Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 29 in Las Vegas. This card is packed with action as most of these matchups should be competitive and likely to end inside the distance, which is always exciting. As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Lara Procopio vs. Casey O’Neill
Procopio, -150; O’Neill, +130
Procopio is coming off a decision victory over Molly McCann in February. She is 7-1 professionally with her only loss coming in her UFC debut against talented prospect, Karol Rosa. She is a high-volume striker and holds a black belt in BJJ. We have not seen her defensive wrestling tested much in the UFC, but she was credited with seven takedowns against McCann and looked to defend well in the clinch in that fight as well. O’Neill is coming off a second-round TKO victory over Shana Dobson in her UFC debut in February. I was big on O’Neill in her debut, but that was mainly due to the clear grappling advantage over Shana Dobson. I am not convinced that she will have a wrestling or grappling advantage in this matchup, and she is going to be outgunned on the feet in terms of volume and technique. She likely needs to get this fight to the ground early and often and I am not confident she will be able to. Additionally, she is still very inexperienced and has yet to be tested at this level. If neither fighter lands takedowns and this turns into a 15-minute striking match, Procopio should cruise. Procopio by decision is the official pick and this is a decent fight to target as both fighters have the potential to land takedowns in volume.
Joaquim Silva vs. Rick Glenn
Silva, -125; Glenn, +105
Silva is coming off a second-round knockout loss at the hands of Nasrat Haqparast back in 2019. He was looking good early in the fight and just got caught by a monster left hand from Haqparast that took his soul. In general, Silva is a dangerous striker with heavy leg kicks and six of his 11 career wins coming by knockout. He is your typical kill-or-be-killed style of fighter as he is dangerous in multiple areas but not great defensively and does not have great cardio either. Glenn is coming off nearly a three-year layoff after losing a decision to Kevin Aguilar back in 2018 and is now moving up to the 155-pound division. As with most of these situations, it is difficult to know what to expect from Glenn coming off such a long layoff. Additionally, this is also his first time back in the octagon after major hip surgery in 2019. When he is at his best, Glenn is dangerous as well and put an absolute beating on Gavin Tucker back in 2017. However, he has also had poor performances against some lower-level talent and has some serious red flags coming into this matchup. Both guys are untrustworthy, but I prefer Silva being more fresh and more dangerous on the feet. Silva by knockout is the official pick.
Josh Parisian vs. Roque Martinez
Parisian, -125; Martinez, +105
Parisian is coming off a decision loss to Parker Porter in his UFC debut in November. They put on a grueling pace for heavyweights, and Parisian just could not hold up after the first round as the cardio was not there. He is typically a knockout in round one or bust type of fighter but recently has been working to improve on his endurance. His opponent, Martinez, is 0-2 in the UFC and the only reason he is on the roster is because they needed to feed someone to Alexandr Romanov and signed Martinez on short notice. Martinez is legitimately one of the least talented fighters on the roster. It’s not like Parisian is some superstar, but this is clearly his fight to lose. As with all sloppy heavyweight matchups, both fighters are capable of winning by knockout as this is a very high-variance fight, but I prefer Parisian as the more proven talent with better durability. Parisian by knockout is the official pick and he is a high-risk, high-upside play in the mid-range this week.
Seung-Woo Choi vs. Julian Erosa
Choi, -140; Erosa, +120
Choi is coming off a decision victory over Youssef Zalal his last time out in February where he came through for us as an underdog. Choi comes from a high-level striking background and is a former Muay Thai champion. He is a powerful striker with five of his nine career wins coming by knockout although he has yet to earn a finish at the UFC level, but it is likely coming. Meanwhile, Erosa is coming off a first-round knockout win over Nate Landwehr his last time out in February and is now on a three-fight win streak. Erosa is well-rounded and aggressive. He will throw in high-volume and try to command the center of the octagon. This makes for a very fun fight as both guys typically like to be the aggressor. Erosa should have a grappling advantage, but I am not convinced that he will be able to take Choi down and control him long enough to get his ground game going. Choi has improved his takedown defense and is good at working back to his feet. He is also very physical and Erosa will likely have problems trying to bully him against the cage. I expect this to be primarily a striking match where both fighters have holes defensively but the key factor on the feet is the durability. Choi has been knocked out once on the regional scene but is still pretty durable whereas Erosa has been knocked out in four of his career losses. I expect an exciting battle in this one, but I have to favor Choi based on durability, but you should target both sides of this fight as the winner should score well.
