Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 37 in Las Vegas. We have a 15-fight card slate this week, so you can expect ownership to be naturally more spread out especially after a shorter card two weeks ago.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Emily Whitmire vs. Hannah Goldy
Whitmire, -125; Goldy, +105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Whitmire last fought in August of 2020 and was submitted by Polyana Viana in the first round. She is currently on a two-fight losing streak with both losses coming by submission. Despite the back-to-back losses, this is a great bounceback opportunity for her against Goldy. Whitmire’s skillset is limited but she is well-rounded in terms of the lower level of this division. She is a capable striker and will look to mix in the takedowns with her Judo as well.
Goldy is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Diana Belbita back in July. She has yet to show any real improvement since reaching the UFC as she is a one-dimensional striker that will dance around the outside and throw karate style kicks along with some powerful hooks when her opponent closes the distance. She is physically strong, but the skillset just is not there. Her best path to victory is to keep the fight standing and edge a striking based decision but even in that scenario, it would be a close fight.
I favor Whitmire to close the distance and have the advantage with her Judo and wrestling. She struggles against good grapplers, but she should have the grappling advantage in this matchup. Whitmire by decision is the official pick but on a 15-fight card, there are better fighters to target this week on DraftKings.
Heili Alateng vs. Gustavo Lopez
Alateng, -125; Lopez, +105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Alateng is coming off a decision loss to Casey Kenney his last time out in October of last year. That loss snapped a two-fight win streak for him in the UFC and he will look to get back on track against Lopez. Alateng is a low-volume power striker which makes him difficult to back unless he has a wrestling advantage. He averages 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes but mainly due to facing two guys previously that could not stop the takedowns. He did not shoot against Kenney, and I expect a similar game plan against Lopez, who holds a brown belt in BJJ.
Lopez is coming off a knockout loss to Adrian Yanez back in March, but he landed some big shots of his own in that fight as well. He is also a low-volume power puncher, but I trust him to be more active early in the fight along with having a grappling advantage if either guy takes it to the mat. However, his durability is a concern as he has been knocked out three times in his career including in his last loss.
Alateng does carry some power and should have the durability advantage if this becomes a war. He is my preferred lean in this matchup but outside of an early knockout on either side, this fight should not score well on DraftKings. Alateng by decision is the official pick.
Impa Kasanganay vs. Carlston Harris
Kasanganay, -130; Harris, +110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Kasanganay is coming off a submission victory over Sasha Palatnikov his last time out back in April. He is 9-1 professionally with six of his nine wins coming by way of decision. He is mostly recognized for the viral knockout loss to Joaquin Buckley last year, but he does have a decent skillset for an up-and-coming prospect. He is very athletic and powerful and training at a good camp in Sanford MMA. He throws good volume on the feet and will mix in some takedowns if he is able to out-muscle his opponents as well.
Harris is coming off a first-round submission victory in his UFC debut against Christian Aguilera back in May. Harris is primarily a wrestler and will be aggressive in pursuing the takedowns early. Aguilera should have a grappling advantage if he is able to get it to the mat and I expect he will.
I favor Harris because I think he will dictate where the fight takes place, but I am aware that Kasanganay has a real path to victory if he can keep this fight standing where he should have a striking advantage. Harris is my preferred play on DraftKings as his win condition involves multiple takedowns and a potential finish on the mat as well. Harris by submission is the official pick.
Erin Blanchfield vs. Sarah Alpar
Blanchfield, -320; Alpar, +250, DraftKings Sportsbook
Blanchfield is making her UFC debut this weekend and is coming in on a three-fight win streak. She supposed to make her debut earlier this year but her opponent, Norma Dumont missed weight by 3.5 lbs. and so the fight was scrapped. Blanchfield is an exciting young prospect with a respectable resume on the regional scene. She has wins over current UFC fighters, Victoria Leonardo and Kay Hansen and her only career loss being a split-decision to Tracey Cortez back in 2019. She recently earned her black belt in BJJ and should have advantages wherever this fight goes as Alpar does not present many concerns for Blanchfield.
