Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 34 in Las Vegas. After a week off, it always feels good to get back to the action. We have a nice 12-fight card for us and a few key targets that I really like this week.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
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Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Sasha Palatnikov
Brahimaj, -135; Palatnikov, +115, DraftKings Sportsbook
Brahimaj is coming off a nasty TKO stoppage loss in his UFC debut last November. He was losing the fight but made a decent account of himself up until his ear started coming off, literally. Coming into his debut, I expected him to be aggressive in getting the fight to the ground as he comes from a wrestling background and is a No Gi world champion in grappling. However, he was perfectly content to stand and trade with Max Griffin despite losing most of those exchanges. Regardless, I still do expect the grappling to be a focus for him in this matchup as all eight of his professional victories have come by submission. His opponent, Sasha Palatnikov is coming off a submission loss to Impa Kasaganay in April. Palatnikov is a high-volume striker with good cardio. However, a clear leak in his game is his defensive grappling. His first level takedown defense is good but once he is taken down then he typically gets dominated on the ground. This is a very clear advantage for Brahimaj if he chooses to implement a grappling gameplan. Brahimaj by submission is the official pick and he is a good target this week on DraftKings.
Roosevelt Roberts vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Roberts, -150; Bahamondes, +130, DraftKings Sportsbook
Roberts is coming off a first-round submission loss to Kevin Croom last September that was later overturned to a no contest due to a failed test by Croom. Roberts is a well-rounded prospect with decent boxing and fast hands to go along with his grappling credentials as he holds a brown belt in BJJ. He has only struggled in the UFC when he is faced against better wrestlers and grapplers which should not be an issue against Bahamondes, who comes from a high-level kickboxing background and earned his UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last November. He is very long and rangy and will throw in high volume on the feet. However, he is very hittable as well and also struggles to defend submissions and fight for position on the mat. I expect both fighters to have success on the feet but when Roberts mixes in the takedowns then he should have a clear edge once the fight hits the canvas. Roberts by submission is the official pick.
William Knight vs. Fabio Cherant
Knight, -180; Cherant, +155, DraftKings Sportsbook
Knight is coming off a decision loss to Da Un Jung in April. He is 9-2 professionally with eight of his nine wins coming by knockout. He is a specimen of an athlete and looks more like a bodybuilder than an MMA fighter. Aside from his obvious knockout power, he likes to mix in some wrestling as he averages over two and a half takedowns per 15 minutes. However, his wrestling is not very technical, and it mostly comes from just muscling his opponents to the ground, which typically will not work against any legitimate opponent. His opponent in this matchup is Cherant, who is coming off a first round “submission” loss to Alonzo Menifield. Cherant jumped guillotine and once he was on bottom, he basically just got squished with shoulder pressure from Menifield before tapping out. Cherant is more of a grappler as five of his seven career victories have come by submission. On the feet, neither guy is technical, but I expect them both to have success with some heavy leg kicks as Knight tends to work the calf kicks and Cherant is more reliable to attack the body and head. I would categorize Cherant as a live underdog but due to his low volume and ability to wind up on bottom in this matchup, I cannot favor him to win the fight. Knight by knockout is the official pick but he is riskier than you would like when paying that type of price tag.
Bea Malecki vs. Josiane Nunes
Malecki, -155; Nunes, +135, DraftKings Sportsbook
Malecki is coming off a decision victory over Veronica Macedo her last time out in March of last year. She is just 4-0 professionally with two of her four wins coming by submission. However, I would not consider her a grappler and she has yet to shoot a takedown in either of her UFC fights. Honestly, I do not see any areas that she looks good aside from just being extremely long for the division. Even still, she struggles to maintain distance and use her length to her advantage. She was able to withstand Macedo but that was after getting pieced up for seven minutes by the much smaller Macedo until she gassed out hard. Her opponent in this matchup is Nunes, who is making her UFC debut and is 7-1 prospect with six of her seven wins coming by way of knockout. She is not a prospect that I am high on either, but she at least has good leg kicks and a powerful one-two combination which should be enough in this matchup. She is the much smaller fighter, but I do not trust Malecki to maintain range and she is a liability defensively. This is a sloppy matchup which has a wide range of outcomes, but I favor the much more powerful and better defensively underdog. Nunes by knockout is the official pick.
