Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC Vegas 29: Ige vs Korean Zombie. The UFC is back at the Apex in Vegas this weekend for a 12-fight slate following UFC 263 last weekend in front of a live crowd. While 12-fight slates have historically been the norm for MMA DFS, it feels like we’ve had so many 14-/15-fight slates or 10-fight slates this year with all the cancellations and rescheduled matchups, so it’s nice to have a more “normal” slate this weekend.
This slate is super interesting because of how closely lined the entirety of the card is, which leads to small favorites at expensive price tags and small underdogs at very cheap price tags. This feels like a weekend where there is a lot of merit to leaving salary on the table. If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out my video breakdown with Jon Kelly.
In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups.
High tier: Serghei Spivac, $9,200
On a slate where there aren’t a ton of massive favorites and there are plenty of fights that could see being competitive and going either way, Serghei Spivac vs. Aleksei Oleinik in the co-main event is a spot where I have a good amount of confidence in the favorite coming through. Spivak has a well-rounded skillset for heavyweight and is a top-10 fighter in the division who has proven to have average striking and a very strong top control/offensive wrestling game. Oleinik is a crafty veteran, but at this point in his career he’s 43 years old and has been knocked out five times in the last few years and only has around five minutes of cardio to get some sort of unorthodox choke and win the fight. I think Spivac has him covered in every facet of the game and he’s shown tremendous upside with 100-plus DK points in all three of his UFC wins.
Mid-tier: Lara Procopio, $8500
Procopio may be my favorite leverage play on this slate as I expect her opponent, Casey O’Neill, to see a good amount of ownership in a fight that many are perceiving to play out closely. However, I have a pretty strong stand here on Procopio and make her a decently sized favorite over O’Neill. The fighters have somewhat similar skillsets in the sense that they’re both grappler-first fighters, which we all know is the current DFS meta, but Procopio is clearly the superior fighter in my eyes. O’Neill was impressive in her debut, but it came against Shana Dobson, who historically has struggled to defend takedowns and is no longer with the UFC. Procopio has two UFC fights and has shown the ability to throw strikes in volume (165 significant strikes vs. Karol Rosa) and land takedowns in volume (seven takedowns vs. Molly McCann). Procopio is simply the better fighter here and I think she has some sneaky finishing upside in addition to the obvious takedown and control time path to a solid DFS score.
Low tier: Wellington Turman $7400
As mentioned throughout this article, there are a lot of very slight underdogs this weekend who are priced on DK in a spot where we normally see more sizable underdogs. Because of that, I think ownership will be relatively spread out. For me, my favorite cheap option this week is Turman, who is a grappling-first fighter and nearly a pick ‘em on the betting line at just 7.4K. He takes on Bruno SIlva, who makes his UFC debut coming over from the Russian M-1 promotion but has been suspended for two years due to a USADA violation. Turman is 1-2 in the UFC but deserved to get the nod against Karl Roberson in his debut and is a guy who has shown a decent sample of being reliable to wrestle his opponents. When watching tape on Silva it’s clear that he’s somebody who has struggled in the wrestling and grappling world, so there’s a clear path to victory here for Turman.