Alpar is coming off her UFC debut where she was brutally knocked out in the third round by Jessica-Rose Clark in what was mostly a one-sided affair. Alpar’s best asset is her ability to cage push and peel her opponents to the ground, but she typically does not know how to maintain top position or accumulate much damage either.
Additionally, Blanchfield has a solid wrestling base herself and is the better grappler so she should be able to dictate where the fight takes place. Blanchfield by decision is the official pick.
Montel Jackson vs. JP Buys
Jackson, -630; Buys, +450, DraftKings Sportsbook
Jackson is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Jesse Strader his last time out in March. He is 10-2 professionally with six of his 10 wins coming by knockout. Jackson is always a solid DraftKings target as he typically fights at a high pace, has finishing upside but also lands multiple takedowns as he averages 4.15 takedowns per 15 minutes. He may not choose to wrestle in this matchup against a grappler like Buys, but he should have a significant striking advantage and is going to be much bigger in this matchup.
Buys is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Bruno Silva back in March. Clearly, his path to victory involves closing the distance and grinding on Jackson while implementing his grappling as he does not have much in terms of his striking skillset. Overall, I have a hard time seeing him implement that game plan and can see him struggling with the quickness and power as well as the physicality of Jackson in this fight.
Buys has also been known to give up when things are not going his way and has been knocked out twice already in his short career. Jackson by knockout is the official pick and he is a strong target on DraftKings.
Zhu Rong vs. Brandon Jenkins
Rong, -305; Jenkins, +240, DraftKings Sportsbook
Rong Zhu is coming off a loss in his UFC debut when he fought Kazula Vargas in April. He is a low-volume power puncher that is always looking to land the big shot, but his skillset is very underwhelming. I am expecting to see at least some improvements as it was possible UFC jitters played a role in him not being as aggressive as he was on the regional scene. Additionally, he has been training at American Top Team for this camp which makes me think we could see some wrestling as well.
Jenkins is replacing Dakota Bush on just a few days’ notice and will be making his UFC debut against Rong. He is coming off a first-round knockout victory over in PFL against UFC veteran Jacob Kilburn just a few weeks ago. Despite the three-fight win streak, I do not think Jenkins has a great skillset. He is long for the division, but his striking is awkward and slow and he has some serious defensive liabilities.
That said, Rong Zhu should not be a big favorite against anyone in the UFC based on what we saw from him in his debut. He is a great ‘on paper’ play because of his price and the obvious line value but I would get some exposure to Jenkins as well for the leverage against the field in what should be a high-variance sloppy fight. Rong by knockout is the official pick.
Tony Gravely vs. Nate Maness
Gravely, -200; Maness, +170, DraftKings Sportsbook
Gravely is coming off an impressive second-round knockout victory over Anthony Birchuk his last time out in April. He comes from a high-level wrestling background as he was a two-time state champion wrestler in high school and wrestled collegiately at Appalachian State which is Division I. What I like about Gravely is that he is a good boxer as well and his cardio holds up for the full 15 minutes even in a grueling pace. The biggest concern with Gravely is that he sticks his neck out there quite a bit and can be choked out by decent grapplers. Fortunately, that likely won’t be a main concern against Maness in this matchup.
Maness is coming off a second-round submission victory over Luke Sanders in November. He is 2-0 in the UFC, but I am not impressed with him and can’t help but feel his back-to-back wins have been somewhat fluky. He was taken down repeatedly and controlled by Johnny Munoz who should have won that fight if it was not for the multiple groin shots. Additionally, he was getting pieced up by Luke Sanders until he landed a big shot that stumbled Sanders and immediately tapped him with a rear-naked choke.
Maness is going to be the taller fighter with a three-inch reach advantage, but his low-volume striking approach makes it difficult for me to see him win minutes against Gravely. I expect Gravely to be the much more active striker and have no issues closing the distance and landing multiple takedowns as he will have a significant wrestling advantage. Gravely by knockout is the official pick.
