Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 33 in Las Vegas. Coming off an awesome fight night with stacked talent, we have one of the lower-level fight cards we have seen this year. Despite this card lacking in star power, we have a lot of Dana White Contender Series fighters and unproven talents, which will likely increase variance, and that should change how we approach this slate.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Ryan Benoit vs. Zarrukh Adashev
Benoit, -130; Adashev, +110
Benoit is coming off a decision loss against Tim Elliott in July of last year. He has lost three of his last four and is currently on a two-fight losing streak. Benoit is a fighter that I have always been low on in general as he never seems to do enough to secure rounds. He always finds himself in close decisions because he is typically getting outworked and outlanded on the feet. He also comes from a wrestling background, but you would never know it as he has been taken down at least once in every UFC fight and rarely looks to land takedowns himself. He does have legitimate knockout power with eight of his 10 wins coming that way. Adashev is coming off a decision loss to Su Mudaerji in January. Adashev is just 3-3 as a professional and 0-2 in the UFC. He is similar to Benoit in that he is a low volume striker with some worse wrestling. He is borderline UFC level but could be competitive in the striking against Benoit. This is a low-level fight and I favor Benoit’s power and experience, so I have to side with him in this matchup. Lastly, Adashev fights with his hands down and Benoit does have the power to put him out if he connects clean. Benoit by knockout is the official pick.
Orion Cosce vs. Phillip Rowe
Cosce, -190; Rowe, +165
Cosce is coming off a win on Dana White’s Contender Series last August where he won by TKO versus Matt Dixon in the third round. He is currently an undefeated prospect at 7-0 with six of his seven wins coming by knockout. He does have some legitimate power and will always be live for a knockout but clearly has some work to do if he wants to remain in the UFC for long. His striking is very stiff as he loads up and swings one at a time rather than combinations. He is a former high school wrestling state champion, but he seems to be more comfortable striking in most fights and willing to rely on his power. Rowe is coming off a decision loss to Gabriel Green in February. I thought he looked great in the first round, but he was damaged to the leg and shortly after his cardio failed him as well. He is extremely long for the division and will have an insane nine-inch reach advantage in this matchup. His striking is not very technical, but he does carry some power with those long arms. He is also a brown belt in BJJ and has a decent submission game. This is a low-level fight, but a lot of times these types of sloppy fights score very well for DraftKings, and I expect to see someone get finished. I would recommend getting exposure to both sides as Cosce has power and Rowe is fragile. However, Rowe is willing to throw more and will have a submission grappling advantage as well. Cosce is overrated in general, and I trust Rowe to be more active and be the better minute winner in this matchup despite thinking he could get knocked out here as well. Rowe by decision is the official pick.
Ronnie Lawrence vs. Trevin Jones
Lawrence, -140; Jones, +120
Lawrence is coming off an impressive UFC debut victory over Vince Cacheros where he largely dominated leading to a third-round TKO victory in February. I like to refer to him as the mini Merab Dvalishvili of the bantamweight division. He is an aggressive wrestler who will land takedowns in volume and has cardio for days. His striking is not great, and he does get hit but has proven to be durable and is typically only striking to set up his next takedown entry. Meanwhile, Jones is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Mario Bautista that surprised many people, myself included. Jones has now won back-to-back fights by knockout and is 2-0 in the UFC despite the first win being overturned due to testing positive for marijuana. He is a well-rounded prospect that seems to be dangerous wherever the fight goes as he has four wins by submission and holds a black belt under Robert Drysdale. The biggest factor is how many takedowns can Jones defend because we know the game plan of Lawrence will be to avoid striking exchanges and land multiple takedowns. Jones is dangerous enough on the mat but will likely be losing minutes on his back. He should look to stuff as many takedowns as possible as he should have a clear speed and power advantage in the striking. This is an excellent fight to target as Lawrence is DraftKings gold and will score multiple takedowns and control time in a victory and Jones is a live underdog with finishing potential. I think Lawrence wrestles him to a decision victory but I want one of these guys in every lineup this week.
Ashley Yoder vs. Jinh Yu Frey
Yoder, -135; Frey, +115
Yoder is coming off a decision loss to Angela Hill her last time out in March, and she has now lost three of her last four fights coming into this matchup. However, this going from Hill to Frey is a pretty dramatic step down in competition. Yoder is nothing spectacular, but I do feel she should have Frey covered in multiple areas. Both fighters are low volume on the feet, but Yoder is a little more active and she should hold a grappling advantage as well. I am not going to spend much time on this matchup because of the low activity that both fighters have historically shown. Their pace along with the matchup really limits the ceiling of DraftKings score for the winner. There is a chance that Yoder can bank some control time, but she typically does not wrestle as much as she should. But I still favor her to get the win while favoring other fights to target for such a large slate. Yoder by decision is the official pick.
