UFC Vegas 268 DFS Picks

Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2! The UFC is finishing off back-to-back PPV weeks in New York City this weekend for UFC 268 following their numbered event in Abu Dhabi last weekend. The card is currently a whopping 14 fights and includes two separate five-round fights with both the welterweight and strawweight titles on the line. With more fights than normal, we have to change our process a little bit when it comes to game theory. With more fighters in the player pool, it all but guarantees that the winning lineup will require six fighters who not only won their fights but did so with a ceiling score. This should force us to focus more on ceiling and potential ownership leverage plays as opposed to normal win equity like we might focus on for an eight-fight slate. I’ll be in the FTNDaily Discord leading up to Saturday’s slate to discuss last-minute changes and additional general slate strategy!

If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.

In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups. 

High-tier: Kamaru Usman $9300

Oftentimes in this article I like to feature some off-the-board plays who figure to be lower-owned than other fighters in their price range for GPP purposes. But sometimes DFS can be as simple as “just play the best plays.” To me, this week feels like a “play the best plays” scenario at the top of the DK pricing. Usman is the clear #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport right now, is one of the larger favorites on the slate and has a potential five-round ceiling/floor combination. Usman knocked out Covington in their first fight at UFC 245 in December 2019, and I’m expecting a similar result this weekend. Usman scored 130 DK points in their first matchup. Usman has scored more than 100 DK points in nine of his last 10 fights, including five 125+ point performances. While this is a larger slate and it’s possible that Usman might not be optimal at 100-105 points, he clearly projects as the best play on the slate. Usman will come with heavy ownership, but I’m happy to eat that chalk and differentiate elsewhere. 

Mid-tier: Justin Gaethje $8900

It kind of feels like cheating to include an $8900 fighter as my mid-range ($8K-$8.9K) target for this article, so I save it for special occasions like the one on Saturday. Gaethje takes on Michael Chandler in a fight that is -285 to end inside the distance (nearly 75% implied probability of a finish). Basically, this is a fight where the winner is expected to get their hand raised following a finish, and the winner should put up a ceiling score. Now, the only hard part left for DFS players is trying to pick the winner. Gaethje is perhaps my strongest conviction play on this slate, at least compared to how he is priced on DK. I think Chandler and Gaethje will brawl on Saturday night, and Gaethje holds clear advantages in both power and durability. Chandler, on the other hand, is not a durable fighter, and I expect his lights to be shut out early. I’m starting a lot of builds with Usman/Gaethje this weekend. 

Low-tier: Edmen Shahbazyan $7700 

When it comes to slates as big as UFC 268, I often mention how important it becomes to hunt “ceiling” performances for our fighters. Picking six fighters in DFS who get their hand raised on Saturday night will likely be enough to min-cash, but in order to take down big prizes this weekend it’s likely that lineups will require six ceiling scores. The outcome most correlated with a ceiling score in MMA DFS is a first-round finish, and that’s the exact approach that Shahbazyan enters each fight with. Edmen has dropped consecutive fights and seems to be at an early crossroads in his career right now while drawing a difficult matchup against Nassourdine Imavov. But if we know one thing about Shahbazyan, it’s that he is going to hunt down early finishes. In his four UFC wins, Shahbazyan has three first-round knockouts and has scored 95+ DK points in all four victories. He is in no way a lock to win on Saturday night, but his most likely path to win this fight would come with a massive DK score.