Raquel Pennington vs. Pannie Kianzad
Pennington, -130; Kianzad, +110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Pennington is coming off a decision victory over Marion Reneau in June of last year. She is 2-3 over her last five fights in the UFC but has fought the elite tier of this division. She is primarily a boxer but does not throw in volume and typically will look to control her opponents in the clinch and against the cage before peeling them to the ground.
Kianzad is coming off a decision victory over Alexis Davis in June. She is now on a four-fight win streak and all of which have come by decision. Kianzad will likely have a striking advantage as she is going to throw more volume and has a more diverse striking attack. However, she will need to keep the fight standing and not give up minutes being pushed and controlled against the cage in this matchup.
I see this fight playing out very similar to when Pennington fought Irene Aldana, which resulted in a split-decision victory. Pennington is likely to be getting hit more at range but should be the one controlling minutes against the fence or landing takedowns. For that reason, I favor her slightly to win the fight but overall, this is not a fight that I am targeting as neither fighter will score great in a win. Pennington by split decision is the official pick.
Tafon Nchukwi vs. Mike Rodriguez
Nchukwi, -125; Rodriguez, +105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Nchukwi is coming off a majority decision loss to Jun Yong Park back in May. He is a powerful kickboxer with four of his five career wins coming by knockout. He struggled in his last fight against Park who gave him a good veteran test but ultimately gave up multiple takedowns and let Park control the fight for the most part. He is still a high-volume striker with legitimate power and has shown that his cardio will keep pace for 15 minutes if needed.
Rodriguez is coming off a submission loss to Danilo Marques in February. Rodriguez is now on a two-fight losing streak and has just one victory over his last five UFC bouts. Rodriguez is tall and lengthy for the division but rarely uses that length to his advantage and has serious defensive grappling and cardio concerns. Fortunately for him, this should play out exclusively on the feet as neither guy is interested in wrestling.
Rodriguez’ path to victory is likely an early knockout but Nchukwi has proven to be durable, and I trust him to be the more active fighter along with the much fresher fighter as the fight goes on. Nchukwi by knockout is the official pick. This is a fight that I have interest in targeting as both guys are capable of winning by knockout, but this is not a core target for me as I could also see Nchukwi winning a striking based decision that underwhelms on DraftKings.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Antonio Arroyo
Buckley, -200; Arroyo, +170, DraftKings Sportsbook
Buckley is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Alessio Di Chirico in January. That marked the third knockout loss of his career and snapped a two-fight win streak. Buckley is a powerful striker with nine of his 12 wins coming by knockout. The biggest concerns with Buckley are his durability and his defensive grappling when facing a legitimate wrestler or grappler. His takedown defense is currently 100% in the UFC but that is meaningless as the only fighter to attempt a takedown against him was Jordan Wright.
Meanwhile, Arroyo should have a submission grappling advantage and would be wise to try to initiate the takedowns in this fight. The problem with that is that he is too comfortable getting lulled into a low volume striking match and has cardio concerns which could be exaggerated if he is forcing takedowns. He is currently on a two-fight losing streak in the UFC and likely gets his walking papers if he loses to Buckley.
Outside of an early powerful head kick from Arroyo, I think he loses this fight at a fairly high clip. Buckley by knockout is the official pick and maybe we can see another highlight reel knockout from Buckley the brick house.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Christos Giagos
Tsarukyan, -800; Giagos, +550, DraftKings Sportsbook
Tsarukyan is coming off a dominant decision victory over Matt Frevola back in January. He is an exciting prospect that is very well-rounded and is now on a three-fight win streak. He has now won 15 of his last 16 fights with his sole loss in that period coming against Islam Makhachev in 2019, which was his UFC debut. He is a flashy striker that can fight at a high pace for 15 minutes but where he really shines is when he mixes in the grappling. He averages 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least one in all of his UFC fights.
Giagos is coming off a second-round submission victory over Sean Soriano his last time out in May. He is currently on a two-fight win streak but has faced some low-level competition during that span and Tsarukyan is likely to have him covered in every area in this fight.
