Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The UFC touches down in Paris once again this week, but this time for a fight night headlined by heavyweights Ciryl Gane and Serghei Spivac. Gane is coming off a loss to current heavyweight champion Jon Jones, and Spivac is riding a three-fight win streak in hopes of turning a win this weekend into a title shot.
The co-main event features Rose Namajunes as she debuts at 125 pounds against Manon Fiorot. We also have the return of “The God of War,” Benoit Saint-Denis, as he tests himself against veteran Thiago Moises.
There are five fights on the main card and 11 fights altogether. Below, I’ll break down the main card from a betting perspective and produce a best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Gane vs. Spivac Odds
Ciryl Gane -165, Serghei Spivac +145
With redemption on his mind, Gane steps back into the octagon after waking up from a nightmare called Jon Jones. Until Gane fought Jones earlier this year, he was considered one of the next big stars. He still has some star power, which will be evident this weekend when he fights in front of his home fans. Gane is remarkable for a heavyweight. He possesses a particular set of skills that sets him apart from other heavyweights. In the striking department, Gane displays a masterful blend of muay Thai and kickboxing. In the grappling department, Gane has shown skill, and while he does have finishes by submission in the UFC, those finishes were more opportunistic than actual skill. If there is a flaw in Gane’s game, it has to be on the ground and his ability to get back up. In some of the biggest fights of his career, he has wilted under immense pressure. Against Francis Ngannou, Gane was taken down and held down, which lost him the fight and exposed the glaring hole in his game. He would bounce back with a win over Tai Tuivasa, but the weakness in his game would rear its ugly head when he fought Jon Jones. Again, Gane couldn’t withstand the pressure of the moment, and once he was taken down, he froze and, this time, was finished. Against Ngannou, it was perhaps the gas tank and the battle they had already fought that prevented him from getting back up, but against Jones, he wilted. Now he’s up against Serghei Spivac, another big heavyweight who will certainly test Gane’s grappling.
Spivac has been climbing the heavyweight ranks since 2019. 7-3 in the UFC and currently on a three-fight win streak, the fighter from Moldova has fought the likes of Tai Tuivasa, Marcin Tybura, Greg Hardy, Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis. Averaging over eight minutes of fight time, Spivac doesn’t go to the judges’ scorecard much. He utilizes a masterful blend of judo and wrestling to defeat and maul his opponents. “The Polar Bear” doesn’t shy away from his game plan, averaging five takedowns per 15 minutes to land devastating ground and pound. Still, while many may think that Spivacs wrestling will be enough to be Gane, I don’t. Sure, Ngannou held down Gane, and sure, Jon Jones finished him in under two minutes. But what both instances have in common is the significance of the moment. In both fights, Gane was fighting for the belt, and both times, I believe the moment and not the Wrestling was too much to handle. He’s never shown a weakness in his grappling before those fights, and this weekend, against a one-dimensional Grappler, he’s going to put on a show.
From a betting perspective, the level of competition between Gane and Spivac up until this point is worlds apart, and I can’t back Spivac solely because of his grappling. Spivac doesn’t have the striking to compete with Gane, and while he does have the size and weight advantage, if he can’t keep Gane down and create damage, I don’t see another path to victory and an inevitable finish for Gane.
Bet: Ciryl Gane by KO/TKO or submission -120
Namajunes vs. Fiorot Odds
Rose Namajunes +170, Manon Fiorot -210
Since the beginning, Namajunes has been on the path to stardom. She made a name for herself on The Ultimate Fighter just as the UFC created a strawweight division. She made the finals using her dynamic movement, strikes and grappling. Namajunes is a well-rounded fighter but also very likable by the fans. Even after a loss to Carla Esparza in the show finals, the fans wanted to see more of her, and because of that, she earned a contract. Her story of overcoming obstacles resonated in a lot of her fights. Watching her overcome the boogeyman that was Joanna Jedrzejczyk, then beating the unbeatable Zhang Weili twice. Namajunes has been to the mountaintop and has defended her belt against the best the UFC has to offer. Now, in a new division, she’s up against “The Beast,” Manon Fiorot.
Fiorot came into the UFC on short notice and immediately put the division on with a stoppage win over Victoria Leonardo. She would then starch Tabatha Ricci in under three rounds, and since those stoppages, Fiorot has looked good but not spectacular. Fiorot is a high-volume, aggressive striker. She averages nearly three times the number of significant strikes from Namajunes, and she also has the size and strength edge. As she rises in competition level, this fight with Namajunes is a blessing for Fiorot because she gets to test herself against a former champion who is also well-rounded and dangerous on the feet. If Fiorot can utilize her size and strength to bully Namajunes and make it ugly, she can win this fight. Namajunes has fought strong opponents, but the difference between fighters like Jessica Andrade and Manon Fiorot is the size and the fact that Fiorot blends her martial arts better. I can see why some people are going to lean with Namanjunes. The experience of fighting at the highest levels could pay dividends. But that experience was in a lower weight class with much smaller women. Because of that reason, I will side with Manon Fiorot because when push comes to shove, I will want to be on the side with size and strength at their disposal.