Brian Kelleher vs. Domingo Pilarte
Kelleher, -170; Pilarte, +150, DraftKings Sportsbook
Kelleher is coming off a decision loss to Ricky Simon in February. “Boom” Kelleher is a veteran gatekeeper with legitimate finishing potential. 18 of his 22 victories have come inside the distance. He packs power in his punches and has one of the best guillotine chokes in the division. He struggles against good wrestlers and technical strikers but typically takes care of business against the unproven up and comers that do not have that skillset. Pilarte is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Journey Newsome last year that was later overturned to a no contest. Pilarte is a former Dana White’s Contender Series winner who I thought could have a chance to develop into something in the UFC. It’s possible he still can but so far, I was dead wrong. He has a win over Adrian Yanez years ago in LFA and he submitted Vince Morales on the aforementioned Dana White’s Contender Series. He is very long for the division but like Malecki, he does not know how to use his length to his advantage outside of grappling. He is an aggressive submission grappler and that could be a potential path to victory for him in this matchup. But I do not see him winning minutes here as he is underwhelming on the feet and gives up position regularly in grappling exchanges. Kelleher by submission is the official pick.
Luis Saldana vs. Austin Lingo
Saldana, -120; Lingo, +100, DraftKings Sportsbook
Saldana is coming off a controversial decision victory over Jordan Griffin in his UFC debut in April. He trains out of the MMA Lab in Phoenix and comes from a striking background. He is very long for the division and unlike the Pilarte and Malecki that we talked about earlier, Saldana has a good understanding of distance management and uses his length well in striking exchanges. He is constantly switching stances and mixing in some low kicks with sharp straight punches. Where he struggles is defending the takedowns as that has been an issue for him on the regional scene and in his UFC debut against Griffin. Fortunately for him, Austin Lingo is not much of a wrestler. Lingo is coming off a decision victory over Jacob Kilburn his last time out in January. He is a powerful boxer with legitimate knockout power. However, he is one-dimensional, and Saldana should have a significant speed advantage to go along with his reach. Lingo really struggled with the footwork and speed of Youssef Zalal in his UFC debut, and I could see Saldana giving him similar problems outside of the takedowns. I expect this to be a striking match and I favor Saldana slightly due to the length, speed and footwork. Saldana by decision is the official pick.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval
Pantoja, -180; Royval, +155, DraftKings Sportsbook
Pantoja is coming off a decision victory over Manel Kape in February. He has been a top-tier contender in the Flyweight division for the past few years and is still considered to be on the cusp of a title shot. He is an extremely well-rounded fighter with good boxing and sharp leg kicks to go along with a certified ground game as he holds a black belt in BJJ. He has a tendency to get baited into wars which is likely to happen in this matchup as Royval invites chaos into every fight. Royval is coming off a first-round TKO against Brandon Moreno in November as his shoulder popped out and he could not continue. Say what you want about the fight IQ of Royval but he is one of the most exciting fighters on the roster and has serious finishing potential in every matchup. He is an improving striker and a dangerous submission grappler that is always looking to find a finish. The biggest concern with Royval is that he fights with his hands down much of the time which is a recipe to get knocked out although it has yet to happen outside of the shoulder injury his last fight. He also is not afraid to give up position in order to go for submissions or take an unorthodox approach in scrambling exchanges. Again, this is why we love him, but it may not be the optimal approach especially when facing someone as talented as Pantoja. Overall, I expect this fight to be fireworks from the opening bell with multiple grappling exchanges and both guys having some success in the striking as well. I favor Pantoja as the more experienced and more well-rounded fighter and see him getting his hand raised in this fight. Pantoja by decision is the official pick but Royval is always a strong underdog to target on DraftKings as his path to victory almost always results in a finish.
Vinc Pichel vs. Austin Hubbard
Pichel, -110; Hubbard, -110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Pichel is coming off a decision victory over Jim Miller last August. He is a respectable veteran who has only lost in the UFC to Gregor Gillespie who is highly regarded as the best wrestler in the division. Pichel has made a career of being very well-rounded as he does not have any major weakness in his game. He will keep the striking competitive for as long as he needs to before mixing in the wrestling and grinding on his opponents to wear them down. He averages 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes and that should be key in this matchup against Hubbard. Hubbard is coming off a decision victory over UFC newcomer, Dakota Bush in April. He has had a brutal stretch of matchmaking but continues to improve despite having a 58% takedown defense. It is tough for me to see where Hubbard has any real advantages in this matchup outside of pure cardio. He is susceptible to calf kicks and takedowns and his defensive grappling still needs to get better if he wants to level up in this division. These are all holes that I see Pichel taking advantage of. Pichel by decision is the official pick and he is a solid target this week on DraftKings as his win condition relies on multiple takedowns and control time.