I expect Tsarukyan to have a clear speed and striking advantage to go along with his control grappling as well. Tsarukyan by decision is the official pick but he has the ability to score well even in a decision victory, so he is still a good target this week on DraftKings.
Ariane Lipski vs. Mandy Bohm
Lipski, -115; Bohm, -105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Lipski is coming off a brutal TKO loss to Montana De La Rosa in June. She is currently on a two-fight losing streak and has won just two of her six UFC bouts. However, she has had a tough strength of schedule and has also faced some decent wrestlers when that is her biggest weakness. Fortunately for her in this matchup, she should expect to be able to let her hands go more in the striking exchanges without worrying much about defending takedowns. When she is able to keep the fight on the feet, she is a decent boxer and carries real power for this division with six of her 13 career wins coming by knockout.
Bohm is making her UFC debut and previously fought in Bellator in her last fight. She is a 7-0 prospect, but her strength of schedule is very underwhelming, and her skillset leaves more to be desired as well. I am not exactly sure what she does well as her striking is awkward and she gets hit too much on the feet. She has landed some takedowns in her previous fights but has been reversed multiple times in dominant positions and is easily taken down herself.
Lipski should have her covered in every area of this fight and I see the striking being obvious in favor of Lipski. Lipski by decision is the official pick but I would not be surprised to her finish Bohm as well which makes her a nice leverage play on DraftKings as she is not going to be owned much at all.
Nikolas Motta vs. Cameron VanCamp
Motta, -310; VanCamp, +245, DraftKings Sportsbook
Fight canceled.
Ion Cutelaba vs. Devin Clark
Cutelaba, -145; Clark, +125, DraftKings Sportsbook
Cutelaba is coming off a draw against Dustin Jacoby his last time out in May. He looked very good early landing takedowns and dominating in the first round. However, like a typical Cutelaba performance, his cardio failed him after round one and it was not great after that. The gas tank has always been Cutelaba’s biggest issue as he has a decent skillset with the sambo background and the obvious knockout power as well. But if he continues to struggle to fight longer than five minutes then he is tough to back as a favorite in most matchups.
Clark is coming off a first-round submission loss to Anthony Smith last November. Clark comes from a wrestling background and that is clearly his best path to victory as his chin is very suspect. He has only been knocked out twice in his career but does not react well to getting punched and has been rocked on numerous other occasions. He will likely try his usual gameplan of cage pushing and wrestling in this matchup, but it will be difficult against the powerful wrestling background of Cutelaba especially early in the fight.
Clark will need to avoid the power punches early and try to make Cutelaba work in the grappling department to wear on his cardio so that he can take over late. Overall, I see that as being the best possible outcome for Clark and not that likely. Cutelaba by knockout is the official pick but if this gets out of round one then things could get very dicey.
Anthony Smith vs. Ryan Spann
Smith, -170; Spann, +150, DraftKings Sportsbook
Smith is coming off a first-round TKO victory over Jimmy Crute back at UFC 261 in April. He landed some good leg kicks in the first round, which caused Crute to experience foot drop, which was tough to watch and ultimately the doctor decided to call the fight. That was the right decision despite Crute wanting to fight on. Smith has never been a good round winner, but he is a good finisher if given the right matchups. Historically, any time he gets a step down from the elite tier of the division, he tends to do well for himself.
Spann is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Misha Cirkunov his last time out in March. He is 5-1 in the UFC with two knockouts and one submission in that span although the level of competition has not been great outside of Cirkunov. This matchup is interesting because Spann is almost like the less skilled and less experienced version of Smith. He has power on the feet but does not throw a ton of volume and he has some decent grappling skills but is not aggressive enough in getting the fight to the ground.
In this matchup, I think Smith is the better submission grappler and Spann’s best path to victory is landing something heavy on the feet which is entirely possible. However, I have to favor Smith as he is just as likely, if not more, to land something powerful as well and should have Spann edged in nearly every area. Smith by knockout is the official pick but this is a good fight to get exposure to either side on DraftKings as both guys are capable of finishing and have some durability concerns as well.
