Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira! The UFC is kicking off back-to-back PPV weeks in Abu Dhabi this weekend on Yas Island. The card is currently a whopping 15 fights and includes two separate five-round fights with both the bantamweight and light heavyweight titles on the line. With more fights than normal, we have to change our process a little bit when it comes to game theory. With more fighters in the player pool, it all but guarantees that the winning lineup will require six fighters who not only won their fights but did so with a ceiling score. This should force us to focus more on ceiling and potential ownership leverage plays as opposed to normal win equity like we might focus on for an eight-fight slate. I’ll be in the FTNDaily Discord leading up to Saturday’s slate to discuss last-minute changes and additional general slate strategy!
If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.
In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups.
High-tier: Khamzat Chimaev $9500
After bursting onto the UFC scene in July with three consecutive stoppage victories, Chimaev will finally return to the Octagon this weekend against Li Jingliang following a 13-month layoff. While many people who have been following me for a while know that I’m not sold on Chimaev being some lock to become UFC champion the way many others seem to think, there is no denying this is a great matchup for him. Chimaev is an extremely high-level wrestler and has put up DK scores of 122, 122, and 127 in his three UFC appearances. There is no doubt that the “Leech” is Chimaev’s toughest opponent to date, but he is also a guy who has struggled to defend takedowns throughout his career (59% takedown defense), and that bodes extremely well for Chimaev’s chances to score cumulative points in addition to a potential finish. He projects as one of the best plays on the slate, championship fighters included.
Mid-tier: Andre Petroski $8600
This is not the first time that Petroski has found his way into this article, as he scored 106 DK points as a featured fighter in this piece during his UFC debut against Micheal Gilmore this past August. Petroski is a solid wrestler with lots of strength that he uses to bully opponents. He faces Hu Yaozong this weekend, who has yet to win inside the UFC and has been taken down and dominated by grapplers and mid-level fighters like Cyril Asker. The main issue I have with Petroski is I just don’t think he’s very good, he has poor cardio and his striking is not as fluid as it could be. However, against this type of competition, I do expect him to land takedowns early and often while having multiple chances to win the fight.
Low-tier: Cory Sandhagen $7400
Let’s start this portion of the article off stating that all four of the championship fighters this weekend make for fantastic DFS plays. Blachowicz ($9000) is the biggest favorite and most likely to win inside the distance, Petr Yan ($8800) is the favorite in the other title fight and has historically been a high-volume, high-upside DFS target. Teixeira ($7200) is the fighter least likely to win, but he also will come at the lowest ownership, and a win would give him a very good chance to be in the optimal lineup. That said, my favorite DFS play from the group is Sandhagen, who presents not only a great combination of floor and ceiling, but I actually think he has a decent chance to win this fight as an underdog. While Yan is truly an elite talent, Sandhagen is a tough puzzle to solve with his length and footwork during striking exchanges. Sandhagen is not only a solid play in GPPs, but I think his fight against Yan is stackable in cash game formats, as we just saw them score 60 and 90 points in their last fights without the win bonus.
