Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane. The UFC had a wild 2021, and it was nice to get back in the swing of things with a fight night last weekend, but I can’t wait for the first PPV event of 2022.
We currently have just 13 fights scheduled for Saturday night’s event in Anaheim, including two five-round title fights. In the co-main event, Brandon Moreno and Deivison Figueiredo will complete their trilogy for the flyweight championship. In the main event, Francis Ngannou and Cyril Gane will be unifying their heavyweight titles, as Ngannou enters the matchup as the undisputed champion and Gane holds an interim belt. With such a big slate that features multiple five-round fights, there is no shortage of great plays for DFS purposes. I’ll be in the FTNDaily Discord leading up to Saturday’s slate to discuss last-minute changes and additional general slate strategy.
If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.
In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups.
High tier: Jack Della Maddalena $9200
There are some weeks where I think there is a clear-cut top option at the top of the salary options for DFS, but this week isn’t one of them. Despite there being 13 fights on the slate, there is no option above $9K that I feel is a “must-play” on DraftKings. In fact, I may be underweight to every expensive option on the board outside of Ilia Topuria and Jack Della Maddalena. Topuria is an obvious great play as the biggest favorite on the slate with wrestling upside, but he is very expensive and figures to be the highest-owned fighter in the price range. Della Maddalena makes his UFC debut on the prelims this weekend and is lined as a nearly 75% favorite with a strong implied chance to win inside the distance, according to the odds. Maddalena’s opponent, Pete Rodriguez, is also making his UFC debut this weekend and only has four professional bouts under his belt. Maddalena is the more polished striker in this matchup and is very live for an early knockout win.
Mid-tier: Tony Gravely $8900
Gravely is coming off a disappointing performance against Nate Manness where he appeared to be in the driver’s seat for the majority of the fight before getting knocked out, but I’m ready to go back to the well this weekend. Gravely is always an option in consideration for our DFS lineups due to his extreme wrestling output: He lands well over five takedowns per 15 minutes. Takedowns and control time are the current meta in MMA DFS, and Gravely possesses both the skills and opponent this week to put up a massive score. The concern with Gravely is always his tendency to fall apart late in fights and make poor decisions, but with 13 fights on the card, I’m less worried about his win equity and more worried about his potential ceiling. This is also a great leverage spot because as of Thursday, it appears that Gravely’s opponent, Saimon Oliveira, may be one of the most-owned underdogs on the entire slate. Paying up for Gravely may prove to be contrarian despite the huge ceiling he carries. This is a spot I want exposure to.
Low tier: Wellington Turman $7200
In a week with two five-round underdogs projected to be highly owned in DFS, other underdogs have fallen to the side. While I’ll of course have exposure to all four main-event fighters, I do think there is some solid value on this slate toward the bottom of the pricing range. My favorite underdog this week is Wellington Turman, who is a sizable underdog to Rodolfo Vieira in the prelims. Vieira is a very dangerous grappler who has the ability to win this fight early, but Turman is a strong grappler in his own right, and if he’s able to survive the early rounds I expect him to take over late in the fight. Vieira is extremely stiff and has about five minutes of cardio, which we’ve seen multiple times in his UFC career. I think Turman pulls off the upset and has a chance for an optimal score at just $7.2K.
