Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC Vegas 29: Ige vs. Korean Zombie. After a fun PPV card in Arizona last weekend, the UFC returns to the Apex this weekend to host a 12-fight card headlined by a featherweight tilt between Dan Ige and the always-exciting Korean Zombie. Overall, this is certainly not my favorite card in the world, but there are a few fights that should be entertaining. In terms of my bets, it’s a pretty light week volume-wise just due to the fact that there are so many debutants making their first walk to the UFC octagon this weekend in addition to a bunch of fighters coming off extended layoffs. That said, I do have a few plays so let’s get to the bets!.
I’ll be writing this best bets article weekly with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets and occasionally including some leans if I don’t have three plays. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early prelims this weekend to answer any questions that subscribers may have. In addition to this article, Jon Kelly and I broke down this card on video from a DFS and betting perspective.
Lara Procopio (-155) vs. Casey O’Neill (+135)
Procopio entered the UFC in 2019 as a 6-0 fighter out of Brazil and was given an extremely tough opponent in Karol Rosa for her debut. While Procopio clearly lost to Rosa — who is undefeated inside the UFC cage — she showed the ability to throw tons of volume as she landed 165 significant strikes. After a few years off, Procopio returned last year and defeated Molly McCann in relatively dominant fashion, landing 7 takedowns en route to a lopsided victory. Procopio’s best quality is certainly her offensive wrestling and grappling game. While McCann isn’t a great wrestler by any stretch, she has largely only been dominated in that facet of the game by fighters who are extremely strong on the ground. Procopio also throws a ton of volume on the feet which is great, however she also plays very little defense and absorbed 170+ strikes from Rosa in her debut.
O’Neill is just 23 years old, fighting out of Australia with a 6-0 record after making good on her UFC debut back in February when she won via TKO against Shana Dobson. O’Neill has a lot of qualities that you’re looking for in a young WMMA prospect: Aggressiveness on the feet, and aggressiveness on the ground. She was able to have a lot of success in her debut grappling against Dobson which received a lot of praise, but Dobson has always struggled to defend takedowns and is now no longer with the UFC. While I think O’Neill has a decent amount of long-term potential and a good general strategy in most of her fights, she’s yet to really be tested by a competent grappler and I’m not sure that her technical ability is up to par with somebody like Procopio. O’Neill isn’t very heavy in top position and had a few sketchy moments in the Dobson fight including a first-round reversal by Dobson that allowed her to mount O’Neill for a split second.
As I mentioned, I like O’Neill’s game in general. Her standup is certainly a work in progress and well-below average at this point, but she’s decent at pressuring her opponents and very aggressive in pursuit of grappling exchanges. That said, Procopio is easily the best grappler she’s ever faced, and I think Procopio is at a technical wrestling, BJJ, and strength advantage when this fight hits the ground, and also a decent favorite on the feet just because of the sheer volume we know she’s capable of landing. This line opened around -110 and that was just a ton of volume on the Procopio side. Unfortunately, I was traveling this week and missed out on that number, but I do still think there’s a bit of value left here on the more tested, better fighter.
Bet: Lara Procopio -154 1x till -160 (Placed June 18)
Bruno Silva (-125) vs. Wellington Turman (+105)
Silva was originally scheduled to make his UFC debut in June of 2019 against Deron Winn, but was suspended two years by USADA following his M-1 championship win over Artem Frolov in Russia. Stylistically, Silva is your classic plodding, powerful Brazilian striker. He has a good frame for the division and was able to physically bully opponents previously (prior to the PED suspension). Silva carries a lot of knockout power which is evident in his record with 16 of 19 professional wins coming via KO. However, I think there are significant holes in his game in both the cardio and grappling department. Prior to the Frolov KO, Silva was taken down numerous times and gave up a bunch of dominant positions.
Turman is coming off his first ever loss via KO in his last time out against Andrew Sanchez, and is now looking to improve his UFC record back to even as he’s 1-2 coming into this weekend. Turman lost his UFC debut to Karl Roberson in a decision that I personally disagreed with, and then was able to beat Markus Perez over the course of 15 minutes in his second fight and first victory. Stylistically, Turman is a grinder who is looking to push opponents against the cage and take them down before riding out dominant positions. Turman has averaged over 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a good control game. His striking is below average in my eyes, but nothing disastrous. Coming off a KO loss it seems fairly obvious that Turman would be looking to grapple here.
Betting Turman as the underdog in this spot feels relatively straightforward to me. We have a one-dimensional power striker making his UFC debut coming off a two-year suspension for steroids against a younger grappler who has had competitive fights (and wins) at the UFC level. I’m not blown away by Turman or anything, but I think he has a solid gameplan in most of his fights and has the skills to grind opponents out via wrestling. Sanchez was such a tough matchup for Turman his last time out because he was simply the better wrestler and striker, whereas I fully expect Turman to be the better wrestler in this matchup and he should pursue takedowns in bulk. I’ll take the more proven fighter as the underdog here any day.
Wellington Turman +110 1.5x till +110, 1x till +100 (Placed June 18)
