven career wins have come by submission, and she holds a black belt in BJJ. Unlike Fiorot’s cardio being untested in the third round, we know Bueno Silva’s cardio cannot hold up for 15 minutes if the fight gets extended.
I favor Fiorot’s striking advantage, power and cardio to get the job done here. Fiorot by knockout is the official pick.
Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez
Miller, -225; Gonzalez, +185, DraftKings Sportsbook
Miller is coming off a decision loss to Joe Solecki in April and is now on a two-fight losing streak. Despite his old age (in fighting years) of 38, Miller has still been competitive early on in most of his fights, even against good competition. When he faces a significant step down in competition or a fighter that cannot handle his grappling then he typically takes care of business.
That is what we are seeing here with Gonzalez, who is making his UFC debut on short notice and is currently on a two-fight win streak on the regional scene. Despite the fact that Miller’s cardio clearly slows after seven minutes, that should not be a major issue here as I expect him to find a submission early. Gonzalez has been taken down by much worse wrestlers than Miller and the only two times he was finished was by submission in the first round.
From what I have seen, I doubt he is able to defend takedowns and fight off submissions from a high-level grappler like Miller and expect Miller finds the finish in the first round. Miller by submission is the official pick and he is a strong target on DraftKings, even with the cardio risk.
Carlos Felipe vs. Andrei Arlovski
Felipe, -115; Arlovski, -105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Felipe is coming off a split-decision victory over Jake Collier in June. Felipe is a high-volume striker for Heavyweight and comes from a boxing background. His best strengths are that he is an aggressive striker and is durable enough to go to war for 15 minutes even if he has to walk through a few big shots.
Arlovski is a similar version of Felipe just much older and a little less durable. Neither fighter is a capable grappler and I do not expect either to look for takedowns so we can expect a striking match for as long as the fight lasts.
I expect this to be a competitive fight where it may not be clear on which fighter is winning rounds. That makes this an easy pass for me as I do not have a strong read on the winner and I do not expect the fight to score well on DraftKings. Felipe by split decision is the official pick but there are better fights to target on this slate.
Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont
Ladd, -130; Dumont, +110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Ladd is getting another chance after missing weight again when she was supposed to fight Macy Chiasson a few weeks ago. Be sure to keep an eye on the weigh-ins as she has notoriously struggled to make weight. The last time we saw her in the octagon was nearly two-years ago when she won by TKO against Yana Kunitskaya. Ladd is an aggressive fighter with high output. She will throw in high volume on the feet and clinch up to look for takedowns where she has some nasty ground and pound. She also has excellent cardio and will be able to go a hard 15 minutes if needed.
Dumont is coming off a split-decision victory over Felicia Spencer in May. Dumont is similar to Ladd but the lesser version in my opinion. She has power on the feet but is also looking to clinch up and land takedowns as well. She has yet to be taken down in the UFC, but she has yet to face someone with decent wrestling like she will here.
This is a good fight to target as the winner should score well but I favor Ladd mainly due to experience and cardio and expect her to look like the better minute winner Saturday night. Ladd by decision is the official pick.