Kai Kamaka vs. Danny Chavez
Kamaka, -115; Chavez, -105
Kamaka is coming off a split-decision loss to TJ Brown in May and is currently on a two-fight losing streak. He is a good boxer with and comes from a wrestling background as well and averages 2.66 takedowns per 15 minutes. The biggest flaw for Kamaka has always been his questionable cardio as he has noticeably slowed down in multiple fights. Chavez is coming off a decision loss to Jared Gordon his last time out in February. Chavez is primarily a striker with legitimate knockout power and is always aggressive and looking to finish. This matchup has the makings for a banger as both guys are willing dance partners and this fight should play out mostly on the feet. If the fight does hit the ground, I expect Kamaka to be the one to take it there, but Chavez has shown good takedown defense outside of giving up two takedowns to Gordon in his last fight. I expect both guys to have moments on the feet and it should be competitive for as long as it lasts. I consider the striking to be even as Chavez has more powerful kicks, but Kamaka is more technical with a strong jab. I lean Kamaka as the younger and improving fighter with the more well-rounded game as well. Kamaka by decision is the official pick.
Rafa Garcia vs. Chris Gruetzemacher
Garcia, -270; Gruetzemacher, +230
Garcia is coming off his UFC debut in March when he lost a decision to Nasrat Haqparast. He gave a decent account himself considering he took the fight on short notice and debuted against a legitimate up and comer in the division. That was the first loss of Garcia’s professional career, and he has proven to be very durable. He is a well-rounded fighter with seven of his 11 wins coming by submission and should have a wrestling and grappling advantage in this matchup. Gruetzemacher is coming off a first-round knockout against Alexander Hernandez last October. That was after coming off a two-and-a-half-year layoff as well. At 35 years old, things are not looking great for Gruetzemacher. He has always struggled to defend takedowns and now is facing a guy who is likely to take him down repeatedly. I could see Garcia landing multiple takedowns and threatening with a submission as Gruetzemacher has been submitted three times in his career as well. Garcia by decision is the official pick but he has upside to finish as well especially fi Gruetzemacher looks shot.
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Collin Anglin
Baghdasaryan, -145; Anglin, +125
Both fighters are coming off a decision win on Dana White’s Contender Series last fall. On one hand, we have Anglin, who was able to outlast his opponent and dominate him later in the fight despite taking some heavy shots in the first round. Anglin comes from a high school wrestling background and has a decent ground game but is extremely hittable on the feet and does not have much to offer in the striking realm. On the other hand, we have Baghdasaryan, who is an absolute firecracker. He is extremely powerful with his sharp boxing and powerful kicking game. Four of his five career wins have come by knockout inside the first round. Anglin will need to get this fight to the ground as soon as possible to avoid eating some damaging blows on the feet. It is possible Anglin could get the fight down and tire out Baghdasaryan with his grappling but more than likely he gets killed on the feet early in this fight. This is a great fight to target as the winner should score well, but I would lean Baghdasaryan. Baghdasaryan by knockout is the official pick.
Nicco Montano vs. Wu Yanan
Montano, -225; Yanan, +185
Montano is coming off a two-year layoff since she lost a decision to Julianna Pena in July of 2019. That was after taking another two-year layoff after winning the Ultimate Fighter against Roxanne Modafferi back in 2017. She is just 4-3 as a professional and the inactivity is a major concern along with her pulling out of multiple fights. However, she should have her opponent covered in this matchup. Yanan is coming off a decision loss to Joselyne Edwards her last time out in January. She is just 1-3 in the UFC with her only win coming against Lauren Mueller who is no longer with the promotion. Yanan throws decent volume on the feet, but she is likely to be outworked by Montano who will be more active and likely able to land takedowns as well. Despite the concerns with Montano, it is hard not to see her as the better fighter in almost every area. Montana by decision is the official pick but she is one of the more expensive options on DraftKings and I prefer other fighters in her price range.
Niklas Stolze vs. Jared Gooden
Stolze, -200; Gooden, +170
Stolze is coming off a decision loss to Ramazan Emeev in his UFC debut last July. He is 12-4 with nine of his wins coming inside the distance. He has a well-rounded skillset and is more of a grappler with a decent ground game. However, I would still consider him to be a low-level talent and would like to see more from him in terms of volume and minute winning potential. Gooden is stepping in on short notice to replace Mounir Lazzez. Gooden is coming off a decision loss to Abubakar Nurmagomedov in March and is currently 0-2 in the UFC. But this seems like a good rebound spot and a nice opportunity to get his first win in the promotion. Gooden will have a power advantage along with a significant volume advantage as well. Gooden’s biggest issues are that he is extremely hittable on the feet, and he is liable to get taken down and controlled against decent wrestlers. In theory, Stolze could take advantage of those holes, but he is going to have to prove it to me to justify being the betting favorite in this matchup. In terms of DraftKings, Stolze is an easy lock in cash games at only $7,000 and a -200 favorite currently. At that cheap price along with the potential to wrestle, he projects as a strong play that will likely come with heavy ownership. Just be sure to get some exposure to Gooden as well as he should have a big advantage in the striking exchanges, and you will get a ton of leverage fading Stolze. Stolze by decision is the official pick.