Khaos Williams vs. Matthew Semelsberger
Williams, -170; Semelsberger, +150
Williams is coming off a decision loss to Michel Pereira his last time out in December that snapped an eight-fight winning streak. Williams has obvious knockout power as he burst on the scene in the UFC after knocking out Alex Morono in the first round in his UFC debut and following it up with another first-round knockout over Abdul Razak Al Hassan in November of 2020. Williams did look better against Pereira in a sense as he seemed capable of winning minutes rather than just being an early knockout or bust fighter. However, he is still fairly one-dimensional and anyone with decent wrestling should be able to control him at will. Semelsberger is coming off a first-round knockout in March over Jason Witt his last time out. He is now on a five-fight win streak and five of his eight career wins have come by knockout. He is not as technical a striker as Williams, but he makes up for it in aggression and pace. He should also be the better wrestler in this matchup should he choose to go that route. I don’t think we can rely on Semelsberger to come in and wrestle repeatedly, and he is outmatched on the feet. This is a fight that you can target both sides as the winner likely wins by knockout, but I favor Williams due to the power, technical and durability advantage. Williams by knockout is the official pick.
Virna Jandiroba vs. Kanako Murata
Jandiroba, -140; Murata, +120
Jandiroba is coming off a close decision loss to Mackenzie Dern her last time out in December at UFC 256. It was only her second career loss, the other coming against Carla Esparza back in 2019. Jandiroba is a high-level grappling specialist and averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes as well. She does not have much in the striking department, but she is typically only striking to set up her takedowns and get the fight where she is most comfortable and dangerous. Murata is coming off an impressive UFC debut victory over Randa Markos in November. She is 12-1 professionally and coming into this matchup on an eight-fight win streak. She is very physical for this division and comes from a high-level judo and wrestling background. She is going to be the better wrestler in this matchup which has me concerned since Jandiroba is priced as a favorite. Jandiroba’s likely only advantage is pure BJJ, but if she is likely going to be the one being taken down and fishing for submissions off her back. Her grappling is good enough to find a submission off her back but if she cannot then she is likely losing minutes while Murata banks top control. Murata’s physical advantage should play a key factor as well in the clinch exchanges and scrambling as well. This is going to be a competitive fight, but I have to favor Murata as the stronger fighter with better wrestling since that is where I expect the fight to take place. Jandiroba should have multiple opportunities for an armbar or another submission off her back but as long as Murata avoids getting submitted then I think she gets her hand raised. Murata by decision is the official pick and she is a strong underdog to target due to her wrestling and control time upside.
Aleksa Camur vs. Nicolae Negumereanu
Camur, -250; Negumereanu, +210
Camur is coming off a decision loss to William Knight his last time out in September, his first professional loss. He is a former Dana White’s Contender Series winner and five of his six professional wins have come by knockout. He is a training partner of Stipe Miocic and that is single-handedly the only reason this line is so inflated. Camur has knockout power just like any other striker in the bigger divisions in the UFC, but he is not an elite striker, plays little defense and is a complete liability in the wrestling and grappling department. His opponent, Negumereanu, is coming off nearly a 2.5-year layoff since his UFC debut when he lost a decision to Saparbek Safarov. That was the only fight in his career that went the full three rounds. I have a ton of interest in the underdog in this matchup as I already mentioned the concerns I have with Camur. Additionally, Negumereanu is just as live for a knockout on the feet as he has a heavy overhand right that he will constantly look for and six of his nine career wins have come by knockout. But the bigger reason why I have so much interest in him is because of the wrestling and grappling upside. He has shown the ability to land takedowns on the regional scene and I expect him to land takedowns in this matchup as Camur does not defend them well. He is also a Gracie blue belt in BJJ, which does not sound all that impressive but trust me, it’s way better than whatever the hell Camur has going on with his grappling. This is a good fight to target as the winner likely earns a finish, but I would make it a point to be overweight on the underdog. Negumereanu by submission is the official pick.
Dhiego Lima vs. Matt Brown
Lima, -160; Brown, +140
Lima is coming off a decision loss to Belal Muhammad in February that snapped a three-fight win streak. He didn’t look terrible against Muhammad and even beat up his legs early but ultimately lost 30-27 on all three judges’ scorecards. In general, he is an uninspiring fighter, and it’s tough to have confidence backing him as a favorite in most matchups including this one. He is well-rounded enough but is low volume on the feet and holds a brown belt in BJJ but only averages just over one takedown per 15 minutes. Brown is coming off a decision loss to Carlos Condit in January and is now on a two-fight losing streak. He is always going to be dangerous on the feet as he has some serious knockout power with seven of his last eight victories coming by knockout. He will likely be the aggressor in this matchup as he likes to move forward, and Lima is comfortable beating up the legs and sitting back waiting to counter. I do have some interest in the underdog in Brown as he is clearly the more dangerous fighter and Lima has been knocked out four times in his career. But it gets tough to put your faith in 40-year-old dudes that are likely knockout or bust. There is a lot of risk here as both fighters can be finished but I lean with Brown as I know he will be more aggressive and more powerful. Brown by knockout is the official pick.