Trevin Jones vs. Saidyokub Kakhramonov
No line
Jones is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Mario Bautista in March. He came into the UFC with more of a grappling pedigree as he holds a black belt in BJJ under Robert Drysdale and is a former No-Gi world champion. However, it has been the power in his hands that has helped him succeed at the UFC level of late with back-to-back knockout performances. He has had little time to prepare for this opponent as he has had multiple fighters fall out this week before getting matched up with Kakhramonov who will be making his UFC debut. Kakhramonov comes from a striking background and has legitimate knockout power for this weight class. He is 8-2 professionally and is currently on a two-fight win streak with both of those coming by knockout. He does not seem to be the most technically skilled fighter, but the power is evident when he lands on his opponents. There is little footage of him grappling and I find it hard to believe he can hang with Jones if the fight hits the mat. This should be fireworks and both fighters are capable of finishing, which makes this a good fight to target both sides on DraftKings. I favor Jones due to experience and more ways to win but it is not a confident lean and either guy can finish here. Jones by submission is the official pick.
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Chase Sherman vs. Parker Porter
Sherman, -190; Porter, +160, DraftKings Sportsbook
Sherman is coming off a decision loss to Andrei Arlovski in April. He has now lost four of his last five fights in the UFC with his lone win coming by knockout over Ike Villanueva. He is someone that I want no business in backing as a favorite in basically any matchup. On a positive note, he is aggressive with his striking and does carry some power as 14 of his professional 15 victories have come by knockout. Due to his reckless style, he eats many shots coming back his way and has been knocked out four times in his career as well. Porter is coming off a decision victory over Josh Parisian last November. He is someone that I am not very impressed with but credit to him as he looked much better than expected over 15 minutes in his last fight. I do not have a strong read on him as a fighter or this matchup in general as it is a low-level heavyweight clash that is likely to get sloppy at times. I feel comfortable targeting both sides of this matchup but neither guy should be a core piece of your builds this week. Sherman by knockout is the official pick.
Mark Madsen vs. Clay Guida
Madsen, -165; Guida, +145, DraftKings Sportsbook
Madsen is coming off a decision victory over Austin Hubbard in March of 2020. He is just 2-0 in the UFC but 10-0 as a professional. He comes from an Olympic wrestling background, and it is obvious that is his game plan in every fight. He has been successful wrestling at the UFC level as he averages over eight takedowns per 15 minutes. However, he needs to be more active when he lands those takedowns, and his cardio is a big concern. Guida is a decent wrestler in his own right as he averages nearly 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. I expect Madsen to be the one landing takedowns here and see him winning round one at a high clip. On the flip side though, based on what we have seen from his cardio, he is likely losing round three at a decent clip as well and we know Guida is going to bring it for a full 15 minutes if needed. Madsen is still a strong target on DraftKings as he is very likely to land multiple takedowns and bank some control time. But not knowing if his cardio has improved has me considering Guida a live underdog in this spot. I still feel fine comfortably targeting Madsen as a core piece in builds as the upside is clear, but he is not a lock to win by any means. Madsen by decision is the official pick.
Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Cannonier, -155; Gastelum, +135, DraftKings Sportsbook
Cannonier is coming off a decision loss to Robert Whittaker last October. He is 13-5 professionally with nine of his wins coming by knockout. His power is very evident in his strikes especially since moving down to the Middleweight division. He needs to keep the fight standing to cover his price tag and even if he does, I am not sold on him knocking out Gastelum, which has never happened before. Lastly, his takedown defense is just 54% and despite most of those coming at Light Heavyweight, it is still a weakness in his game. Gastelum is also coming off a decision loss to Whittaker but his went for five rounds in April. He has lost four of his last five fights but that has come against the top of this division. Gastelum should be competitive in the striking, but he will need to close the distance as the smaller fighter and avoid the heavy leg kicks and power punches of Cannonier. His best path to victory would be to come in with a wrestle heavy approach similar to his game plan against Ian Heinisch. If he mixes in the takedowns, then that could be enough to win rounds if the striking is as competitive as I expect. Lastly, Gastelum should have a cardio advantage and has five round experience which could be a difference maker here. Gastelum by decision is the official pick and this is a fight that I would target both sides on DraftKings with a moderate lean to the underdog.