Bet: Manon Fiorot in Round 3 or decision -110
St. Denis vs. Moises Odds
Benoit Saint Denis -155, Thiago Moises +135
Perhaps the most challenging fight on the card to break down is also one of the most exciting. Moises and Saint-Denis are two of the most exciting and dangerous fighters in the lightweight division. Moises was supposed to fight earlier this month, but his opponent pulled out, and now the fans in Paris get a treat. The God of War, Saint-Denis, welcomes the Brazilian to his home soil, where he has yet to lose. The former special forces agent is currently on a three-fight win streak that started after his debut loss in 2021. At times, still green in his approach, Denis has proven tough, beyond durable, and hits like a truck. In four UFC fights, he has three finishes, all coming before the third round. His most recent win was against UFC rising star Ismael Bonfim. He went into that fight as a +250 underdog and dominated. The same could happen here, but the challenge is much more significant against a specialist like Moises.
Thiago Moises has been with the promotion since 2018 and has gone 6-4 with an overall record of 17-6-0. He has fought names like Beneil Dairush and Michael Johnson and even went four rounds with current champion Islam Makhachev. He has proven tough and challenging on the ground, but his durability as of late has been questionable. He has only been stopped twice in an MMA fight, but the way he was finished against Joel Alvarez recently is concerning for a few reasons. For one, Moises has been fighting since 2012, and his being finished by Alvarez perhaps showed that his durability has reached its limit. Secondly, even though Moises can grapple, his output sometimes is not enough to create entries for his takedowns, and he has to endure damage. Damage that is undoubtedly to come if Benoit connects cleanly. Lastly, when the fight goes to the ground, the size and strength of Saint-Denis, coupled with his output, should be more than enough to combat the grappling work from Moises.
This fight has the potential to be the fight of the night, and I’m going to side with the god of war because of his strength, durability and power.
Bet: Benoit Saint-Denis ML -150
Guskov vs. Oezdemir Odds
Bogdan Guskov +145, Volkan Oezdemir -170
Oezdemir finds himself in an odd spot at the moment. He’s currently 6-6 in the UFC and coming off a loss to Nikita Krylov. Oezdemir has fought top talent since his short-notice debut in 2017 against Ovince St. Preux. He would start his career in the UFC on a three-fight win streak that landed him a title shot against former champion Daniel Cormier. After that loss, he would go on to fight Anthony Smith and Dominick Reyes and lose both fights. Oezdemir bounced back with a breakout win against Alexander Rakic in 2019, But once again, he would hit the ceiling and suffer two more losses at the hands of Jiri Prochazka and Magomed Ankalaev.
With another win and another loss, the trend seems to continue for Oezdemir, as every time he takes two steps forward, he suffers a loss and takes a step back. Now Oezdemir looks to bounce back against a hammer from Uzbekistan named Bogdan Guskov. All of Guskovs’ fights leading up to this short-notice opportunity have ended before the second round. He’s tall, powerful, wrestles well, and packs dynamite in his right hand. The problem for me is his level of competition on the regional scene. Understandably, some fighters choose lower-level opposition to create highlights, but if all Bogdan can do is create chaos and hasn’t proven that he can withstand a fight going into deep waters. Then, all Oezdemir will have to do is resist the first-round thunder and catch Guskov with lighting in the second round and beyond.
Everyone looks good swimming in the shallow end. It’s when you drag them into deep waters that you start to see the technique and what the opponent has to survive. I’m going with Volkan Oezdemir to welcome Bogdan Guskov to the ufc violently.
Bet: Volkan Oezdemir by KO/TKO or submission -120 | Oezdemir in Rounds 1 or 2 -105
Ghemmouri vs. Gomis Odds
Yanis Ghemmouri +185, William Gomis -215
Gomis is a quick athlete with seemingly unlimited potential. The Frenchman is 2-0 in the UFC, with wins over Jarno Errans and Francis Marshall. In those fights, he showed two different gears. In the Marshall fight, he displayed the ability to move in and out of the pocket and use his movement and athleticism to stay outside and pick Marshall apart. In the Errens fight, he made it a grind and did his work in the clinch and also displayed his wrestling chops.
This weekend, Gomis was to do battle against his first real test in Lucas Almeida, but a quick shuffle of the deck has now put him up against debutant Ghemmouri. The Desert Warrior is a well-rounded fighter who makes his money being methodical when he strikes and is dangerous on the ground with his grappling. Ghemmouri has won most of his fights by decision and by submission. Ghemmouri has a future in the UFC, no doubt, but this short-notice bout will be tough against a much bigger opponent that utilizes speed and size and leverages them well.
Bet: William Gomis by decision +100