Bryan Barberena vs. Jason Witt
Barberena, -255; Witt, +215
Barberena is coming off a decision win over Anthony Ivy his last time out in September. Despite the win, I actually didn’t think he looked that good. After having moments in both of his previous fights against Vicente Luque and Randy Brown, he failed to put away Ivy who was cut by the UFC and was finished on the regional scene in the first round in his most recent fight in May. Barberena will have a significant striking and durability advantage in this matchup and needs to keep this fight on the feet for the path of least resistance. Witt is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Matthew Semelsberger in March. Witt has always had some decent tools, but his durability is a serious problem having been knocked out five times in his professional career. He needs to get this fight to the ground early and often and he does have the skillset to do that if he can avoid getting hurt on the feet long enough. Ivy was able to land five takedowns against Barberena and Witt is a much better wrestler. This is a good fight to target as Witt’s path to victory involves a heavy wrestling gameplan, but a Barberena win is likely an early knockout. Sadly enough, the knockout is the most likely outcome in this fight as I simply cannot trust the chin of Witt. Barberena by knockout is the official pick.
Kyung Ho Kang vs. Rani Yahya
Kang, -135; Yahya, +115
Kang is coming off nearly a two-year layoff having last fought in December of 2019 when he won a split-decision against Pingyuan Liu. He is currently on a three-fight win streak and 11 of his 17 professional wins have come by submission. That may not be the smartest game plan in this matchup though as he squares of against BJJ specialist Yahya. Yahya is coming off a second-round submission victory over Ray Rodriguez in March. Of Yahya’s 27 professional wins, 21 have come by submission. He does not have much striking offense or defense and is basically drawing dead if the fight plays out standing or is tied heading to the final round. His cardio has failed him repeatedly and at almost 37 years old, I doubt that is changing any time soon. Yahya’s path to victory is getting the fight to the ground early and finding a submission. As dangerous as he is on the mat, that is always within the range of outcomes, but more than likely Kang is able to dictate where the fight goes and has good enough grappling to stay alive until Yahya gasses out. Kang by decision is the official pick but I prefer other fighters in his price range.
Cheyanne Buys vs. Gloria De Paula
Buys, -160; De Paula, +140
Buys is coming off an all-time stunt against Montserrat Ruiz in her UFC debut in March. She allowed Ruiz to basically hold her in a headlock for 15 minutes and lost a decision. Part of that was poor fight IQ but also just allowing Ruiz to dictate where the fight took place. Fortunately for her, she is facing a boxer in Gloria De Paula in this matchup. De Paula is also coming off a loss in her UFC debut to Jinh Yu Frey in March. De Paula has some sharp hands and legitimate power for this division, but she has a liability to get stuck on her back in the grappling realm. I expect this to play out primarily on the feet where I give a slight lean to De Paula early in the fight with Buys likely having a cardio advantage and taking over later. Overall, this is a competitive striking match that could go either way which basically screams pass all around. Buys by decision is the official pick.
Sean Strickland vs. Uriah Hall
Strickland, -220; Hall, +180
Strickland is coming off a decision victory over Krzysztof Jotko in May. He is currently on a four-fight win streak with two of those four wins coming by knockout. Strickland is a good boxer with a well-rounded game, but his level of competition leaves more to be desired on his current run. Any time he has stepped up in competition he has lost. Now, that obviously doesn’t mean he can’t win here, but Hall is one of the better strikers that he has faced and has legitimate fight ending power. Hall is coming off the freakish leg injury TKO victory over Chris Weidman in April. Of Hall’s 17 professional wins, 13 have come by knockout and this is his path to victory in this matchup as well. He is not a good minute winner and typically doesn’t throw as much as you would like but he is always live to land something heavy or a flashy head kick knockout. I favor Strickland as he has proven to be durable and is a good boxer that will throw more volume. I expect him to win the majority of minutes while acknowledging Hall’s path to victory as well. Strickland by knockout is the official pick but I would get some exposure to both sides and this week the main event is not a must play as I am expecting little to no takedowns or grappling here.