Bruno Silva vs. Wellington Turman
Silva, -135; Turman, +115
Silva is coming off nearly a three-year layoff after a long USADA suspension and will be making his UFC debut. He is the former M-1 Challenge Middleweight champion prior to coming over to the UFC. He has legitimate knockout power with 16 of his 19 career wins coming by knockout and most of them inside the first round. However, he is very one-dimensional, and we have seen it time and time again with knockout-or-bust fighters. Not to mention the long layoff and no longer juicing are major red flags. Additionally, he has poor defensive grappling and has been submitted five times in his career which should play a factor in this matchup. Meanwhile, Turman is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Andrew Sanchez in August of last year. Turman holds a black belt in BJJ and Muay Thai. He is young and improving and should have the better cardio in this matchup as well. He is not very active with his striking but has shown the ability to control people against the cage for extended periods and land takedowns with good control on the mat. He averages 2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes and if he can get this fight to the mat then he will have a massive advantage there. I legitimately have no idea why Silva is the favorite here aside from Turman getting knocked out in his last fight, but Turman has proven to be durable throughout his career and should be the more well-rounded fighter with a massive grappling edge. Turman by submission is the official pick but even in a decision win, he should score well with multiple takedowns and control time. This is a great fight to target as Turman has the grappling upside and Silva has the early knockout upside so either way the winner should score very well.
Marlon Vera vs. Davey Grant
Vera, -200; Grant, +170
Vera is coming off a decision loss to Jose Aldo in December. Chito is a fighter that is hard to handicap correctly because he is not a good round winner, but he is an opportunistic finisher. On the feet, he is extremely durable but still gets hit way too much during striking exchanges. He is a black belt in BJJ and dangerous on the mat but hardly ever tries to take the fight there, and when he does he is typically unsuccessful in landing takedowns. In all six of his UFC fights that went the full 15 minutes, he lost. He won every fight that did not go the distance. That is just the type of fighter that he is, but it makes it tough to trust him as a massive favorite in this matchup especially since Grant beat him to the tune of 30-26 when they fought back in 2016. Grant is coming off an impressive second-round knockout win over Jonathan Martinez in March and is now on a three-fight win streak. Grant is more of a grappler as he averages 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and eight of his 13 career wins have come by submission. Grant is only a purple belt in BJJ but was able to defend submissions well while he was in Vera’s guard in the first fight, and I doubt that changes much this time around. I expect Grant to be in more dominant positions if the fight hits the mat but would consider Vera to have more of a chance to find a submission. On the feet, Grant has power and will throw from different angles which makes it tough to defend. Both fighters can be hit though which makes it an interesting clash as I would favor the durability of Vera in that regard. Overall, this is going to be competitive fight and it is tough not to see the value of Grant as he would have takedown and control time upside in a victory. However, he may have fallen in love with his hands a bit too much in his last few fights and that could get him into some trouble against Chito Vera. The line is wide, but I slightly favor Vera in this matchup with Grant being the better DFS play for the savings and potential to wrestle.
Serghei Spivac vs. Aleksei Oleinik
Spivac, -210; Oleinik, +175
Spivac is coming off a dominant performance over Jared Vanderaa in February and is now on a two-fight win streak. Spivac is someone that I always considered underrated in terms of Heavyweight skillset as he is more well rounded than most of the other low to mid-tiers of this division. He keeps up a decent pace for his size and mixes in the wrestling at 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is by no means an elite wrestler but is capable of controlling guys that do not have a solid wrestling skillset. On the flip side, he is likely to get exposed when facing the better wrestlers of this division similar to when he fought Marcin Tybura. Oleinik is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Chris Daukaus in February and is now on a two-fight losing streak with back-to-back knockout losses. In fact, his last five losses have all come by knockout and at almost 44 years old, he simply cannot take much damage before he wilts. He has been knocked out nine times in his career and it is clear that if he cannot threaten early with a submission then he will break. I do not want to understate the submission threat though as he is always dangerous to snatch up his patented Ezekiel choke. However, the most likely outcome is that Spivac avoids the early onslaught and breaks him down as the fight goes on and earns a finish. Spivac by knockout is the official pick.
Dan Ige vs. Chan-Sung Jung
Ige, -110; Jung, -110
Ige is coming off a crazy first-round knockout win over Gavin Tucker that took just 22 seconds. He is 7-2 in the UFC with his only two losses coming against Julio Arce in his UFC debut back in January of 2018 and against Calvin Kattar last July in his first main event. Ige is a very well-rounded fighter with good boxing and wrestling. He averages 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes and holds a black belt in BJJ. He will likely have a speed advantage while the fight plays out on the feet and is better at avoiding punches along with being the much more durable fighter. He will also hold a wrestling advantage in this matchup, but Jung is a very good grappler in his own right, so I am not sure if Ige will elect to go that route. Jung is coming off a decision loss to Brian Ortega back in October. His last three wins have all been first-round knockouts and all of his UFC wins have come inside the distance. He has undeniable power and good grappling, but I find it hard to see him finishing Ige who is extremely durable and has never been knocked out or submitted. Ige is the better minute winner in this matchup and if Jung cannot finish him then I do not see much of a path for him in this fight. Ige by decision is the official pick.
